L'opinione di Moody's... il quadro è quello efficacemente descritto da Gaudente...
Moody's says pressures remain on Vietnam's Ba3 rating
Singapore, December 21, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service says that the outlook for the Vietnamese government's Ba3 foreign and local currency
bond ratings is negative as the effects of the global recession and re-emerging inflationary expectations are destabilizing external balances.
"Credit challenges are considerable enough to justify a negative rating outlook, but Vietnam's credit fundamentals have not yet moved out of the comfort zone for a Ba3 rating," says Byrne. "
The efficacy of the authorities' policy tightening and the path of recovery in global trade will be key determinants to the rating outlook."
"At the same time, Moody's notes that the ratings reflect progress made in externally oriented policies and state enterprise restructuring and reform. Prospects that Vietnam can continue on a path of relatively rapid economic growth seem favorable, if policies are supportive," says Thomas Byrne, a Moody's Senior Vice President.
"Moreover, public finances are manageable, even though the deficit has swelled as a result of a robust stimulus package and the adverse effects of the global financial crisis and recession," adds Byrne.
While the downturn in global trade dims somewhat Vietnam's prospects for continued rapid economic growth, the country's growth model may remain relatively vigorous.
Byrne was speaking on the release of Moody's latest annual report -- which he authored -- on Vietnam, and which looks specifically at key rating factors, including Economic Strength, Institutional Strength, Government Financial Strength and Event Risk.
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While the authorities are seeking to find a balance between pro-growth and stabilization policies, downward pressure on the exchange rate persists and the drain of official foreign exchange reserves has continued, according to available information," says Byrne.
In such a context, for Moody's to consider a change in the rating outlook to stable there would need to be a stabilization of the balance of payments and the loss in official foreign exchange reserves would need to be stemmed. This would likely require additional policy adjustments, as well as a boost from an uninterrupted recovery in the global economy.
Moody's notes that Vietnam's nearly $100 billion economy remains relatively moderate in scale and its certain institutional features and the country's per capita income remains relatively low among its Ba rating peers. However, Vietnam's relatively high savings rate and considerable external financing support from the World Bank and other official creditors provides for moderate government financial strength. And social stability in Vietnam reduces political event risk.
"On balance, our methodological assessment of Vietnam's credit fundamentals remain supportive of its Ba3 rating, although macroeconomic imbalances justify a negative rating outlook and have not completely allayed rating concerns," says Byrne.
The last rating action with respect to Vietnam was on June 4, 2008 when Moody's changed the rating outlook to negative from positive on the government's Ba3 ratings, while maintaining a negative outlook.
The principal methodology used in rating the government of Vietnam is Moody's Sovereign Bond Ratings, published in September 2008, which can be found at
OpenDNS in the Reserch & Ratings directory, in the Ratings Methodologies subdirectory. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Rating Methodologies subdirectory on Moody's website.
http://www.moodys.com
