Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate, vol.3

fedro10 · Oggi alle 08:19

Frankfurt am Main, September 25, 2025 -- Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today affirmed the Ba2 long term corporate family rating (CFR), the Ba2 senior secured instrument ratings and the Ba2-PD probability of default rating (PDR) of IHO Verwaltungs GmbH (IHO-V or group). The outlook for the entity remains negative.

"The affirmation recognizes the recent improvement in IHO-V's market-value based net leverage, which is back in line with our expectations for its Ba2 rating, and the company's good liquidity", said Matthias Heck, a Moody's Ratings Vice President – Senior Credit Officer and Lead Analyst for IHO-V. "At the same time, recent refinancing at higher interest rates has weakened IHO-V's interest cover, which overall leaves the rating weakly positioned", added Mr. Heck.

RATINGS RATIONALE

IHO-V's market value based net leverage (MVL) has improved from 51% in September 2024 to below 40% since August 2025 and amounted to 36% as of 22 September 2025. The improvement was largely driven by the positive share price performance of the group's key assets, Continental AG (Continental, IHO-V stake: 36%) and Schaeffler AG (Schaeffler, IHO-V stake: 69.2%).

Furthermore, on 18 September 2025, Continental spun-off Aumovio SE (Aumovio) as a separately listed entity. As a result, our MVL calculation now also includes IHO-V's 36% stake in Aumovio. The ownership of a third distinct listed asset gives IHO-V additional flexibility to monetise its holding, if need be, after the six-month lock-up period.

Despite the recent improvement in MVL, IHO-V's interest cover continues to be weak for the rating. The company's funds from operations (FFO)/interest will further reduce to around 1.4x in 2025 (adjusted for a one-off withholding tax effect; 1.2x after one-off), from 2.0x in 2024. The decline has been largely driven by higher interest rates, following the group's recent refinancing measures that extended the debt maturity profile. In addition, lower dividend collections from Schaeffler were only partially offset by higher payments from Continental.

For 2026, we expect only moderate improvements in the ratio to around 1.5x, driven by Continental's increased target dividend payout ratio of 40%-60%, compared to previously 20%-40%. As a result, we forecast IHO-V's FFO/interest cover to remain below 2.0x in 2026, which limits the company's ability to reduce debt levels meaningfully. While we can temporarily accept weaker ratios, a sustained FFO/interest cover below 2x could lead to a rating downgrade.

This calculation, however, does not include effects from a potential special dividend paid by Continental. Continental is currently undergoing a transformational process, which also includes the planned sale of its ContiTech subsidiary, scheduled for 2026. Depending on the disposal price and the leverage of the remaining part of Continental, the payment of a sizeable special dividend is possible. The special dividend could lift the FFO/interest coverage to comfortably above 2.0x in the year of payment, further improve IHO-V's MVL, and provide funds for debt and consequent interest reduction at IHO-V's level.

The Ba2 CFR continues to reflect as strengths IHO-V's large size; the ownership of sizeable stakes in three high-quality listed assets; and good liquidity. Conversely, factors constraining the rating include some concentration risk from IHO-V's dependence on dividends from its subsidiaries, which are mostly active in the cyclical automotive industry currently under pressure, and which are undergoing transformational processes (especially Schaeffler and Aumovio); a lack of clearly defined financial policies aimed at preserving a conservative capital structure to offset the concentration risk; limited visibility around dividend payments required by the shareholder; limited reporting at IHO-V's standalone level; and consolidated leverage at still-elevated levels for the rating.

LIQUIDITY

We continue to regard IHO-V's liquidity as good. Supporting this assessment are the group's available internal cash sources, including cash and cash equivalents of around €17 million at the end of June 2025, and its undrawn €1.0 billion revolving credit facility due 2028. The facility contains a leverage covenant, under which we expect IHO-V to maintain adequate capacity over the next 12-18 months.

These funds together with expected dividend collections in 2026 comfortably exceed the group's short-term cash needs, including regular holding costs and taxes, and expected interest payments of around €240 million next year. IHO-V has no debt maturities until 2028.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

We could downgrade IHO-V's ratings if its (1) MVL sustainably exceeds 40%; (2) FFO interest cover remains below 2.0x on a sustainable basis; (3) Moody's adjusted debt/EBITDA remains above 3.0x (2024: 3.5x) and Moody's adjusted EBITA margin fails to recover to above 8% for a prolonged period of time (2024: 4.5%), both based on INA-Holding Schaeffler GmbH & Co. KG statements that fully consolidate Schaeffler and Continental; or (4) liquidity deteriorates.

An upgrade of IHO-V's ratings would require (1) a MVL of 30% or less, and (2) FFO interest cover above 2.5x on a sustainable basis. An upgrade would also require (3) Moody's adjusted debt/EBITDA to be sustained below 2.5x and Moody's adjusted EBITA margin to be improved to around 10%, both based on INA-Holding Schaeffler GmbH & Co. KG's financial statements that fully consolidate Schaeffler and Continental. An upgrade would also require (4) improved reporting at IHO-V level.

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