Report di Davy sulle banche irlandesi.
Estratto su AIB
ALBK now has an outstanding capital requirement of €13.3bn, of which
€1.4bn may be in the form of contingent capital. The timeframe ALBK
has to raise this capital is not certain, but given that the government has
effectively a 93% stake in the bank at present, further state capital
support appears most likely. There is €2.7bn of subordinated debt
outstanding and we expect further liability management in this space. It
is possible to generate significant capital gains without equity conversion
on a non-coercive basis given the current low market rates on these
instruments. However, debt-to-equity would help justify a continued
market listing for the bank and for the junior sub, where a dividendstopper
is in place, a debt-to-equity conversion may be unavoidable.
Estratto su BOI
In our opinion, BKIR retains a reasonable prospect of recreating an
equity investment case in the near term. On a pro-forma basis, the bank
will be recapitalised to a core tier 1 ratio of 14.5%. It has said that its
own assumptions for loan losses are far lower than Blackrock's estimates,
which are aggressive and if these loan losses do not materialise then there
will be significant excess capital. BKIR's own stress scenario assumes that
losses are €2.2bn lower that Blackrock's estimates (see Table 6) and in a
base scenario, the bank's loan losses are €1.4bn lower.
If we receive further detail regarding medium-term funding support
from Europe, we believe that private capital and subordinated bondholders
will engage with the equity story. If there is significant interest
from the subordinated bond-holders (€2.6bn) as well as private sector
capital, there is a reasonable chance that government ownership can be
kept below 50%