Telecom Italia secondo Fitch: se lasciassero lavorare Bernabè, le cose potrebbero addirittura migliorare in capo a qualche anno, riuscendosi a portare il leverage su livelli compatibili con un innalzamento del rating... in passato, la sfida è sempre stata mancata.
Fitch Affirms Telecom Italia at 'BBB'; Outlook Stable
12 Jun 2009 10:16 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-12 June 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed Telecom Italia S.p.A.'s (TI) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured ratings at 'BBB'. The Outlook on TI's Long-term IDR is Stable. The senior unsecured ratings of Telecom Italia Capital and Telecom Italia Finance SA are also affirmed at 'BBB'.
The affirmation of TI's ratings reflect the company's high domestic margin performance and the relatively strong domestic market position which should underpin future cash flow performance, along with the growth potential of its mobile operations in Brazil.
The ratings are, however, constrained by a leverage metric, here measured as unadjusted net debt/EBITDA, that has proven stubbornly difficult in recent years for TI to bring down from a level of around 3.0x.
The company's current industrial plan does not envisage the metric reducing to the 2.5x threshold - the level that Fitch currently considers consistent with a rating at the higher end of the 'BBB' range - until 2011.
Nevertheless, Fitch acknowledges management's commitment to improving the financial profile of the business. Management has set out clear objectives intended both to improve cash flow generation and to reduce leverage materially.
These include a reduction in net indebtedness by EUR5bn and a leverage goal of 2.3x by 2011, with a sizeable cut in the 2009 dividend as a first step towards this goal. While current economic conditions present challenges in terms of stabilising the top line, early progress on cost containment has enabled management to confirm previously announced EBITDA targets, with its Q109 results.
Operationally, however, the company is experiencing pressure in its domestic mobile business, continued fixed access attrition domestically and lower-than-expected growth in Brazil, each of which issue needs addressing in the near- to medium-term. The economic environment is starting to have a more pronounced effect on telecom carrier revenues than previously envisaged by Fitch.
TI is proving no exception to this trend, with sales in its domestic mobile operations subject to a 7.1% decline in Q109. The maturity of the mobile market in Italy leaves little scope for net subscriber growth, while fixed-line competition continues to put pressure on the company's fixed access line losses in Italy.
The Stable Outlook reflects the fact that TI sits comfortably within the 'BBB' rating level, while progress in its de-leveraging strategy should create some upward rating pressure when the 2.5x metric becomes a tangible prospect. Fitch acknowledges that TI has the scale and, by some measures, the financial profile of an incumbent with a stronger 'BBB' rating, but is constrained by the legacy of the leverage policy of the previous management.
At Q1 '09, around 70% of the company's EUR42.9bn gross indebtedness is sourced from the bond markets with an average maturity of eight years. Liquidity includes EUR5.6bn of cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities, with a further EUR6.5bn in the form of unused availability under a EUR8.0bn committed bank facility (maturing 2014).