Barclays ha appena pubblicato un interessante report, European Banks Outlook 2011.
Vi si legge la seguente previsione a proposito degli ibridi che saranno richiamati nel corso dell'anno:
"We estimate that there are 160 European bank subordinated debt issues coming up for first call in 2011, of which 35 have already been subject to early exchange/tender offers. In our view, a bank’s past call record provides valuable guidance with regards to the likelihood of future calls. We therefore expect BNP Paribas (eight sub debt issues coming up for call in
2011), UniCredit (five), Intesa (five), HSBC (three), SocGen (two), CS (one) as well as the Nordic banks to continue to call their sub debt issues on the first call date. Likewise, we expect Deutsche Bank to continue to extend its hybrid bonds. Due to EC restrictions, we also expect continued extensions in the case of RBS and Lloyd’s in 2011.
A number of bank-specific factors may contribute to changes in previous call behaviour in the current environment. Given current market demand for stronger solvency levels (further boosted by Basel III) and uncertain investor appetite for new bank capital, some institutions with relatively low solvency ratios or perceived capital shortfalls, may be less likely to call their hybrid instruments on the first call date. Further tenders/exchanges are also possible for these names (although such options would only make sense if the instrument in question is trading well below par, which is more likely to be the case for T1 instruments). We believe Monte dei Paschi, BCP and BES would fall under this category, although the implications of these
measures, which would likely translate in higher costs of future hybrid funding, could prove to be a strong incentive for banks to continue to call their hybrid instruments.
Given the current dislocations in bank funding markets, particularly in the European periphery, banks whose cost of funding has risen significantly in recent months may be discouraged from calling hybrid instruments with low back-end spreads (mainly in the LT2 space although also some T1s), as these would still be cheap senior funding even if they do not qualify as
regulatory capital. Institutions facing particular funding pressures would fall under this category: Dexia; Bankinter; Banco Popolare; the Portuguese banks and some Spanish cajas, inour view.
Finally, the implementation of the Basel III capital rules by national regulators could lead to many capital instruments losing their regulatory capital treatment. This could lead to regulatory calls at par or make-whole amount, a price-supportive factor (see Basel III).
