Vespasianus
Princeps thermarum
Trascrizione della conferrenza stampa del Fmi (del 26/1), riportata la parte riguardante la Grecia.
QUESTIONER: So the new DSA has been given to the members of the Executive Board, and if you have a date when it's going to be discussed there. And also if you have anything to share from the Eurogroup, which if I'm not mistaken is still ongoing?
MR. MURRAY: Right. Of course because the Eurogroup is ongoing, I'm not going to have specific comments there, and you guys know that. But let me give you some basics today. The Executive Board is expected to discuss the Article IV and the ex-post evaluation reports on February 6. We expect publication of those reports will follow shortly after that Board date and will be in line with our usual practices.
QUESTIONER: So according to some information, the DSA describes once again the Greek debt as highly unsustainable. So my question is, how are you planning to move forward when the Europeans say that the medium-term debt measures have already been described, and there will be no further changes?
MR. MURRAY: Okay. Well, we've been pretty clear, I mean, I think all along. My message to you on Greece in that regard is not going to change today. As you know we issued a statement -- what -- last week after a meeting between the Managing Director and the German Finance Minister in Davos. There is really no change in our views in terms of the sustainability of a Fund program. So that's where we stand.
QUESTIONER: Are you still planning to participate with the program although the other partners do not agree with what you think is necessary in terms of targets and debt measures? Are you planning to participate? When are you going to answer this question?
MR. MURRAY: Well, you know, we've been fully engaged all along. We remain fully engaged with the Greeks and with the Commission in terms of the ESM program and review. Let me give you a little bit further flavor regarding the ongoing review, the second review of the ESM. You know, the requirements for the conclusion of the second review of the EMS program are for our European partners to decide, number one. And what concerns a potential Fund financing program, we have made it clear that we need to see that the program adds up before we can recommend it to our Executive Board for consideration.
And, again, to repeat what we've said in communications, and senior management of the Fund has said many times, we do not think Greece needs more austerity now, and we can go along with a program with a primary surplus target of 1.5 percent of GDP, consistent with the policies now underway, and a commensurate debt relief. But if Greece and its European partners decide on a higher primary surplus for a temporary period, we would need to evaluate the policies that could credibly support that target.
So in our view, there's a number of reforms that we've articulated in the past, and they're long overdue, and we think they would be necessary to support a higher target and to allow for a more equitable distribution of the burden of economic adjustment in Greece. But any reforms in support of an ambitious medium-term fiscal target should be implemented only once the output gap closes and to minimize the negative impact on just an early recovery in Greece.
QUESTIONER: If I may, it seems to me that you are in disagreement with both, with Greek government and with your European partners. If the Greek government insists on not taking additional austerity measures -- the prime minister said so; he made a statement yesterday -- and if the Europeans do not deal effectively with that issue, what are you going to do? So simple.
MR. MURRAY: It may be simple, but let's wait until we make those simple decisions as you characterize. I can't -- you're asking me to leap ahead of a process that's underway right now, as you well know. Until that process plays out I'm not going to speculate.
You, and then him.
QUESTIONER: I'm a bit confused. In practice, does the second review go hand in hand with IMF participation? Because the second review has been delayed. I know that you're not part of this current program, but increasingly in Europe people are saying that unless -- European officials meaning -- that unless the IMF is part of the program, the ESM program will not proceed either. So it becomes -- do you feel the pressure by your European partners to decide in order for this ESM program to still stand, and Greece not come to you afterwards without any European program, just for IMF funding? And also do you feel the pressure that you have to take that decision by February? Some officials are saying.
MR. MURRAY: Yeah. I mean hopefully by the end of the process, we’re not all confused, right, so I think it will be clear as we go along. As we have said, and I’m just repeating, we’re fully engaged in the process. I mean, some of what you’re asking me there is really for the Europeans to explain, not the IMF.
We are fully engaged. The managing director has made that clear, that we remain fully engaged in the process, and we will see how it plays out in the coming weeks. But I don’t have any specific deadlines to set or any issues to raise in that context.
QUESTIONER: Still on Greece, actually. One point of detail, first. The DSA will be part that you’re going to publish, right?
MR. MURRAY: Correct.
On this time line, the IMF missed its own deadline in the last year, because you were saying that you were going to make a decision by the end of the year, which you did not.
My question is, is it really realistic to assume that the IMF can make a decision before elections in France and Germany? I’m not talking about a general deadline, but l can you guarantee you are in the position of making a decision this year in spite of these electoral events?
MR. MURRAY: Yeah. You know, I can’t make any guarantees in any context, whether its European, Asian, Western Hemispheric. Putting together a program is a complicated process, as you all know. There are many variables, many dynamics.
We are actively engaged in Greece. The Europeans have been actively engaged on Greece for some time. I can’t speculate on what election factors -- what role election factors will play in IMF timing. In the end, it boils down to policy implementation or policy commitments and implementation.
Beyond that, I can’t speculate about what the implications of elections in various European nations will mean for the Greece program.
QUESTIONER: How long can it last? You’ve been talking about that for maybe more than a year now. Can we expect a decision by the IMF this year, by the end of the year?
MR. MURRAY: Well, we’re working in concert with the Greeks and the European partners to try to come to an agreement as soon as practical and possible.
[...]
QUESTIONER: From the IMF perspectives, do you feel you have to wait for a new representative, a new Executive Director by the U.S., in order to make that decision?
MR. MURRAY: The impact of -- the Executive Board, as far as I’ve seen, is fully functional. We have had a number of activities, so it’s fully functioning. I’m not aware of any issues regarding what you just raised. No, I’m not aware of that being a specific issue.
QUESTIONER: Recently, Mr. Schäuble said that for the very first time it is possible to have a good program without the IMF participation, and the German media says he has been preparing alternative plans. My question is can you comment on that? There seems to be a new discussion about the scenario.
MR. MURRAY: I don’t have anything specific other than to refer you back to the statement that was issued after Mr. Schäuble and the Managing Director met in Davos. That’s all I have on that.
[...]
QUESTIONER: Who participated today on your behalf in the Eurogroup? I have seen some report that Mr. Thomsen didn’t go.
MR. MURRAY: I’ll have to get back to you on that. It may be Delia. I have to double check on that; I’m not positive.
QUESTIONER: There are reports that Mrs. Lagarde and Mr. Schäuble agreed for the IMF participation in Davos. Do you deny these reports?
MR. MURRAY: Deny? I mean, basically we stated in Davos we remain fully engaged in the process. That’s what we said.
QUESTIONER: But the reports actually said they agreed for the IMF participation.
MR. MURRAY: I’m not denying anything. We’re still fully engaged. What we said -- I get back to my original point, which is we’d like to see 1.5 percent primary surplus, so it’s in that context. Certain things have to fall into place, but we certainly remain --
QUESTIONER: (Inaudible)
MR. MURRAY: When we come to our Board, we have to have a program that’s sustainable, that adds up. We are still in that process.
QUESTIONER: (Inaudible)
MR. MURRAY: Like I said, I’m hopeful. We hope for the best.
Transcript - IMF Press Briefing
QUESTIONER: So the new DSA has been given to the members of the Executive Board, and if you have a date when it's going to be discussed there. And also if you have anything to share from the Eurogroup, which if I'm not mistaken is still ongoing?
MR. MURRAY: Right. Of course because the Eurogroup is ongoing, I'm not going to have specific comments there, and you guys know that. But let me give you some basics today. The Executive Board is expected to discuss the Article IV and the ex-post evaluation reports on February 6. We expect publication of those reports will follow shortly after that Board date and will be in line with our usual practices.
QUESTIONER: So according to some information, the DSA describes once again the Greek debt as highly unsustainable. So my question is, how are you planning to move forward when the Europeans say that the medium-term debt measures have already been described, and there will be no further changes?
MR. MURRAY: Okay. Well, we've been pretty clear, I mean, I think all along. My message to you on Greece in that regard is not going to change today. As you know we issued a statement -- what -- last week after a meeting between the Managing Director and the German Finance Minister in Davos. There is really no change in our views in terms of the sustainability of a Fund program. So that's where we stand.
QUESTIONER: Are you still planning to participate with the program although the other partners do not agree with what you think is necessary in terms of targets and debt measures? Are you planning to participate? When are you going to answer this question?
MR. MURRAY: Well, you know, we've been fully engaged all along. We remain fully engaged with the Greeks and with the Commission in terms of the ESM program and review. Let me give you a little bit further flavor regarding the ongoing review, the second review of the ESM. You know, the requirements for the conclusion of the second review of the EMS program are for our European partners to decide, number one. And what concerns a potential Fund financing program, we have made it clear that we need to see that the program adds up before we can recommend it to our Executive Board for consideration.
And, again, to repeat what we've said in communications, and senior management of the Fund has said many times, we do not think Greece needs more austerity now, and we can go along with a program with a primary surplus target of 1.5 percent of GDP, consistent with the policies now underway, and a commensurate debt relief. But if Greece and its European partners decide on a higher primary surplus for a temporary period, we would need to evaluate the policies that could credibly support that target.
So in our view, there's a number of reforms that we've articulated in the past, and they're long overdue, and we think they would be necessary to support a higher target and to allow for a more equitable distribution of the burden of economic adjustment in Greece. But any reforms in support of an ambitious medium-term fiscal target should be implemented only once the output gap closes and to minimize the negative impact on just an early recovery in Greece.
QUESTIONER: If I may, it seems to me that you are in disagreement with both, with Greek government and with your European partners. If the Greek government insists on not taking additional austerity measures -- the prime minister said so; he made a statement yesterday -- and if the Europeans do not deal effectively with that issue, what are you going to do? So simple.
MR. MURRAY: It may be simple, but let's wait until we make those simple decisions as you characterize. I can't -- you're asking me to leap ahead of a process that's underway right now, as you well know. Until that process plays out I'm not going to speculate.
You, and then him.
QUESTIONER: I'm a bit confused. In practice, does the second review go hand in hand with IMF participation? Because the second review has been delayed. I know that you're not part of this current program, but increasingly in Europe people are saying that unless -- European officials meaning -- that unless the IMF is part of the program, the ESM program will not proceed either. So it becomes -- do you feel the pressure by your European partners to decide in order for this ESM program to still stand, and Greece not come to you afterwards without any European program, just for IMF funding? And also do you feel the pressure that you have to take that decision by February? Some officials are saying.
MR. MURRAY: Yeah. I mean hopefully by the end of the process, we’re not all confused, right, so I think it will be clear as we go along. As we have said, and I’m just repeating, we’re fully engaged in the process. I mean, some of what you’re asking me there is really for the Europeans to explain, not the IMF.
We are fully engaged. The managing director has made that clear, that we remain fully engaged in the process, and we will see how it plays out in the coming weeks. But I don’t have any specific deadlines to set or any issues to raise in that context.
QUESTIONER: Still on Greece, actually. One point of detail, first. The DSA will be part that you’re going to publish, right?
MR. MURRAY: Correct.
On this time line, the IMF missed its own deadline in the last year, because you were saying that you were going to make a decision by the end of the year, which you did not.
My question is, is it really realistic to assume that the IMF can make a decision before elections in France and Germany? I’m not talking about a general deadline, but l can you guarantee you are in the position of making a decision this year in spite of these electoral events?
MR. MURRAY: Yeah. You know, I can’t make any guarantees in any context, whether its European, Asian, Western Hemispheric. Putting together a program is a complicated process, as you all know. There are many variables, many dynamics.
We are actively engaged in Greece. The Europeans have been actively engaged on Greece for some time. I can’t speculate on what election factors -- what role election factors will play in IMF timing. In the end, it boils down to policy implementation or policy commitments and implementation.
Beyond that, I can’t speculate about what the implications of elections in various European nations will mean for the Greece program.
QUESTIONER: How long can it last? You’ve been talking about that for maybe more than a year now. Can we expect a decision by the IMF this year, by the end of the year?
MR. MURRAY: Well, we’re working in concert with the Greeks and the European partners to try to come to an agreement as soon as practical and possible.
[...]
QUESTIONER: From the IMF perspectives, do you feel you have to wait for a new representative, a new Executive Director by the U.S., in order to make that decision?
MR. MURRAY: The impact of -- the Executive Board, as far as I’ve seen, is fully functional. We have had a number of activities, so it’s fully functioning. I’m not aware of any issues regarding what you just raised. No, I’m not aware of that being a specific issue.
QUESTIONER: Recently, Mr. Schäuble said that for the very first time it is possible to have a good program without the IMF participation, and the German media says he has been preparing alternative plans. My question is can you comment on that? There seems to be a new discussion about the scenario.
MR. MURRAY: I don’t have anything specific other than to refer you back to the statement that was issued after Mr. Schäuble and the Managing Director met in Davos. That’s all I have on that.
[...]
QUESTIONER: Who participated today on your behalf in the Eurogroup? I have seen some report that Mr. Thomsen didn’t go.
MR. MURRAY: I’ll have to get back to you on that. It may be Delia. I have to double check on that; I’m not positive.
QUESTIONER: There are reports that Mrs. Lagarde and Mr. Schäuble agreed for the IMF participation in Davos. Do you deny these reports?
MR. MURRAY: Deny? I mean, basically we stated in Davos we remain fully engaged in the process. That’s what we said.
QUESTIONER: But the reports actually said they agreed for the IMF participation.
MR. MURRAY: I’m not denying anything. We’re still fully engaged. What we said -- I get back to my original point, which is we’d like to see 1.5 percent primary surplus, so it’s in that context. Certain things have to fall into place, but we certainly remain --
QUESTIONER: (Inaudible)
MR. MURRAY: When we come to our Board, we have to have a program that’s sustainable, that adds up. We are still in that process.
QUESTIONER: (Inaudible)
MR. MURRAY: Like I said, I’m hopeful. We hope for the best.
Transcript - IMF Press Briefing