E' uscita una nota di MS con le FP sulla buy list, spero non le faccia salire di troppo...
Tra l'altro e' da leggere perche' parla delle nuove regole tier 1 per assicurazioni
MS continua a dire che le P verranno valutate come YTC.
C'è un passaggio che mi ha colpito molto.
Post-crisis, the read of our bank colleagues is that Basel is now looking to shorten materially (and may even be considering the removal altogether of) grandfathering when its proposals come into effect at the end of 2012, an out-ofconsensus view that it has had for a couple of months. As stated in Tier 1 – Basel Boosted, “Basel simply recommends that member states “consider the possibility of allowing the grandfathering” of hybrid Tier 1s. We may be reading too much into it, but this certainly doesn’t sound like a ringing endorsement of grandfathering – particularly as much of the document heavily criticises this type of capital”.
In sostanza dopo il documento di Basilea di dicembre, viene a tramontare il periodo di grandfathering trentennale. Sembra che vogliano tagliarlo di brutto. Per MS un'ipotesi verosimile potrebbe essere che gli attuali T1 cessino di essere considerati T1 alla data più vicina tra il 2017 e la call naturale.
We believe that a grandfathering period should be provided for so as not to overly disrupt the marketplace, particularly at a time when capital markets are not yet fully out of the woods. However, we also feel that it makes a lot of sense that such a period be more compressed than per the CRD and that rules adopted encourage the transition to be completed as soon as reasonably possible, before the next crisis comes along.
A period defined by, say, the shorter of five years or to the first call date at first sounds relatively stringent, but in effect it could extend the transition period to as far out as 2017, given that Solvency II is due to come into effect in 2012. In doing so, it would capture the first call dates of most hybrids in issue.
Così, a naso, non mi affretterei a salutare i T1 degli emttenti di 2° livello (tipo ABN, ING, BA, Axa, DPB, etc) che quotano tra 50 e 60. E' una cosa da seguire bene.