Stato
Chiusa ad ulteriori risposte.
ciao a tutti!
l'altro giorno ho dato una "sistemata" al mio pf perpetue
vendute 10k di aegon , gli ultimi 5k di abn (ce le avevo ancora in carico a meno di 40!), 10k di axa (le avevo prese mi pare a novembre, a 58 circa, ora stavano vicine ai 70) e 2k di HSN a 42 ("robaccia" che il mitico Bosmeld mi aveva fatto prendere in estate a 16 insieme a depfa a 10)
e ho preso 25k di DPB Z1
Insomma...ho venduto roba che era andata quasi a 70 , per prendere queste a 60
Magari sbaglio, ma queste DPB, insieme alle Baca (di cui ne ho 75k) mi sembrano essere rimaste un po' indietro..
ho ancora 10k di aegon, 10k di erste (quella meno cara) e 20k di ING e circa 10k liquidi, verrebbe la voglia di liquidare aegon, erste , ing e prendere la SNS di cui tanto parlate

pero' quel maledetto taglio da 50k mi da un fastidio....
ciao!!
 
Hallo guys,
my view is the following:

I would start gradually selling some fixed rate P and buy some linked to the 10yr swap rate. My portfolio at the moment is 80% fixed 20% 10yr swap rate. I would like to get to 60% - 40% by the end of the summer.
I see a lot of potential for the steepening of the curve in the next years. What we need to bear in mind is that for the pricing of 10yr swap rate linked bond it is very important as a general rule the 10yr swap rate implied in the curve in 5 yrs time i.e. the 10yrs swap rate from April 2015 to april 2025: even a tiny movement of this rate can have huge effects on the pricing. I would bet for a gradual steepening of the curve.

I would back your allocation move away from that 80:20. Of course implied future swap rates are important. But also keep in mind that the steepness of the curve (10yrs-2yrs) is at record wides. Not much steepening is left here which would fit in with the economic cycle situation we are in. I would also expect 10yrs gradually move higher with the overall curve but at the same time a less steep curve, which, of course calls for relative stronger movement in the short end of the curve. So my advide would be also to take a look at 3M-linkers (pre and post call).

To sum this up:
1. Still overweight fixed rate as rate hikes move further out in time; will sell slowly.
2. Sold all my steepener (10yrs-2yrs), as steepness has reached record levels; would not add to them.
3. Adding to 3M-linkers over the course of the year as inflation outlook increases slowly.
4. Not adding 10yrs linker yet. This could change when a) inflation expectation and/or inflation increase considerably or b) later in this cycle just before the curve moves into inversion. ;-)
 
A proposito di greche, ma nella confusione di questi giorni quelli di EFG non avranno mica dimenticato qualcosa? Tipo la cedola della XS0234821345?
 
su lottomatica sono d'accordo anch'io...

non conosco il giudizio di negus o mais78 su questo titolo, mi sembra non ne abbiano mai parlato.. travolti dalle migliaia di richieste e info su bancari e assimilati :)
o almeno finora non sono riuscito a leggere niente..

ELM onestamente non ne so nulla....


MI AUTOQUOTO..
e faccio autocritica.. ho cercato Elm e ho visto che si tratta semplicemente della Swiss Re/Life... sorry, avrei dovuto cercare prima di chiedere..:-o
 
I would back your allocation move away from that 80:20. Of course implied future swap rates are important. But also keep in mind that the steepness of the curve (10yrs-2yrs) is at record wides. Not much steepening is left here which would fit in with the economic cycle situation we are in. I would also expect 10yrs gradually move higher with the overall curve but at the same time a less steep curve, which, of course calls for relative stronger movement in the short end of the curve. So my advide would be also to take a look at 3M-linkers (pre and post call).

To sum this up:
1. Still overweight fixed rate as rate hikes move further out in time; will sell slowly.
2. Sold all my steepener (10yrs-2yrs), as steepness has reached record levels; would not add to them.
3. Adding to 3M-linkers over the course of the year as inflation outlook increases slowly.
4. Not adding 10yrs linker yet. This could change when a) inflation expectation and/or inflation increase considerably or b) later in this cycle just before the curve moves into inversion. ;-)

I think as you
 
Stato
Chiusa ad ulteriori risposte.

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Alto