Pareto Credit Research key takeaways from the Gotham report:
The report's arguments are overly bold and somewhat far-fetched, which is typical for such reports, but they contradict the purpose of Mutares' business model.
Furthermore, the report fails to highlight Mutares' recent improvements, including two major exits (SMP and Frigoscandia) that generated significant cash inflow.
Why are group-level earnings driven by badwill from acquisitions? This is due to the nature of Mutares’ business model. With each acquisition, Mutares generates a badwill, as they are acquiring loss-making companies. The badwill has a significant positive impact on earnings on group level, and therefore the earnings on group level are not the right KPIs to look at.
The report highlights a high cash burn of EUR 118m over the past four years, but this figure is one-sided as it does not account for nearly 50 acquisitions made over the past 3-4 years. Mutares contributes equity to acquired companies, ranging from EUR 2-3m to EUR 10-15m per company, averaging an equity contribution of EUR 350m, exceeding what has been raised in equity and debt. By the end of H1 2024, the invested amount in Mutares' portfolio was EUR 450m.
The report claims a high amount of receivables from portfolio companies, which has grown with the company's increasing size. In 2019/2020, Mutares had around 10 portfolio companies with less than EUR 1bn in revenue; today, it has more than 30 companies generating around EUR 6bn. We see the increase as a result of the increased portfolio size
As of the end of H1, receivables from portfolio companies amounted to EUR 390m, with the report suggesting these stems from non-cash consulting fees.
While an exact breakdown is not available, it is estimated that about 70%, or EUR 260m, of the receivables are related to shareholder loans provided to portfolio companies.
So overall, the report does not provide any real news or any points that would change our view on the company and its management. Most of the points mentioned have always been topics discussed with management and investors.