(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Parigi, 16 mag - Standard and Poor's ha annunciato di aver tagliato di un gradino, da 'A-' a 'BBB+', il rating sul debito di lungo termine della compagnia assicurativa francese Groupama. Come precisa una nota, l'outlook sul rating e' negativo. Declassati, da 'BBB+/A-2' a 'BBB/A-2', anche i rating di lungo e di breve termine di Groupama Banque, controllata bancaria del Gruppo, sempre con outlook negativo. S&P spiega che la decisione e' stata presa di riflesso all'esposizione della compagnia francese sui titoli pubblici emessi dal Governo greco che 'indebolira' il profilo finanziario della compagnia'. S&P ha deciso di declassare il rating sul debito sovrano greco, da 'BB-' a 'B' il 9 maggio scorso, e ritiene che questo 'aumentera' in modo significativo i requisiti di capitale a copertura del rischio di credito, indebolendo i ratio patrimoniali di Groupama. E' improbabile che i livelli di capitale di Groupama possano ritornare, nel giro dei prossimi due anni, a livelli coerenti con forti rating di solidita' finanziaria'. L'outlook 'riflette le incertezze sul ritmo e le dimensioni del miglioramento del Gruppo in termini di performance operativa e di livelli di capitale nei prossimi due anni'. Red-Mir-
Nello specifico:
PARIS (Standard & Poor's) May 16, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
said today that it has lowered to 'BBB+' from 'A-' its long-term counterparty
credit and insurer financial strength ratings on France-based composite
insurer Groupama S.A. The outlook is negative.
At the same time, we lowered the long- and short-term counterparty credit
ratings on Groupama's wholly owned banking arm, Groupama Banque, to 'BBB/A-2'
from 'BBB+/A-2'. The outlook is negative.
The downgrades reflect our view that the rating action on the Greek sovereign
will weaken Groupama's creditworthiness because of its material exposure to
Greek government bonds. We lowered the sovereign rating by one rating
category, to the 'B' from the 'BB' rating category on May 9, 2011. According
to our risk-based insurance capital model, this will significantly increase
capital requirements for credit risks and in turn further weaken Groupama's
capital adequacy. We therefore believe it is unlikely that Groupama's capital
adequacy under our model will recover to the levels supportive of strong
financial strength ratings in the next two years.
In addition, we said in our rating action on Greece published on May 9, 2011,
that our projections suggest that principal reductions of 50% or more could
eventually be required to restore Greece's government debt burden to a
sustainable level. We acknowledge that Groupama's use of the profit-loss
sharing mechanism with policyholders could effectively mitigate life insurers'
realized investment losses. However, we do not think these potential loss
transfers to policyholders would be easily achievable, and therefore see a
potential negative impact on the insurer's earnings.
The negative outlook reflects continuing uncertainties we perceive about
Groupama's magnitude and speed of improvement in operating performance and
capital adequacy over the next two years.
In life business, we expect that adverse capital markets will continue to
dampen earnings, although Groupama's new business margins are likely to
improve to about 0.7% in 2011, thanks to a better business mix. Groupama's
operating return on embedded value is likely to stand at about 5% in 2011. In
the property/casualty business, we expect the net combined ratio will be at
about 102% in 2011 according to our computations, excluding major natural
catastrophes. In our view, it should further improve in 2012 and stand between
100% and 102% during that year.
We could lower the ratings if Groupama's earnings are below our expectations
mentioned above or if its capitalization deteriorates. We might also lower the
ratings if management does not prioritize balance sheet strength over growth
and does not finance potential acquisitions through capital to preserve the
group's capitalization.
We could revise the outlook to stable chiefly if group capitalization trends
toward good levels under our risk-based capital model.
