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New hybrid bonds

Fed and Wall St in talks over CoCos

By Nicole Bullock and Francesco Guerrera in New York
Published: November 11 2009 23:01 | Last updated: November 11 2009 23:01

The US Federal Reserve is in talks with Wall Street executives and others over whether US financial groups should raise capital through a new type of bond that converts into equity when a bank is in trouble.
The talks over the hybrid security, which was pioneered by Lloyds Banking Group of the UK last week, are in their early stages but underline regulators’ desire to find novel ways to bolster banks’ balance sheets in times of crisis. The new securities – known as contingent convertibles, or CoCos – operate as bonds in normal times, paying coupons to investors.
However, they would automatically convert into equity when the bank’s finances deteriorate below a predetermined level – such as a capital ratio benchmark or other measures linked to the institution’s assets and market value.
Supporters of CoCos say they enable a bank to raise equity capital at times of stress while at the same time ensuring it will be the investors who risk losing money if the financial group is bailed out or wound down by the government.
“Talks have been frequent in recent weeks but we are still early in the process,” a Wall Street executive, who is participating in talks with the New York Fed, said.
“However, the Fed and other regulators seem determined to see whether CoCos will work.”
The New York Fed declined to comment. However, William Dudley, its president, said in a recent speech that a CoCo-like instrument “seems to hold real promise”. “If these contingent capital buffers were large . . . then the worst aspects of the banking crisis might have been averted,” he said.
Politicians have also shown a willingness to back CoCos. A bill introduced this week by the Senate banking committee calls for banks to issue “long-term hybrid debt securities that will provide them with capital during a systemic crisis so failing institutions can provide their own life support”.
The main question over the viability of CoCos is whether there would be sufficient investor demand. The best chance for creating a large, liquid market would be to tap corporate bond investors.
Standard & Poor’s, the credit rating agency, warned on Tuesday that contingent convertibles were “not a panacea” for banks’ efforts to bolster their capital.
“We see contingent capital securities as introducing another potential tool to manage the capital base in times of stress. However, they are not being designed by banks to address the need to repair existing weak balance sheets.”
Insiders involved in the talks and observers argue that a US iteration would not necessarily follow the Lloyds’ model and that more than one structure could be used.
“It is still an amorphous concept,” said Anna Pinedo of law firm Morrison Foerster. “The Lloyds product is only one possible instrument, but we have been working with clients on other structures that would be considered contingent capital.”
Bankers and analysts argue that structures such as CoCos could help banks worldwide to refinance some $7,000bn in debt that is due to expire in the next three years.
 
Banks face hit from bond downgrades

By Jennifer Hughes
Published: November 17 2009 18:25 | Last updated: November 17 2009 18:41

Many banks are facing possible multi-notch downgrades to their hybrid bonds following a change in the methodology used by Moody’s Investors Services.
The ratings agency on Tuesday confirmed a new system would take account of a wider range of factors and said it would announce within two days which hybrids would be put on review for downgrade.
In June, when the changes were first proposed, Moody’s said it expected the changes would leave only a quarter of all hybrids with their ratings intact. Two-fifths would see a downgrade of between one and two notches, and a further quarter would be weakened by three or four notches.
Hybrids have characteristics of equity and debt and were designed to act as a cushion between senior bondholders and shareholders. Their structures had until now allowed the rating agencies to consider them mostly debt while allowing bank regulators to consider them as part of a bank’s equity-based capital cushion and able to absorb losses.
The ratings shift comes as bankers, investors and regulators are deliberating over a new generation of hybrids that might better meet these requirements. Earlier this month, Lloyds Banking Group offered to exchange some of its existing hybrids for a new contingent convertible product, known as a CoCo bond.
Moody’s system had previously allowed its analysts to assume that any official support given to a bank would also cover subordinated debt. But several subordinated instruments have been allowed to suffer losses during the crisis after regulators and other policymakers made it clear they expected the bondholders to share the pain felt by equity holders in bailed-out banks.
The new system will also take into account country-specific factors such as legislative changes.
As a result, UK bank debt is likely to suffer bigger downgrades because of new laws that, since February, have allowed the government to alter bond terms. In May, it did this on subordinated notes issued by Bradford & Bingley, the nationalised mortgage lender, by skipping coupon payments.
“This [legislation] could mean UK banks see a relatively harsher treatment of Lower tier two debt than banks in other jurisdictions,” said Gary Jenkins at Evolution Securities.
The new methodology will also result in wider notching between different instruments depending on their exact features, Moody’s said on Tuesday.
Wider ”notching” will also be applied among hybrids, with various issues rated differently depending on certain features,
The news had little effect on current market prices as investors waited to see exactly what would happen to the instruments they hold. Observers said bonds had been generally trading independently of ratings for some time as the effects of the crisis and government actions were felt.
“These existing instruments already traded to a point that reflects the economic liability and not the ratings,” said Sandeep Agarwal, head of financial institutions in the debt capital markets team at Credit Suisse.
Per quanto sicuramente non positivo va detto che in realta Moody's non fa altro che allinearsi con le altre rating agencies. A titolo di esempio l'UBS 8.836% al momento e' A1(A+) per Moody's BBB- per S&P e BB per Fitch. Probabilmente questo e' un buon esempio che potrebbe vedere alcuni force sellers, qual'ora Moody's dowgradasse a che so BB+, tra investitori istituzionali che siano costretti ad avere solo investment grade nel portafoglio (dove l'investment grade sia richiesto almeno per due agenzie di rating). Personalmente trovo un po' ridicolo il comportamento delle agenzie di ratings in tale contesto in quanto come spesso fanno chiudono i recinti o quando i cavalli sono gia' scappati o quando e' chiaro che se pur il recinto e' aperto non hanno nessuna intenzione di scappare (e questo mi sembra il caso degli Ibridi bancari dove si e' visto che a parte qualche non call su LT2 e alcuni casi di banche cotte e parzialmente/totalmente statalizzate il commitment delle banche e' stato a favore degli strumenti ibridi, e proprio per cio' le autorita' di vigilanza ora spingono sul core tier1 piu' che su quello complessivo) P.S. perdonatemi italiano non e' il mio forte.
 

nik.sala

Money Never Sleeps
Se le richiamano il ragionamento sulla convenienza è chiuso :D

Altimenti, dal "calcolo della serva" qui perpetuals_r

nome isin bid ask ced pre call ced post Rcall100 Rcall Rpc Rpc100
Banca Pop. Di Lodi (BP) XS0223454512 82,5 84 6,742% 30/06/2015 5,97% 10,65% 8,01% 7,10% 7,78%
Banca Pop. Verona e Novara (BP) XS0304963290 64 66 6,156% 21/06/2017 3% 13,59% 9,31% 4,54% 6,25%
Banca Pop. Verona e Novara (BP) XS0304963373 67 69 6,756% 21/06/2017 2,6% 13,51% 9,77% 3,77% 5,38%

Rcall100 = YTC (richiamo a 100)
Rpc100 = YTP (ipotesi a 100 dopo 10 anni post call)



INFATTI...
(Backquote)
difatti io ho la 290 a 66, sono un golosone :p
 

ginestra

Forumer attivo
Grazie, scaricato da Bloomberg

ciao uzzo
benvenuto

mi piacerebbe conoscere il tuo pare su
1-mps banca
2- sulle sue 2 p.
mps cap. Trust xs0121342827 8% call 3\11 poi eur +3.65 a 90\93
antonveneta xs01131739246 eur+3.1 call 2011 poi eur+4.65 a 82\85
qui nel forun qualcuno ha preferito acquistare la prima ultimamente
io ho la seconda. la trimestrale di mps non mi ha convinto....
ciao
 
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