Per gli amici investiti in bond Cell C, estraggo da un recente report di Fitch sui mercati telecom africani la descrizione del mercato sudafricano nella sua evoluzione.
La circostanza che mi è parsa interessante è quella per cui l'agenzia assume per certo che Telkom, l'ex monopolista della linea fissa, vada a proporsi come quarto operatore mobile del paese, escludendo che vi siano chance che essa acquisti Cell C (arrivata a detenere una quota pari al 10% del mercato sudafricano).
La circostanza porterà presumibilmente ad una forte crescita delle pressioni tariffarie, in quanto appare verosimile che Telkom cercherà di utilizzare la sua posizione di ex monopolista delle linea fissa e la possibilità di offrire in combinazione fisso e mobile per guadagnare rapidamente quote di mercato della telefonia mobile (parte infatti con una rete 3G che sta sviluppando, ma anche con un servizio commerciale in WiMax)
Il report di Fitch è datato 9 marzo 2009
South Africa
South Africa is the most developed telecoms market in Africa in terms of technologydeployed and services provided. South African mobile companies are now aggressively expanding into other African states and the Middle East with MTN leading the way, with over 20 operations in the region.
Incumbent Telkom is currently in the process of divesting its stake in mobile operator Vodacom to Vodafone, a transaction that will enable the fixed‐line incumbent to start its own mobile operations and provide capital to further invest in its African operations.
Fixed‐line penetration in South Africa remains low at around 10%. Despite the end of the monopoly in 2006, following the entrance of second fixed‐line operator Neotel, the incumbent Telkom continues to dominate the market.
The South African government is planning to licence a third fixed network operator in 2009 along with a fourth mobile licence that is expected to be awarded to Telkom.
Africa’ biggest mobile operator, MTN, and South Africa’ second‐largest fixed‐line operator, Neotel, have recently unveiled plans to build a 5,000km fibre‐optic cable for ZAR1.7bn (USD167m) to ZAR2bn to service the increasing bandwidth demand.
South Africa’ mobile market is one of the most developed and competitive markets in the continent. It comprises three MNOs (Vodacom, MTN and Cell C) and one MVNO player (Virgin). As of end‐3Q08, mobile penetration had reached around 100%, putting pressure on the domestic MNOs which are competing aggressively to differentiate themselves, offering innovative services.
Vodafone, through its subsidiary Vodacom, a Vodafone group joint venture with state incumbent Telkom, is the country’ market leader with 53% of mobile subscribers, while MTN trails with 36 per cent, followed by Cell C at 10%.
Given the limited growth potential of the fixed‐line market, the incumbent Telkom has decided to enter the mobile market launching its own 3G network and the first commercial WiMAX service in South Africa.
The entrance of Telkom as a fourth mobile operator is likely to upset the
market and intensify pricing competition. In addition, interconnection tariffs are expected to be reduced once Telkom completes the sale of its stake in Vodacom.
After years of stagnation primarily due to Telkom’ monopoly status and pricing control, South Africa’ internet and broadband market is starting to take off. The move towards IP‐based platforms is revolutionising both the cost and scale of services.
Wireless broadband, including 3G/HSDPA mobile data services, now
compete with available ADSL offerings. The growth of data services mainly through ADSL has been significant, despite its relatively high costs. Wider access to broadband, ADSL and 3G, have boosted internet connectivity, with the number of South African internet browsers increasing significantly to around 4.6 million.
Bandwidth capacity remains relatively limited and in response the government created InfrCo, a national infrastructure entity to provide cheap broadband capacity.
Telecoms tariffs in South Africa have been high compared with
international standards; however, recent liberalisation measures, including the legal use of VoIP along with the entrance of alternative service providers, as well as the forthcoming submarine fibre‐optic cables have paved the way for lower pricing.
