Sempre su telecom italia, un'interessante analisi di Ovum, in inglese stavolta.
E' un punto di vista critico circa il work in progress del piano strategico 2009-2011 varato da Bernabé.
Le sfide sono
1) nella ristrutturazione interna, che potrebbe portare ad un incremento di costi nel breve termine prima di generare benefici, oltre a portare con sé le difficoltà esecutive che ogni processo di ristrutturazione comporta,
2) nel contesto brasiliano, che vede TIM Brasil crescere meno di Vivo e di Claro, rispettivamente prima e seconda nella telefonia mobile del paese,
3) nel mercato interno, per il quale le previsioni di calo del PIL rischiano di incidere sui risultati che si volevano conseguire, anche in quanto la sfida del triple play dovrebbe essere sostenuta da contenuti televisivi all'altezza della concorrenza, il che al momento (almeno secondo Ovum) non è un risultato del tutto conseguito.
Sally Banks
Telecom Italia facing a challenging 2009
In its 2009 to 2011 strategic plan announced last year, Telecom Italia announced targets of 2% annual revenue growth and an EBITDA margin in excess of 39% for 2011. Its recently released 2008 results highlight that it has its work cut out trying to achieve these targets, with revenues declining 2.3% and EBITDA margin declining 0.7 percentage points to 38.8%. Here we examine the changes taking place at Telecom Italia and highlight what more can be done.
Transformation providing a distraction rather than rejuvenation
In its domestic market, Telecom Italia has undergone a major reorganisation. Not only has it implemented an Open Access division to meet the regulator's conditions of functional separation, but it has also realigned its business segments to focus on customers rather than products lines, with three new business units, namely Consumer Market, Business Market and Top Clients Market & Networked IT Services.
Once all the processes behind this reorganisation, including marketing, customer service, networks and operations, IT and billing, are fully integrated in 2011, this will enable Telecom Italia to deliver an enhanced customer experience through a single point of contact.
It will also help it to reduce costs through simplification of the network and fewer resources needed. However, like any transformation, the initial costs of implementation are high and provide an additional distraction to the group at a time when cost control is essential if it is to achieve growth and gain some control of its notoriously high debt burden.
Brazil can be an excellent growth engine if managed well
With a presence in one of the fastest growing global markets, TIM Brasil provides Telecom Italia with an excellent opportunity for significant revenue growth. However, to date this operation remains the third largest mobile player in Brazil, behind Portugal Telecom's Vivo and America Movil's Claro, recording just 4.9% revenue growth for the full-year 2008, compared to Vivo's 23.4% growth.
With Telecom Italia choosing to position itself as a mobile broadband challenger in this market, yet highlighting the fact that it has reduced commercial capex during 2008, we question if this is something that Telecom Italia will be able to deliver upon. Becoming a serious mobile broadband challenger requires greater capex spend to upgrade the network and provide broadband modems in order to deliver an acceptable customer experience and generate take-up of this service.
One way Telecom Italia can reduce that outlay is to negotiate a network-sharing agreement with a competitor, similar to deals seen in the UK; this would provide a solution to reduce costs, increase coverage and grow revenues faster than is possible on its own. If it is to grow subscribers and revenues, TIM Brasil needs to focus on strengthening its brand, achieving greater operational efficiency and differentiating itself from the competition on quality rather than price.
Domestic market tough as Italy feels the recession more than most
With Italy's GDP declining by around 0.6% in 2008, and forecast to fall by a further 2.5% in 2009, the outlook for Telecom Italia in its domestic market is going to get even tougher.
Telecom Italia witnessed strong growth in broadband revenues in 2008, driven by IPTV take-up, but it must ensure it offers compelling triple-play packages, which offer both value for money and quality TV content, if it is to reach critical mass for these services and compete with successful alternative providers such as Fastweb.
Telecom Italia has also performed well in the enterprise segment, with ICT revenues up 18% for the full-year 2008, through increase in take-up from corporate clients and new offers to SMEs. However, as the recession tightens its grip in 2009 and affects corporate spend on ICT, growth from this segment is likely to slow, adding to the many challenges that Telecom Italia already faces in its home market.
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