discipline
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la vedo come te, spero sia la scelta giusta. è sorprendente come abbiano tutto sommato retto finora, se confrontate coi titoli di stato...
Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 1
- Creatore Discussione negusneg
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- additional tier 1 bail in basilea 3 coco bonds crd iv genussscheine grandfathering hybrid bond loss absorption lower tier 2 make whole amount matusalem bond obbligazioni irredimibili obbligazioni perpetue obbligazioni subordinate perpetual bond preference shares restricted tier 1 tier 1 upper tier 2
- Stato
la vedo come te, spero sia la scelta giusta. è sorprendente come abbiano tutto sommato retto finora, se confrontate coi titoli di stato...
Gianni.Mello
Forumer attivo
Preso su un sito USA:
In The Grab For Yield, Fixed Income Investors Overlooking Call Risk
As money has come gushing into the fixed income market over the past year (a record $400 bln into bond funds in 2009 alone), one of the areas we feel investors have overlooked in their search for yield is "Call Risk." By investing in individual fixed income instruments, bond funds and yield-focused ETFs, investors wary of the stock market are looking for yield. The issue is that they probably aren't factoring in the risks associated with buying a fixed income instrument at a premium. In this piece, we will illustrate Call Risk, as well as highlight some instruments that we think should continue to perform well in the face of increasing interest rates and looming Call Risk.
While it may make sense to pay a premium for a high value piece of paper (e.g., a Financial Bond or Preferred issued at a high yield in 2008 and 2009 due to distressed market conditions), one must be cognizant of the moving parts that could impact their returns.
For example, the JP Morgan Chase Preferred 8.625% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock (JPM/PI 27.75) is an issue we've highlighted in the Income Focus comment (found on In Play under the ticker YIELD) based on its attractive coupon (8.625%). In addition to the coupon appeal, the Preferred pays Qualified Dividends, which means the distributions are taxed at the dividend tax rate of 15% rather than the marginal tax rate at which interest income is taxed. For high income individuals, this effectively provides an additional 200 basis points of after-tax yield (15% tax rate vs 35%).
The JP Morgan instrument is a name that I personally was buying in November in the $26.20 area. At this price, the effective yield of 8.2% -- about the highest yielding JP Morgan paper available. Factor in the "preferred" status of the dividend distributions (taxed at 15% instead of up to 35%) and you're talking an effective yield of over 9% depending on your tax bracket.
Understanding that it could be a very long time before we saw another piece of JP Morgan paper with this type of yield, I purchased twice my normal size -- half as an investment position for the purpose of income and half as a trading position. The trading position was sold in the $27.25 area as I perceived "fair value" to be about in this area.
However, as money continued to flow into the yield side of the market (Bonds, Preferreds, Fixed Income ETFs), the JP Morgan Preferred found legs up to the $29.00 area, which reduced the yield to 7.4% ($2.15 annual distribution divided by the stock price)
I sold my core investment position into this advance as I felt that the Call Risk would eventually put a cap on the upside and start to draw the Preferred Stock back towards its $25.00 par value. Although this security doesn't have an actual maturity date, JP Morgan has the option to "Call" it as of 9/1/2013. The company was forced to offer such a yield initially because the paper was issued during a period of distress in the financial markets (IPO date of this security was Aug 2008). JP Morgan is now issuing Preferreds 200 basis points lower in the 6.8% range. At this point, I'd say it's safe to assume that the company will exercise the Call feature instead of continuing to pay an unnecessarily high distribution.
While the Call date is more than three years out, one must start to account for the 14% capital loss that would be suffered if buying this security at $29.00 and having it called at way at the $25.00 par value that JP Morgan would buy it back. This amounts to about a year-and-half worth of dividend payments, or approximately half of what one would stand to earn by holding this security through its Call Date. At current prices, this JP Morgan Preferred has already come in 4% off recent highs, which is more than half the 7.4% in dividend income that an investor in this security at $29.00 would stand to earn in interest for the year.
Are There Opportunities Remaining In the Preferred Market?
I think the door is closing quickly on opportunities in the Preferreds space. There is a thirst for yield in this market, which has carried most names to the point that Call risk will handicap performance going forward.
There have been a few attractive deals come through the pipeline in recent months such as the Citigroup Capital XII, 8.50% Fixed/Floating Trust Preferred (C/PJ 25.75, current yield 8.25%) issued mid-March with an 8.5% coupon and 5.87% LIBOR spread once it starts floating in 2015 and the JPMorgan Chase Capital 7.2% Fixed-to-Floating Capital Securities (JPM/PB 26.30, current yield 6.84%). Both securities were issued with a $25.00 par value.
Some of this new paper has been attractive based on 1) Yields, 2) Floating Rate feature that diminishes some of the interest rate risk, 3) extended Call protection.
I own both of the securities listed above and would consider adding more on pullbacks of 0.40-0.50. These securities were issued over the past several months and have approx. 5 years of "Call Protection." They also possess a floating rate feature that will cause the interest payments to adjust with LIBOR after the first five years, making the securities attractive in a rising interest rate environment (fixed rate securities often decline in a rising rate environment as new paper comes to market with higher yields)
On the value front, I've been buying Deutsche Bank Contingent Capital Trust V, 8.05% Trust Preferred Securities (DKT 25.52 -0.06, current yield 7.88%). The security makes quarterly payments of $2.01 a share, for a yield at par of 8.05%. The initial Call date is not until June 2018, which means that the only thing that should restrict upside in the security for the next several years is its absolute yield relative to similar securities in the marketplace. Given that tier-1 financial institutions have been able to issue new Preferreds in the 6.5%-7.0% range, the Deutsche Bank paper offers value here given its current yield of 7.88%. The distributions it makes also qualify for the 15% dividend tax rate.
A more speculative name worth noting is the Zions Bancorp (ZB/PC 25.09, current yield 9.5%). Zions is a bank that remains in turnaround mode, but analysts and investors have warmed to the story in recent months and the company is projected to return to profitability in 2011. I like the value of the Preferred (9.5% yield and qualifies for the 15% dividend tax treatment) and was buying it last week in the $24.50 area. I was hoping for a move into the $24/23.75 zone to establish a full position as I felt the significant rally the security has seen off its lows could lead to some profit-taking (the entire market for Bank Preferred Stocks collapsed in early-2009 when there was legitimate concern of system wide bank failures). The Call date on this security is Sept 1, 2013. However, should the Zion's Bancorp story continue to improve, I could see the Preferred trading to a yield in the 8.7% range, which would translate to a price of approx. $27.20.
For live analysis of the Preferred and Corporate Bond markets, create alerts using the YIELD ticker or simply search the In Play page for our latest comments using this ticker.
In The Grab For Yield, Fixed Income Investors Overlooking Call Risk
As money has come gushing into the fixed income market over the past year (a record $400 bln into bond funds in 2009 alone), one of the areas we feel investors have overlooked in their search for yield is "Call Risk." By investing in individual fixed income instruments, bond funds and yield-focused ETFs, investors wary of the stock market are looking for yield. The issue is that they probably aren't factoring in the risks associated with buying a fixed income instrument at a premium. In this piece, we will illustrate Call Risk, as well as highlight some instruments that we think should continue to perform well in the face of increasing interest rates and looming Call Risk.
While it may make sense to pay a premium for a high value piece of paper (e.g., a Financial Bond or Preferred issued at a high yield in 2008 and 2009 due to distressed market conditions), one must be cognizant of the moving parts that could impact their returns.
For example, the JP Morgan Chase Preferred 8.625% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock (JPM/PI 27.75) is an issue we've highlighted in the Income Focus comment (found on In Play under the ticker YIELD) based on its attractive coupon (8.625%). In addition to the coupon appeal, the Preferred pays Qualified Dividends, which means the distributions are taxed at the dividend tax rate of 15% rather than the marginal tax rate at which interest income is taxed. For high income individuals, this effectively provides an additional 200 basis points of after-tax yield (15% tax rate vs 35%).
The JP Morgan instrument is a name that I personally was buying in November in the $26.20 area. At this price, the effective yield of 8.2% -- about the highest yielding JP Morgan paper available. Factor in the "preferred" status of the dividend distributions (taxed at 15% instead of up to 35%) and you're talking an effective yield of over 9% depending on your tax bracket.
Understanding that it could be a very long time before we saw another piece of JP Morgan paper with this type of yield, I purchased twice my normal size -- half as an investment position for the purpose of income and half as a trading position. The trading position was sold in the $27.25 area as I perceived "fair value" to be about in this area.
However, as money continued to flow into the yield side of the market (Bonds, Preferreds, Fixed Income ETFs), the JP Morgan Preferred found legs up to the $29.00 area, which reduced the yield to 7.4% ($2.15 annual distribution divided by the stock price)
I sold my core investment position into this advance as I felt that the Call Risk would eventually put a cap on the upside and start to draw the Preferred Stock back towards its $25.00 par value. Although this security doesn't have an actual maturity date, JP Morgan has the option to "Call" it as of 9/1/2013. The company was forced to offer such a yield initially because the paper was issued during a period of distress in the financial markets (IPO date of this security was Aug 2008). JP Morgan is now issuing Preferreds 200 basis points lower in the 6.8% range. At this point, I'd say it's safe to assume that the company will exercise the Call feature instead of continuing to pay an unnecessarily high distribution.
While the Call date is more than three years out, one must start to account for the 14% capital loss that would be suffered if buying this security at $29.00 and having it called at way at the $25.00 par value that JP Morgan would buy it back. This amounts to about a year-and-half worth of dividend payments, or approximately half of what one would stand to earn by holding this security through its Call Date. At current prices, this JP Morgan Preferred has already come in 4% off recent highs, which is more than half the 7.4% in dividend income that an investor in this security at $29.00 would stand to earn in interest for the year.
Are There Opportunities Remaining In the Preferred Market?
I think the door is closing quickly on opportunities in the Preferreds space. There is a thirst for yield in this market, which has carried most names to the point that Call risk will handicap performance going forward.
There have been a few attractive deals come through the pipeline in recent months such as the Citigroup Capital XII, 8.50% Fixed/Floating Trust Preferred (C/PJ 25.75, current yield 8.25%) issued mid-March with an 8.5% coupon and 5.87% LIBOR spread once it starts floating in 2015 and the JPMorgan Chase Capital 7.2% Fixed-to-Floating Capital Securities (JPM/PB 26.30, current yield 6.84%). Both securities were issued with a $25.00 par value.
Some of this new paper has been attractive based on 1) Yields, 2) Floating Rate feature that diminishes some of the interest rate risk, 3) extended Call protection.
I own both of the securities listed above and would consider adding more on pullbacks of 0.40-0.50. These securities were issued over the past several months and have approx. 5 years of "Call Protection." They also possess a floating rate feature that will cause the interest payments to adjust with LIBOR after the first five years, making the securities attractive in a rising interest rate environment (fixed rate securities often decline in a rising rate environment as new paper comes to market with higher yields)
On the value front, I've been buying Deutsche Bank Contingent Capital Trust V, 8.05% Trust Preferred Securities (DKT 25.52 -0.06, current yield 7.88%). The security makes quarterly payments of $2.01 a share, for a yield at par of 8.05%. The initial Call date is not until June 2018, which means that the only thing that should restrict upside in the security for the next several years is its absolute yield relative to similar securities in the marketplace. Given that tier-1 financial institutions have been able to issue new Preferreds in the 6.5%-7.0% range, the Deutsche Bank paper offers value here given its current yield of 7.88%. The distributions it makes also qualify for the 15% dividend tax rate.
A more speculative name worth noting is the Zions Bancorp (ZB/PC 25.09, current yield 9.5%). Zions is a bank that remains in turnaround mode, but analysts and investors have warmed to the story in recent months and the company is projected to return to profitability in 2011. I like the value of the Preferred (9.5% yield and qualifies for the 15% dividend tax treatment) and was buying it last week in the $24.50 area. I was hoping for a move into the $24/23.75 zone to establish a full position as I felt the significant rally the security has seen off its lows could lead to some profit-taking (the entire market for Bank Preferred Stocks collapsed in early-2009 when there was legitimate concern of system wide bank failures). The Call date on this security is Sept 1, 2013. However, should the Zion's Bancorp story continue to improve, I could see the Preferred trading to a yield in the 8.7% range, which would translate to a price of approx. $27.20.
For live analysis of the Preferred and Corporate Bond markets, create alerts using the YIELD ticker or simply search the In Play page for our latest comments using this ticker.
pier_pat
Mountaineering
Si è schizzata verso l'alto... ma il mio PMC è 52
Sul denaro non ti so dire devo ancora sentire il desk obbligazionario!
La hellas 6% stamane si prendeva sotto i 90.... e io non ho resistito...
GolosoneMi sembra una Buona Entrata..
90+6,5 di Rateo....quasi 97 con Commissioni..
siamo OT ma io oggi ho preferito GR0128002590 2014 6.5%, quasi 98 con commissioni...
negusneg
New Member
Forse ora vendere non ha senso, ma certo non aveva molto senso comprare a mani basse qualche settimana fa. E non dite che non vi avevamo avvisati
Sul fatto che abbiano retto non mi farei troppe illusioni...
E' un segno di scarsa liquidità: nel bene o nel male i TdS greci fanno prezzo, oltre un certo punto le perpetue greche no...
Ocio e in bocca al lupo
negusneg
New Member
Ciao cumulate, condivido anche io dalla prima all'ultima riga (come no perpetual no party) il post precedente a questo
Attenzione però, che i codici di onore evolvono (sfortunatamente
)Altrimenti come spiegheresti nomi come Deutsche Bank, Axa, Credit Agricole, Prudential, Santander e Allianz? Per non citarne altri...
Attenzione che gran parte delle regole sono ancora da scrivere...
Per esempio, la storia della bad bank...
negusneg
New Member
Questo credo sarà motivo di riflessione nei prossimi mesi. Ci sono pochi precedenti, ma temo che nonostante le ipotesi più ottimistiche dei nostri amici tedeschi la "bad bank" si porterà dietro un forte hair cut (questa volta vero, cioè un taglio del valore nominale) per tutte le obbligazioni subordinate.
D'altronde non vedo francamente un motivo logico per cui un contribuente europeo dovrebbe sensatamente rimborsare a 100 una obbligazione subordinata, magari comprata a 50...
negusneg
New Member
Ciao Gianni
anche se non condivido tutto, sono molto d'accordo su questo passaggio. E comunque leggere questi siti americani ci conferma, ancora una volta, che mejo de noi 'un ce n'è (anche se non "semo romani"
).bosmeld
Forumer storico
penso sia proprio questo il punto. certo è che almeno per il momento, in TEORIA non possono decidere di tagliare unilateralmente il nominale sugli lt2 (almeno credo) a meno che non facciano qualche legginna o giochino sporco.
Northern rock, non ha tagliato nominale, e continua a pagare le cedole.
per altro c'è da dire che la bad bank di anglo irish non sarebbbe poi tanto BAD visto che la maggiuor parte della mondezza se la prende il NAMA,
cmq la cosa è da monitorare con attenzione. si potrebbero fare bei soldini, ma come tutte le cose dove ci sono alti guadagni, ci sono alti rischi.
parlando d'altro, ti volevo chiedere se hai qualche info, o una visione su Depa, visto che so che ne hai alcune. io sinceramente non so che fare con quelle che mi sono rimaste. tenerle e sperare che prima o poi si rivalutino, o venderle cmq incamerando un ottimo gain percentuale.
tu che visione hai? la cosa che mi lascia molto perplesso è la forte differenza di prezzo tra le emissioni Depfa e Hypo re che a mio avviso mi sembra esagerata.
anche se ancora non è stato chiarito del tutto se queste emissioni Depfa finiranno nella bad, o nella good bank.
Zorba
Bos 4 Mod
Per me Anglo si offrirà di comprare gli LT2 a un prezzo simile a quello a cui ha ceduto i propri crediti a Nama (circa 50%). Io sono dentro a 34,5, per cui...
Non vedo come l'Irlanda possa legalmente e fattivamente tagliare il nominale di obbligazioni LT2. Ci sono 2 alternative una peggio dell'altra:
(i) soluzione B&B: l'ha fatta una sola volta l'Inghilterra, che ha ben altri muscoli rispetto all'Eire, e non l'ha più ripetuta...
(ii) default di Anglo: il governo ci ha messo i soldi e la faccia; sarebbe un autogol pazzesco. Per non parlare delle eventuali responsabilità derivanti del periodo in cui Anglo è stata gestita dallo Stato...
Per me faranno una successione di Opa/Ops a prezzi progressivamente crescenti su 'sti benedetti subordinati.
Al di là di questo, io faccio una considerazione più generale: mi sembra che queste bad bank arrivino quando il leggero vento di ripresa sta già soffiando (vedi n rock). Ecco non mi stupirei se tra un paio d'anni ci riservassero qualche sorpresa positiva.
negusneg
New Member
Ciao bos,
non ho info particolari, anche io come te sono perplesso, considera che quelle poche le ho prese a 100 (o poco meno).La tentazione di vendere è forte, comunque, se arriva a 30 mi sa che lo faccio...
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