stuard la pensa esattamente come me
System: Active buy signal from 1086. Previous 4 signals were sells at 1190, 1164, 1124 and 1082. Weekly trend down with resistance at 1174. Daily trend neutral-to-up with resistance at the 200dSMA and 20dSMA. Hourly trend up with support at 1088.85. Be disciplined enough to never trade against the hourly trend, only trade conservatively against the daily trend, only reload when momentum neutralizes then reconfirms trend and take profits along the way.
Opinion: SPX is up against the 200dSMA and OEW 1107 pivot area I mentioned yesterday. I still think it will break through but it may backtest 1085-1095 first. I see 3 possible micro bearish counts.
1. SPX has (nearly) completed ABCXA. If so, the next sizable B-wave pullback will not break 1065 and likely would not break 1090 by much if any before finishing with a final high, since a 30% retrace of 1066-->1104=1092ish currently.
2. SPX is completing ABCXABC. If so, SPX will likely test 1110-1120 before failing and breaking 1090 easily.
3. SPX has (nearly) completed a 5-wave A (1041-->1104=63pts). If so, SPX should retrace 30-50% currently targeting 1072-1085.
You can see that all 3 scenarios should not fall below 1065. Scenario #2 requires more upside before SPX breaks 1094, while scenarios #1 and #3 don't allow much if any upside in the morning. There is upper hourly BB20 and 89hSMA resistance at 1110ish. So, if the 1115 gap gets filled in the morning, there is only one likely scenario in my eyes and SPX will top Fri/Tues. I don't like this scenario b/c the last 6 months have seen the last 2 trading days of the month close lower than they started (not likely this month but bias is down), daily RSI will not have corrected enough and holidays and beginnings of months are generally bullish.
If SPX falls below 1094 but holds 1090ish Friday, we should see Scenario #1 with one more 5-wave up move to test the 1115 gap Tues/Wed. If SPX falls much below 1090, I think there is a strong chance for Scenario #3 in which SPX will rally harder and higher as early as Friday afternoon into Wed/Thu. Bears need to see 1072 and then 1065 broken. I kinda like Scenario #3 because bears will jump on board again as 1090 is broken hoping not to miss the boat only to be squeezed again allowing for the 1115-1120+ and the even higher 1130+ I've been speaking of. And, scenario #3 is allowed by my 5-wave RSI guidelines, would allow daily RSI to correct more and fit better with a retrace of 1220 in my preferred count (1220-->1041=w1), not a retrace of 1174. I'll make another interesting observation. The hourly RSI achieved at 1209, 1205 and 1174 has now been surpassed. In my book, that finally confirms that the wave structure down from 1220 is complete. It does not prevent a new structure down from starting immediately. However, I now expect daily RSI to follow suit by surpassing some previous RSI highs. One must keep an open mind to the possibility that 1220-->1041 was the entire wave 1 down. Most bears believe we are in a 1-2-1-2. In my preferred count, those bears will be disheartend if SPX surpasses 1107 and very worried if it surpasses 1122 (those are 50% and 62% retraces of 1174 respectively). And, they may have to endure whipsaw Scenario #3 above too. And, they will be expecting one more down wave when SPX does finally finish at 850-950. Sound familiar from 667? Can you say massive short squeeze? For this to market trick to work on bears, SPX needs to break the 20dSMA and 1122 without breaking the 50dSMA and 1174. When SPX hit 1056, my upside SWAG was 1148. I may adjust that slightly as action unfolds.
Based on all the above, I recommend profit-taking on any longs if SPX rises at all on Friday morning although 1110ish would be likeliest. My system does not recommend trading short right now, but I think SPX will backtest 1085-1095 and then likely bounce hard. However, keep in mind my intermediate downside target of 850-950 is huge risk, so the long side should be played very carefully. Good luck.
