4 novembre 2008
Per Telenor invece l'outlook passa in negativo in conseguenza del significativo investimento di start up in una telecom indiana. In effetti a Telenor, presente in tutta l'area dalla Thailandia al Bangladesh, dal Pakistan all'asia centrale ex sovietica, oltre che in Russia, Ucraina e gran parte dell'Europa dell'est, l'India ancora mancava...
Resta nell'approccio delle agenzie la tendenza a valutare modestamente quest'attività internazionale, per le ragioni indicate anche in questo commento di S&P, e ad accordare il rating soprattutto sulla scorta della forte posizione conseguita sul mercato domestico e scandinavo.
Le dimensioni attese dell'investimento indiano in particolare generano preoccupazione (come anche le prospettive non eccitanti di crescita di quel mercato telefonico, con attese di forte espansione del fatturato complessivo ma con previsioni di marginalità operativa piuttosto modesta), sebbene ad irrobustire le spalle di Telenor vi sia la consistente e salda presenza dello Stato norvegese nell'azionariato e le risorse investite provengano in ultima analisi dai proventi della produzione petrolifera di quel paese.
Il profilo di rischio finanziario quale evidenziato al 30 settembre scorso resta comunque tale da non destare preoccupazioni, con un utilizzo non esorbitante della leva finanziaria (net debt/EBITDA all'1,7% o al 2,2% considerando la totalità delle posizioni assunte sui mercati emergenti).
Fondamentale tuttavia alla conservazione del rating il successo dell'aumento di capitale annunciato da Telenor a finanziamento degli ulteriori costi che si prevede generati dall'espansione in India.
Telenor ASA 'BBB+/A-2' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Neg On Material Indian Start-up Cash Outflows
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) Oct. 30, 2008--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it revised the outlook to negative from stable on leading Norwegian and global mobile telecommunications provider Telenor ASA. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'BBB+' long-term and 'A-2' short-term corporate credit ratings on the company.
"The outlook revision follows the announcement that Telenor is to enter the Indian mobile market and the associated significant execution risks it faces given the materiality of the investment," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Simon Redmond.
Telenor will inject $1.07 billion (Norwegian krone {NOK} 7 billion) for a 60% stake with management control in Unitech Wireless, a joint venture with
India-based Unitech Ltd.
To fund part of the initial and ongoing investments, Telenor plans to raise NOK12 billion of equity. Although aggressive, the resulting increase in both financial and business risks is seen as manageable and for now compatible at the 'BBB+' rating level.
The ratings on Telenor reflect the company's strong domestic fixed-line
and mobile businesses and solid cash generation. These strengths are offset by the persistent competitive and regulatory pressures in Telenor's Nordic
markets and the volatility and partial ownership of international mobile
businesses.
International mobile activities, although growing and diversified, have weak business profiles, are often partly owned, and expose Telenor to foreign exchange and country-related risks. At Sept. 30, 2008, Telenor had
gross unadjusted consolidated debt of NOK48.1 billion ($7.4 billion).
The Unitech Wireless investment is consistent with Telenor's strategy to
derive growth from emerging market assets, particularly in Asia.
The total start-up funding for the national operation, which will be meaningfully more than the indicated capital investment alone of $2 billion in the first three years, will be a material financial stress on Telenor's credit profile.
The expected equity issuance is an important but only partial mitigant, as it will rapidly be absorbed by heavily negative free cash flows. With positive EBITDA not anticipated from the Indian operation in the first three years, Telenor's free operating cash flow in 2009 and 2010 is unlikely to cover dividend payments, resulting in a further increase in net debt.
Unitech Ltd. is expected to make pro rata contributions to the joint venture in the coming years.
The weakening of Telenor's business risk profile is more incremental in
the near to medium term.
Telenor has significant experience of emerging market mobile operations, as in Pakistan, but even with a local partner, it will face considerable logistical and other country-related challenges.
The Indian mobile market is expected to continue expanding given nominal penetration of about 26%, but economic conditions are likely to be less supportive and average revenues per user are low at mid-single digits in U.S. dollar terms.
Telenor's performance in the third quarter was satisfactory. Financial
leverage for the 12 months to Sept. 30, 2008, was comfortably within rating
expectations, with adjusted net debt representing about 1.7x EBITDA. (This
rises to 2.0x excluding the contributions from riskier operations in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Montenegro, and Serbia; and 2.2x taking further, proportionate account of EBITDA and debt from Thailand, Malaysia, and EDB Business Partners.)
Over the near term, the negative outlook reflects the high probability of
a downgrade to 'BBB' if our expectation for near-term equity issuance is not
met. Over the longer term, Telenor would be at risk of a downgrade if we
believe that a dramatic reduction in negative group free cash flow in 2010
compared with 2009, a medium-term restoration of debt-to-EBITDA measures, and broadly stable overall group operating performance outside India are not realistic developments.
Further acquisitions, additional cash outflows, or adverse changes in the group's controlled assets would also be likely to result in a downgrade.
Telenor's successful execution of the announced NOK12 billion equity
issuance is critical to maintain the ratings in order to mitigate the effect
of massive cash absorption by the Indian joint venture during the first three
years. With increased debt and lower EBITDA, leverage will increase, but fully
adjusted net debt to EBITDA is not expected to be meaningfully more than 3x
(including 100% of Indian operations).
A revision of the outlook to stable is unlikely in the near term given
the materiality of the expected negative cash flows and operating risks
inherent in the Indian start-up venture. In the medium term, the outlook could be revised to stable if consolidated free operating cash flows before
dividends are likely to be neutral and if leverage declines--notably if
consolidated fully adjusted net debt trends toward 2.5x EBITDA (excluding
EBITDA from riskier countries but including India).
We also expect the operating steps Telenor is taking to compensate for lost revenues and to reduce costs, particularly in the Nordic markets.
The ratings do not incorporate assumptions that any payments with respect to legal disputes, relating to Russia or elsewhere, might result in cash payments that are material for the group.
