Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Telecom Europa VI (gennaio - luglio 2009) (1 Viewer)

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Confermato il richiamo anticipato ad aprile del bond Colt Telecom 2009.

Thomson Reuters

BRIEF-Colt Telecom Group redeems loan notes early

04.17.09, 08:17 AM EDT

LONDON, April 17 (Reuters) - COLT Telecom Group SA:

* Completes early redemption of 7.625% senior notes due 2009

* Expected to save approximately EUR 9.7 million of net interest

 

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Se in linea di massima le telecom sono destinate a resistere alla crisi meglio di aziende di altri comparti, non tutte sembrano in grado di confermare indicazioni di crescita moderata anche in questo contesto, come di recente hanno fatto KPN e PT.

Così ad esempio Deutsche Telekom ha ritenuto di dovere rivedere al ribasso il suo outlook per il 2009. D'altronde, non a caso si tratta di un recente pick dei simpatici danesi di Jyske Bank (che qualche lavoretto con i CDS, sotto sotto... )

Intendiamoci, se si pensa alle case automobilistiche che vedono percipitare i fatturati e accumulare debito industriale, viene quasi da sorridere allo stimato calo dell'EBITDA previsto da DT nell'ordine del 2-4% rispetto al 2008 e della conseguente decisione di tagliare il capex per l'anno di 1 mld euro così da raggiungere l'obiettivo di conseguire un FCF di di 6,4 mld euro nel 2009, contro i 7 mld euro preventivati a febbraio.

Peraltro l'EBITDA del Q1/2009, stando a queste anticipazioni, dovrebbe essere salito cresciuto intorno al 3%.

Qualche rischio più serio, in prospettiva, resta in ordine alla forte realizzazione di fatturato in USD, e andrebbe verificato se è stato fatto hedging a fronte di una possibile forte svalutazione del dollaro nel futuro prossimo venturo. Probabilmente è su questo fattore che puntano gli amici della banca danese...

UPDATE 3-Deutsche Telekom slashes outlook as crisis hits

Tue Apr 21, 2009 12:29pm EDT

* Sees core profit down 2-4 percent in 2009
* Had earlier forecast steady adj EBITDA of 19.5 bln eur
* Shares fall more than 10 percent

(Adds details, fresh analyst comment, closing share price)
FRANKFURT, April 21 (Reuters) - The economic crisis finally hit Deutsche Telekom (DTEGn.DE), Europe's biggest telecoms group, as weak conditions and tough competition in major markets forced the company to slash its profit expectations for 2009.

Slumping profit in the United States and Britain as well as the falling Polish zloty and British pound will push down adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) by 2 percent to 4 percent from the 19.5 billion euros ($25.17 billion) in 2008, the company said on Tuesday.

The Bonn-based telecoms group had as late as February predicted profits would remain stable this year, but officials said the worsening environment made that untenable.

"Given the fact that Deutsche Telekom generates half of its total revenues outside the euro zone, negative affects from currency fluctuations might even get worse," said DZ Bank analyst Marcus Pratsch.

"Further risks result from the faster-than-anticipated decline in the U.S. business and from the aggressive competition in the imminent spectrum auctions."

Deutsche Telekom shares (DTEGn.DE) declined as much as 11 percent. They closed down 7.2 percent at 9.01 euros, the leading decliner among firmer German blue chips .GDAXI and European telecom companies.
The DJ Stoxx Telecoms index .SXKP declined 1.8 percent.

Telecommunications, a sector similar to utilities in which demand is usually little influenced from an economic downturn, is showing the first signs of a weakening business situation due to the economic crisis.

Swisscom AG (SCMN.VX) said on Tuesday the crisis will weigh on first-quarter results and niche telecom operator Millicom posted worse-than-expected core earnings in the first quarter.

Deutsche Telekom also competes with British Vodafone (VOD.L), Spain's Telefonica (TEF.MC), France Telecom (FTE.PA) and Telecom Italia (TLIT.MI).

In order to reach free cash flow -- the basis of its dividend -- of 6.4 billion euros in 2009, Telekom is freezing 1 billion euros in capital expenditure, it said.

First-quarter adjusted EBITDA of the German group rose around 3 percent to 4.8 billion euros, it said. It forecast 2009 free cash flow of around 6.4 billion euros versus the 7 billion it had expected in February. (Reporting by Nikola Rotscheroth, Peter Dinkloh, Nicola Leske and Christoph Steitz, writing by Michael Shields and Peter Dinkloh; Editing by Sharon Lindores) ($1=.7748 Euro)

Minideclassamento :

23.04.09 16:25 - Dt: Fitch taglia rating su debito da A- a BBB+

NEW YORK (MF-DJ)--Fitch ha tagliato il rating sul debito di lungo periodo di Deutsche Telekom da A- a BBB+, con outlook stabile.
La decisione dell'agenzia di rating fa seguito al profit warning lanciato ieri dalla societa' sul 2009 a causa delle pressioni legate alle difficolta' dei mercati.

Gli analisti ritengono che le attivita' domestiche del gruppo rimangono difficoltose, in particolare nel settore della linea fissa.

 

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E mentre i simpatici danesi di Jyske bank rilanciano il loro Buy sui bond BCM Ireland Finance - Eirecom, Moody's postula di abbatterne il rating e prospetta l'ipotesi di un distressed exchange come conseguenza degli accordi mirati ad eventuale cessione della società ...

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's places BCM Ireland Finance Ltd's B1 Corporate Family Rating on review for possible downgrade[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Madrid, April 20, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed the ratings of BCM Ireland Finance Ltd (BCMIF) and its affiliated entities on review for possible downgrade. BCMIF is an indirect parent company of eircom. This action follows last week's announcement that eircom's main shareholder Babcock & Brown Capital (BCM) has received an unsolicited EUR95 million offer from Taemas Bridge consortium. Taemas Bridge has three founding partners who were previously associated with Babcock & Brown Ltd. The BCM board is currently evaluating the proposal, alongside others that they have received, and intends to provide a comprehensive strategic update to BCM shareholders at the General Meeting on 27 April 2009. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Regardless of the likelihood of success of these offers, today's action is also prompted by other concerns unrelated to these bids that Moody's has been considering, including among other things: (i) the overall strategic direction of the company (as BCM is believed to be considering alternatives for maximizing the value of its investments); (ii) eircom's weakening performance trends in the midst of enhanced competition, regulatory pressures and an adverse macro economic environment, as well as the impact going forward on meeting future commitments under facility documentation; and (iii) the impact from pension deficits and cost restructuring measures on future cash outflows putting further pressure on free cash flow generation and credit metrics. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The Taemas Bridge offer incorporates elements which could result in a debt restructuring of the restricted group. In this regard, Moody's notes that any restructuring involving a discounted offer on debt components of the capital structure could be considered a distressed exchange and, by implication, a default under Moody's methodologies. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Ratings are placed on review whilst Moody's evaluates the implications of these offers on the restricted group's debt structure including potential impact of change of control provisions, as well as our revised expectations and outlook for the business and financial trends for the group and the implications of these announcements and management's strategic drives and cost cutting measures on the group's financial flexibility, covenant headroom, cash flow generation capacity prospects, credit metrics, liquidity and outlook. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The ratings affected by today's rating action are as follows: [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- BCMIF's B1 corporate family rating (CFR) and EUR350 million senior unsecured floating rate notes due 2016 at B3. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- BCM Ireland Holdings Limited (BCMIHL)'s EUR3.3 billion senior secured bank credit facilities at Ba3 and EUR350 million second-lien loan due 2016 at B3. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The last rating action was implemented on 20 March 2007, when Moody's downgraded BCMIF's CFR to B1 from Ba3 and the ratings of its affiliated entities accordingly. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]BCMIF and BCMIH are holding companies of eircom, the principal provider of fixed-line telecommunications services in Ireland and, following its acquisition of Meteor, the third largest mobile operator in Ireland. In the six months ending 30 December 2008, eircom generated revenues of EUR1,030 million[/FONT]

 

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Arriva il nuovo bond di Telecom Portugal che va sostituire quello in scadenza ad aprile 2009.

Dalle prime indicazioni, avrà durata quadriennale. Questo spiega anche il perché l'upgrade di S&P sia arrivato con un po' di anticipo sulla comunicazione della trimestrale e perché la stessa PT abbia rilasciato anticipatamente alcune info sull'andamento del Q1/2009: per pagare uno spread sul midswap inferiore rispetto a quello che sarebbe stato altrimenti D).

L'importo del bond, dalle primissime indicazioni, dovrebbe essere leggermente inferiore rispetto a quello che sostituisce (1 mld euro contro 1,05 mld euro).

Fra le altre, questa breve di Bloomberg.

Portugal Telecom Plans to Sell 4-Year Euro Bonds, Banker Says

By Caroline Hyde
April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Portugal Telecom SGPS plans to sell four-year bonds in euros, according to a banker involved in the transaction.

Barclays Capital, Banco Espirito Santo SA, Caixa Banco de Investimento SA and Citigroup Inc. will manage the sale, the banker said. The notes will be issued through Portugal Telecom International Finance BV and will be benchmark in size.

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Di maggiore completezza questa Reuters, che mi era sfuggita... la cedola del bond è del 6%, la domanda è stata pari a 7,5 volte l'offerta.

PT says refinancing needs covered after bond issue

Fri Apr 24, 2009 4:36am EDT

* PT CEO says bond boosted flexibility
* No major refinancing needs till 2012
* Stock flat, underperforming Lisbon market

By Elisabete Tavares
LISBON, April 24 (Reuters) - Portugal Telecom (PTC.LS) has its immediate refinancing needs covered after Thursday's placement of 1 billion euros in four-year bonds, with the next big debt refinancing due in 2012, Chief Executive Zeinal Bava told Reuters.

"This operation allowed us to boost our financial flexibility. PT has a solid financial situation with a low debt cost and long maturity profile," Bava told Reuters in a brief telephone interview late on Thursday.

"The next major refinancing for PT will be in 2012, worth around 1.3 billion euros," he added. "PT has no refinancing risks. We have an average (debt) maturity of 5 to 6 years and an average cost of 4.4 percent," he said, adding that the average debt cost in the sector was of 6.26 percent.

Bava said the group had continued to generate strong cash flow this year after last year's 1.37 billion euros.

After Thursday's issue, PT reduced its debt expiring in less than 12 months to 18 percent of all debt from 33 percent.

"The main objective of this operation was to lower the usage of short-term lines," Bava said.

The bond was placed at a 345 basis point spread over mid-swaps with a 6 percent coupon. Demand exceeded the offer by 7.5 times.

Bava pointed out that the spread improved from a previous issue thanks to a ratings upgrade by Standard & Poor's earlier this week. The agency raised PT's long-term rating to BBB from BBB- and its short-term rating to A-2 from A-3, with a stable outlook.

At the end of last year, PT had a net debt of 5.57 billion euros, 27 percent more than a year earlier.

Bava said the better financial situation would also support PT's investment plans in Portugal, Brazil and Africa. In Brazil, PT co-owns the country's largest mobile phone company, Vivo (VIVO4.SA). In Portugal, the company is investing in digital television.

PT expects to invest this year about the same as last year's 1.24 billion euros.

PT stock was flat at 5.55 euros in early trade on Friday, underperforming a 0.5 percent rise the broader Lisbon market.

(Writing by Andrei Khalip; editing by Simon Jessop)

 

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Si era detto che le clausole dell'accordo fra Deutsche Telekom e lo Stato greco in merito ad OTE avrebbero potuto portare i tedeschi ad acquisire ulteriori quote (e tendenzialmente il controllo) dell'ex monopolista ellenico.

E sono molto recenti indiscrezioni secondo le quali lo Stato greco sarebbe intenzionato a valersi almeno della prima delle clausole put dell'accordo e che a propria volta la stessa DT, acquistando ancora azioni di OTE sul mercato, potrebbe trovarsi nella condizione di dover lanciare un'opa sull'intero circolante.

Una breve di Telegeography dello scorso 22 aprile...

Intervengo in modifica in merito al fatto che DT, nella propria guidance, ha escluso di valutare un acquisizione di OTE nell'anno in corso.

DT to increase stake in OTE?

Broadband TV News is reporting that German telecoms company Deutsche Telekom (DT) is looking to increase its stake in Greek incumbent telco OTE. According to the report, DT will acquire an additional 5% from the Greek government, bringing its total shareholding to 30% plus one share.

According to TeleGeography’s GlobalComms database, the Greek state agreed a deal in May 2008 giving DT and the government equal stakes in OTE of 25% plus one voting share and joint management control; the following month the deal was approved by a slim parliamentary majority.

At the same time, DT was granted pre-emptive rights over the remaining shares held by the government, which has a put option for a further 5% tranche, valid for twelve months from October 2008, and a second put option for a 10% stake, valid until 2011.

Senior state sources were quoted by local press in June 2008 as saying that DT was likely to buy additional shares on the Athens Stock Exchange (separate from the put options) to lift its holding to 33%, which would trigger a mandatory public offer under stock market rules.

 

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Riporto anche qui la rating action di Fitch su DT, che peraltro conduce il rating dei tedeschi a livello equivalente a quello assegnato dalle altre agenzie.

Interessanti le news di dettagli ivi contenute sull'andamento dell'attività di DT sul mercato interno (che ha visto un qualche declino sia sui ricavi sulla linea fissa che su quelli generati dal mobile) e su alcuni mercati esteri. In Europa, le criticità sono in UK ed in Polonia, paesi nei quali l'EBITDA margin nel Q1/2009 ha visto una moderata contrazione.

DT non è veloce né ha particolare efficienza esecutiva, come tutti i pachidermi e tuttavia eventuali correzioni dei corsi dei bond, soprattutto per effetto di un eventuale acquisto di ulteriori quote di OTE, genererebbero opportunità in acquisto.

Fitch Downgrades Deutsche Telekom to 'BBB+' on Guidance Revision, Weak Operating Results
23 Apr 2009 10:15 AM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-London/Moscow-23 April 2009: Fitch Ratings has today downgraded Deutsche Telekom's (DT) Long-term Issuer Default rating (IDR) to 'BBB+' from 'A-' (A minus) and assigned a Stable Outlook. This follows DT's downward guidance revision for 2009 as operating pressures continue apace in key markets. Its senior unsecured rating was also downgraded to 'BBB+' from 'A-' (A minus). DT's Short-term IDR was affirmed at 'F2'.

"DT's domestic business remains difficult, particularly on the fixed-line side. On the other hand, international operations which have so far have been the key growth driver and have largely compensated for domestic pressures, have recently demonstrated significant weaknesses which are unlikely to be resolved in the short run," says Nikolay Lukashevich, Senior Director with Fitch's TMT team.

DT's guidance revision came only two months after confirming stronger targets which, in Fitch's view, reflects the intensified pace of business contraction and lower visibility over future cash flows.

DT revised its 2009 free cash flow (DT's definition) guidance to EUR6.4bn from EUR7bn, and adjusted EBITDA is now expected to decline 2%-4% y-o-y, versus the previous projection of no growth (EUR19,459m in 2008), suggesting a drop of EUR390m-EUR778m. In Q109 organic adjusted EBITDA fell EUR0.3bn which implies an annualised reduction of EUR1.2bn.

Achieving the previous targeted adjusted EBITDA would therefore require significant additional cost-cutting over a short period of time which may prove challenging. Also, this may entail additional restructuring costs which would further reduce unadjusted EBITDA (this is used by Fitch for calculating leverage metrics) and lead to a slight increase in net leverage to 2.5x net debt/EBITDA by end-2009 from 2.4x at end-2008. As the company is close to the bottom of its targeted adjusted net debt/adjusted EBITDA (DT's definition) range of between 2x and 2.5x, material de-leveraging from this level is unlikely.

A stabilisation of the operating and financial performance, coupled with net leverage declining to below 2.5x on a sustainable basis, could benefit the ratings. The Stable Outlook reflects that DT's profile is fairly strong for its current 'BBB+' rating level, providing some flexibility to accommodate modest pressures.

On an organic basis, DT's Q109 revenues declined 2% y-o-y and its adjusted EBITDA shrank 6%. This is significantly worse than in Q108 when adjusted EBITDA was down only 1.9% and in Q408 when it grew 1.8%. Weak results were driven by pressures across all key segments.

In spite of DT stabilising its retail broadband market share, domestic broadband/fixed-network revenues declined 6% y-o-y and adjusted EBITDA fell 3%. Fitch notes that these developments reflect continuing pricing pressures in the domestic market and a highly competitive environment.

Positive mobile dynamics that were observed in the domestic market in Q208-Q308 seem to have retreated with revenues and adjusted EBITDA stagnating and average revenue per user (ARPU) declining.

Fitch notes that the key international operations demonstrated sharp weaknesses. US Q109 organic revenues grew only 1.6% y-o-y while adjusted EBITDA declined 4.4% with adjusted EBITDA margin falling to 25.5% from 27.9%. This was driven by material ARPU pressures, higher subscriber acquisition/retention costs and the 3G roll-out.

Fitch notes that with its below-average scale in the US, continued high churn and its 3G coverage lagging behind peers, DT is unlikely to be able to address these weaknesses in the short- to medium-term and, therefore, improving profitability in this market remains challenging.

In the UK Q109 organic revenue decreased 5.1% and adjusted EBITDA margin fell to just 13.5% from 21.7%, which DT plans to address with management changes, among other things.

In Poland organic adjusted EBITDA fell 24.8% with EBITDA margin dropping to 26.4% from 35%. The management reported that in the CEE region margin pressures have so far been confined to Poland only. However, given similarities in DT's business models in CEE markets and common macroeconomic issues, Fitch believes pressures in other regional markets are likely to follow.

DT's liquidity remains strong. At end-2008 DT had EUR3bn of cash on its balance sheet, and EUR16.3bn of unused bilateral credit lines with a three-year maturity

 

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Monitor telecom bonds (gruppo di lavoro Torino41 e I98mark)

Avvertenze

Poche segnalazioni da fare per la liquidità, abbastanza buona in occasione di questo rilevamento. E' stato espunto dal monitor il bond Colt Telecom 2009, a seguito del suo richiamo anticipato rispetto alla scadenza naturale.

Sapete che, per i bond che non fanno prezzo sui mercati retail o che hanno spread anomalmente elevati rispetto a quelli presenti sui mercati professionali, Massimo S. consente di reperire i corsi dal mercato londinese dell'ICMA o da altri mercati riservati ad operatori professionali.

I prezzi sono quelli rilevati alla chiusura di venerdì sera sull'ICMA per i seguenti bond:

PT 2017 e 2025; TDC 2012; NTC 2016; NTC 2016 FRN; Telenor 2012 e 2017; OTE 11/2011; TeliaSonera 2015; Vodafone 2018; Wind 2015.

Per Telefonica 2033; Vodafone 2015 e 2016; France Telecom 2033; il prezzo è invece di fonte Bloomberg, rilevato alla chiusura di venerdì scorso.

Il bond Cell C 2012 non ha scambiato sui mercati professionali ma solo sui mercati retail.

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Il periodo monitorato

L'inclinazione di fondo resta quella alla riduzione dell'avversione al rischio: dopo una settimana, mostrano segni di maggiore crescita nei prezzi proprio i bond di quegli emittenti che il mercato aveva lasciato indietro nella rilevazione precedente perché associati a problematiche connesse alla crisi che potrebbero incidere sulle performance.

Sono così in buona ripresa i bond di TeliaSonera, Telenor, OTE, British Telecom fino alle lunghezze medie (i 5-7 anni).

Le aspettative di riduzione dei tassi e la tenuta del comparto - comunque eccellente anche nei casi di debolezza evidenziata dai risultati più recenti, se si raffronta l'andamento degli emittenti con quello di settori merceologici a maggiore ciclicità - sostengono i prezzi e le spinte rialziste.

Il problema di fondo resta quello del quanto durerà e le risposte possibili restano due: una ripresa dell'inflazione (ancora non in vista, in realtà) o un evanto traumatico (un altro default di peso, dopo la vicenda Lehman) che possa scuotere la fiducia e alimentare un ritorno al flight to quality.

Rilevo anche sull'HY qualche segnale di maggiore confidenza sui mercati retail: ad esempio, dopo oltre 1 anno e 6 mesi, è tornato a fare prezzo sui mercati retail tedeschi il bond Nordic Telephone 2016 a tasso fisso, e sebbene gli spread restino eccessivamente ampi rispetto a quelli rilevati sull'ICMA, sul quale il bond non ha mai smesso di scambiare, il fatto che un titolo a rating B+ torni a vedere scambi su questi mercati ha una sua valenza.

Fuori tabella per il bond 11% Cell C 2015 in USD (Subordinato, rating CCC) è tornato ad avere prezzi imputati solo su Francoforte: gli spread, rispetto a quelli ICMA della settimana precedente, tornano molto ampi. Questi i corsi: last price 88,00 (97,00); bid 89,00 (96,50) ask 98,00 (97,50). In parentesi i prezzi last, bid ed ask risalenti allo scorso 17 aprile.

Vi rammento infine che il file che contiene le tabelle sarà presto disponibile per il download sul sito ventimaggio gestito da Maino, per uno scarico contestuale di più tabelle, oltre ad essere scaricabile anche qui su IO.

http://digilander.libero.it/ventimaggio/Finanza/Pagina dei files.html

La tabella riepilogativa dei prezzi, ora tripartita, per effetto dell'inserimento dei Deutsche Telekom: questa la prima parte...

 

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La seconda parte

 

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La terza parte ...

 

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Tabella e grafici monitoraggio rendimenti

La tabella parte prima...