WestLB $ hybrid and bad-bank-split
hi, you are welcome and thank you for your suggestion.
Hello bosmeld, thanx for your reply! Also thanx and hi to maxinblack!
I am intrested with this bonds of westLb .
we've already asked some question to the Investor relation of the bank.
the investor relation said that if they will close the year in loss, no coupon will be paid, and they will also use the loss absorbtion option....
It is important to know if there will be any cost with the new plan.
in particular they want to give €85 billion of asset to the bad bank . but i don't now if there will be any cost over it....anyway i already have the two silent participation of the bank....
i hope that they will continue to pay, but i am not sure over it.
i don't know why, but in my mind i also think that maybe they will close the year with a big loss, because of the cost of the rescue plan.
As known, the bond will still pay in december 09.
And you are right, the most important question is if there will be losses due to the split of WestLB and WestLB-bad-bank. As far as I read the ad-hocs, there might be losses in 2009 due to the split but only up to a maximum of about 3 billion Euros. The rest of the losses of the toxic assets are to be burdened by the owners (Sparkassen and Land NRW) but not by WestLB itself! The IR confirmed that the hybrids are staying in whole at the WestLB-Good bank! This is very positive for the future outlook for the WestLB-good-Bank and of course the hybrids.
But it gets even better: In the ad-hoc about the split there was no mentioning of a certain or possible loss due to the split. Under german laws one has to make any loss public as soon as it is known ("ad-hoc-publizitätspflicht"). Therefore, one could argue, no big losses should arise from the Split. [If a loss is announced one could seek court action if one bought after the ad-hoc, with very good prospects, imho.]
however the price in this moment is really very actractive
Yes, indeed. I have made up two scenarios:
bad case: Loss because of split of 3 billion in 2009; downwriting of the hybrids due to loss participation to (9,6-3)/9,6= 68%. So no coupons in 2010 and 2011 (coupons depend on the balance of the preceeding year). Upwriting of the hybrids to 100% and coupons from 2012 on, otherwise there will be no dividends or payments on the pari-passu SoFFin-silent partnership, remember WestLB has to be sold until 2012...
Therefore the hybrids could trade at 60%-80% at the end of 2013 (with then a current yield of 10%-13%)
Alternative calculation for present values: 8% of a downwritten 68% are 5,44%. With a current yield of 11% the hybrid should trade at 49%, but if one substracts two coupons that might not be paid one settles at 49%-2*5,44% = ca. 38% at which it is almost trading today. remember: This is the bad case.
good case: No loss in 2009 in WestLB due to the split (all losses on toxic assets in following years in the bad-bank for which the WestLB has to pay only a fraction and over a long time), but still a small loss overall. So no coupons in 2010, but from 2011 on. The hybrid should trade at 60%-80% already in 2010 with a current yield of 10%-13%.
[Of course one should not speculate on a call in 2011 or coupon payments in 2010].
One more thing on the the price-relation of the $ and the € hybrid: In absence of call fantasies and currency phobias the $ hybrid should trade about a relative 33% higher than the € hybrid, due to the higher coupon. Currently, the $ hybrid trades lower than the € hybrid, which is strange to me.
this part of your topic is very interesting
they are pari passu with the new silent partnership of the german Bank-rescuing agency SoFFin
i read that the Soffin can change is silent partecipation in shares.
"The SoFFin will in a first step take a silent participation to the value of €3billion in the WestLB core bank which from 01.07.2010 can be converted to shares."
but if they take the silent partecipation, i think they will like to receive coupon, and if they pay coupon to the soffin in turn they will pay us.
Right, that is one more upside to the hybrids. By the way: Same is true for all Commerzbank hybrids and teh SoFFin silent partnership.