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Utilizzo questo commento di Moody's per trarne una info che è degna di una qualche attenzione (a tutto prescindere dal discorso dell'utilità o meno delle valutazioni delle agenzie di rating) e che io ad esempio non avevo seguito.
Qualcuno di voi ha idea di quali siano queste linee guida varate dalla Commissione Europea, apparentemente allo scopo di assimilare in futuro il trattamento da riservare ai bond ibridi in caso di aiuti di stato ? Potrebbe tornare utile conoscerle e farne oggetto di valutazione ...
Moody's sees broader impact on hybrid ratings triggered by EC's state aid reviews
New York, August 19, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service is broadening its review of certain hybrids issued by European banks and insurers where approval of state aid packages is pending before the European Commission.
To date, Moody's has incorporated into its bank and insurance hybrid ratings the probability that the European Commission may request hybrid coupon suspension in conjunction with its review of state aid packages.
While coupon suspensions have generally been limited to non-cumulative hybrid securities, this changed when KBC, a Belgian bank, was recently asked to refrain from paying coupons on some of its cumulative hybrids with optional deferral features.
To stabilize the financial market during the current crisis, governments have provided support to a number of European banks and insurers in the form of asset protection schemes and direct capital injections. To ensure that the cost burden of such state aid packages is adequately shared by the beneficiary bank and the government, the European Commission has advised certain European banks that have received state support to refrain from paying coupons on their hybrid securities.
In the most recent example, KBC issued core capital securities to the Belgian and Flemish governments in order to strengthen its solvency level.
KBC's support package is subject to review by the European Commission.
According to a press release issued by KBC on 11 August 2009, the European Commission advised KBC to refrain from paying discretionary coupons on some of its hybrid securities until the end of the year. As a result, KBC announced that coupon payments will not be made on its sterling cumulative hybrid securities in the second half of 2009, but will be paid on its non-cumulative trust preferred securities since coupon payments are considered to be mandatory.
Scrutiny of state aid packages by the European Commission is ongoing and will be conducted according to guidelines set out in the Commission Communication dated 22 July 2009.
As a result, Moody's will continue to factor the probability of skipped coupons into hybrid ratings and may increase the estimated probability of deferral for cumulative and non-cumulative securities based on the KBC example. In considering the potential ratings impact, Moody's is focusing on:
• The nature of state aid received and the nature and status of approval discussions, if such approval is required. For example, if state aid has already been approved by the European Commission without requiring the cessation of hybrid coupon payments, future payments may be less at risk for non-payment. Furthermore, pending approval may be in the form of "restructuring" or "viability" discussions, with potentially different implications for the institutions concerned. Broadly speaking, if state aid is pending, hybrid coupons may have a higher risk of non-payment.
• The type of hybrids that are outstanding and their features, including whether they are cumulative or non-cumulative. In addition, the coupons of hybrids with discretionary payment mechanisms may be more at risk for non-payment than those where non-payment is tied to the breach of specific financial triggers, which are not likely to be breached in the near term. In either case, an important consideration is the interplay of these features with contractual provisions mandating coupon payments if distributions on parity or more junior securities are paid.
• The intrinsic financial strength of the bank or insurer, which has received, or is waiting to receive, state aid. An issuer with a strong capital position relative to its peers may require less time to improve financial performance with the result that coupon suspension may be required for only a limited period of time.
Based on these factors, Moody's will continue to assess the hybrid ratings of banks and insurers that have received state aid while European Commission approval is pending to determine whether the probability of a skipped coupon, the severity of loss given non-payment, and the likely duration of coupon suspension is still accurately reflected in the current rating. To the extent that any of these factors has changed in Moody's view, the ratings may be adjusted.
