Abbiamo spesso parlato di esposizione ai mercati emergenti vissuta in maniera diversa dai mercati obbligazionari a seconda che si tratti di america latina (vissuta come mercato che ha ancora prospettive di crescita, anche in caso di crisi prolungata) ed europa orientale (per la quale invece ci si attendono cali dei consumi telefonici, vissuti lì ancora come parzialmente voluttuari e dunque comprimibili).
Propongo questa Reuters recente che adotta questa chiave di lettura guardando ai risultati Q1/2009 recentemente diffusi da Telefonica e da Telekom Austria.
Si nota in effetti che mentre entrambe le società hanno problemi sui mercati domestici (che vedono una forte pressione competitiva sugli ex incumbent nazionali da parte di concorrenti sulla telefonia mobile, ed in Spagna anche un calo dei consumi legato all'impennata della disoccupazione), la situazione di Telefonica si giova della forte crescita dei mercati sudamericani, ed in particolare del Brasile, mentre quella di telekom Austria vede un ulteriore indebolimento legato al calo dei consumi telefonici in Bielorussia, Bulgaria ed in alcuni altri paesi balcanici.
WRAPUP 2-LatAm drives Telefonica, E.Europe dents T.Austria
Wed May 13, 2009 8:11am EDT
* Telefonica Q1 profit ahead of forecast
* Spanish firm reiterates '09 guidance
* Latin America compensates for weak Spain
* Telekom Austria Q1 profit misses forecast
* Austrian firm cuts '09 revenue, keeps EBITDA guidance
(releads, adds Latam details)
By Elisabeth O'Leary and Boris Groendahl
MADRID/VIENNA, May 13 (Reuters) - Expansion abroad provided very different results for two of Europe's leading telecoms firms on Wednesday, with Telefonica (
TEF.MC) reaping benefits as a long-time investor in still-booming Latin America.
The emerging region helped drive forecast-beating first-quarter profit at Europe's largest telecoms company, offsetting weakness in its home market of Spain. In contrast, pressure on call rates in recession-hit eastern Europe dented peer Telekom Austria's (TELA.VI) results.
"(This) may turn out to be one of the toughest quarters of the credit crunch (and) Telefonica has shown impressive stability ... Latin America continues to drive growth forward and has truly become the company's crown jewel," said Michael Kovacocy, European telecoms analyst at Daiwa.
Telefonica beat market expectations with a 9.8 percent rise in net profit, as growth in Latin America -- and Brazil in particular -- helped offset weakness in Spain and allowed the company to stick to full-year forecasts
Analysts said results at Telefonica had reassured given weakness at European peers, including Telekom Austria, Deutsche Telekom (
DTEGn.DE) and Telecom Italia (
TLIT.MI), which have taken bigger hits from the economic slowdown.
But markets are expecting more gloomy news from the sector on Thursday when Britain's BT Group (
BT.L) is likely to reveal the need for increased contributions to its pension fund and a cut to its dividend as it reports fourth-quarter earnings.
HOME MARKETS SLUMP
Both Telefonica and Telekom Austria saw home markets facing fierce competition, as cost-conscious customers looked for cheaper mobile rates.
Telekom Austria said its mobile business showed average revenue per user (ARPU) declined in all major markets as higher usage could not offset the impact of lower prices. Prices fell 11 percent in Austria, 7 percent in Bulgaria and 6 percent in Belarus.
The Austrian company cut its revenue outlook as price cuts and the economic downturn caused a 6 percent decline in first-quarter core earnings. Still, it reassured investors that its profit guidance for the year was intact.
At 1128 GMT, shares in Telefonica rose 0.8 percent while Telekom Austria fell 1.9 percent.
TELEFONICA REASSURES
At Telefonica, net profit rose to 1.69 billion euros ($2.30 billion), versus the average forecast for a rise of 6.5 percent to 1.64 billion in a Reuters poll of 12 analysts.
Chris Alliott, European telecoms analyst at RBS, said the results were "reassuring. Despite the operating environment in Spain being tough, Latin America is making up for it".
Business in Spain, which accounts for less than a third of Telefonica's revenues, is suffering the effects of a severe recession, with mobile pricing in particular under pressure.
Analysts noted a 9.5 percent year-on-year fall in ARPU at its Spanish mobile business -- a key measure of profitability.
Latin America however, which also accounts for slightly more than a third of revenue, saw a 4.8 percent rise in revenues and a 16 percent rise in custom, thanks to broad-based growth, particularly in internet and mobile telephony.
Telefonica has an around 30 percent market share in the region, where it has nearly 125 million mobile accesses, up 20 percent in the first quarter versus Carlos Slim's America Movil (
AMXL.MX) which has about 187 million.
Telefonica added 1.3 million mobile customers in the first quarter alone, with Brazil performing particularly well.
In an interview with Reuters last week, Telefonica was upbeat on the outlook for Latin America, saying many countries in the region may be the first to emerge from the global crisis.
EASTERN EUROPE WEIGHS
State-controlled Telekom Austria has tapped into the emerging markets in the Balkans and in Belarus to make up for its declining domestic business, but is now suffering as the region entered economic decline and clients cut back on mobile phone calls.
It said 2009 revenue would be "slightly weaker" than previously forecast, but offered costs cuts to offset the shortfall. It still expected to meet its profit guidance and make good on its dividend pledge.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) were 455 million euros ($620 million) in the March quarter, driven down by a drop in mobile earnings in Austria and Bulgaria and hit by regulatory price cuts and more competition.
That was versus 478 million euros as forecast in a Reuters poll of 12 analysts. ($1=.7336 euros) (Editing by John Stonestreet)
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