Obbligazioni valute high yield Vietnam
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Over the counter (cioe' fregandoti sul prezzo) credo proprio di si'.
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aggiornamento...
Companies in Vietnam Struggling to Buy Dollars, Citigroup Says - Bloomberg.com continuano le difficolta' delle imprese importatrici a reperire i $ dalle banche. La liquidita' in $ e' cosi' scarsa che il governo ha chiesto alle sue aziende statali, la Vietnam Airlines e la Vietnam Oil di vendere immediatamente le loro disponibilita' in $.
Il cambio ufficiale continua ad essere inchiodato a 18.474 , mentre nelle oreficerie si cambia 19.340.
Impennata dell'inflazione a gennaio che sale al 7,62% annuo.
Salgono anche i tassi sui titoli di stato, il decennale e' al 12,50%
(140 punti base in piu' rispetto ad inizio anno)
AsianBondsOnline - Viet Nam
qui potete vedere l'evoluzione del rendimento del quinquennale
Bloomberg.com: Personal Finance
Io come al solito sono pronto ad entrare non appena si decideranno a svalutare
Companies in Vietnam Struggling to Buy Dollars, Citigroup Says - Bloomberg.com continuano le difficolta' delle imprese importatrici a reperire i $ dalle banche. La liquidita' in $ e' cosi' scarsa che il governo ha chiesto alle sue aziende statali, la Vietnam Airlines e la Vietnam Oil di vendere immediatamente le loro disponibilita' in $.
Il cambio ufficiale continua ad essere inchiodato a 18.474 , mentre nelle oreficerie si cambia 19.340.
Impennata dell'inflazione a gennaio che sale al 7,62% annuo.
Salgono anche i tassi sui titoli di stato, il decennale e' al 12,50%
(140 punti base in piu' rispetto ad inizio anno)
AsianBondsOnline - Viet Nam
qui potete vedere l'evoluzione del rendimento del quinquennale
Bloomberg.com: Personal Finance
Io come al solito sono pronto ad entrare non appena si decideranno a svalutare
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dong svalutato del 3,3%
Vietnam Dong Weakens to Record Low After Devaluation (Update3) - Bloomberg.com nuovo cambio di riferimento fissato a 18.544 , con banda massima di oscillazione fino a 19.100.
Personalmente reputo la misura insufficiente, anche se il fatto che il dong venga scambiato a 18.725 , cioe' non a ridosso del valore massimo , sembrerebbe suggerire che si sia trovato un equilibrio.
Vietnam Dong Weakens to Record Low After Devaluation (Update3) - Bloomberg.com nuovo cambio di riferimento fissato a 18.544 , con banda massima di oscillazione fino a 19.100.
Personalmente reputo la misura insufficiente, anche se il fatto che il dong venga scambiato a 18.725 , cioe' non a ridosso del valore massimo , sembrerebbe suggerire che si sia trovato un equilibrio.
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Dong si stabilizza ?
Tempi duri per noi luridi avvoltoi.
Da tempo ormai immemorabile sto aspettando una corposa svalutazione del dong unitamente ad un corposo rialzo dei rendimenti a lunga.
Il fatto che il cambio in marzo si fosse nuovamente portato a ridosso del massimo della banda di oscillazione (19.100 dong/$) mi aveva fatto ben sperare che la mia attesa fosse giunta al termine.
Invece ecco avvenire l'impensabile: il cambio si riporta sotto 19.000 ed ora mi tocca addirittura leggere di un possibile apprezzamento del dong
Dong set to sustain gains, Vietnam’s biggest fund manager says
Last updated: 4/21/2010 21:35
The dong is set to sustain recent gains against the US dollar, damping concern of another devaluation of the currency, according to the securities unit of Vietnam’s biggest fund manager.
Fitch Ratings last month cited lack of confidence in the dong and the gap between the official and black-market exchange rates in placing Vietnam’s debt rating on negative watch. The currency has now stabilized, said Alan Pham, chief economist for VinaSecurities Joint-Stock Co., the brokerage unit of VinaCapital Investment Management Ltd., which oversees about $1.7 billion.
“The dong’s value will stay stable in the near future, or may even show slight appreciation occasionally,” Ho Chi Minh City-based Pham wrote in a research note. “With moderate inflation and adequate capital inflows, the dong’s value is sustainable.”
Vietnam’s first-quarter trade shortfall of $3.5 billion is more than covered through inflows of foreign direct investment and remittances from overseas, Pham wrote. Disbursements from a $1 billion bond sale in January are also now complete, he said.
The deficit, inflation and the balance of payments are the three biggest influences on the exchange rate, said Pham. The trade gap should benefit from stronger exports in coming months, and inflation may ease to as low as 8 percent by year-end, from 9.46 percent in March, the research said.
The currency traded at 18,970 per dollar as of 10:45 a.m. in Hanoi, having strengthened from 19,085 a month ago. On the unofficial market, the dong changed hands at about 19,030, according to a telephone information service run by state-owned Vietnam Posts & Telecommunications.
‘Fundamental shift’
The official and black-market exchange rates have “occasionally attained parity,” and a narrowing of the gap signifies a “fundamental shift” in stability of the dong, he said. The gap between the two rates widened to as much as 12 percent late last year.
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to about $15 billion by the end of last year from $23 billion in 2008 as Vietnam defended the dong, according to Pham. The government has devalued the dong twice since November. The World Bank said this month it expects the reserves to increase to $17.5 billion this year.
Kevin Grice, a London-based economist at Capital Economics Ltd., predicted last month that the dong would stabilize this year, citing fewer strains on the balance of payments and rising capital inflows from remittances and foreign investment.
“Any further Vietnamese dong slippage to come will be small and orderly,” Grice wrote. Capital Economics forecasts the dong will end 2010 at 19,200 per dollar, he said.
Source: Bloomberg
Vietnam latest news - Thanh Nien Daily | Dong set to sustain gains, Vietnam?s biggest fund manager says
Nell'articolo si pronostica un'inflazione dell'8% per la fine dell'anno, a mio avviso un po' troppo elevata per potersi aspettare un cambio stabile, figuriamoci in apprezzamento .... chi vivra' vedra'
Tempi duri per noi luridi avvoltoi.
Da tempo ormai immemorabile sto aspettando una corposa svalutazione del dong unitamente ad un corposo rialzo dei rendimenti a lunga.
Il fatto che il cambio in marzo si fosse nuovamente portato a ridosso del massimo della banda di oscillazione (19.100 dong/$) mi aveva fatto ben sperare che la mia attesa fosse giunta al termine.
Invece ecco avvenire l'impensabile: il cambio si riporta sotto 19.000 ed ora mi tocca addirittura leggere di un possibile apprezzamento del dong
Dong set to sustain gains, Vietnam’s biggest fund manager says
Last updated: 4/21/2010 21:35
The dong is set to sustain recent gains against the US dollar, damping concern of another devaluation of the currency, according to the securities unit of Vietnam’s biggest fund manager.
Fitch Ratings last month cited lack of confidence in the dong and the gap between the official and black-market exchange rates in placing Vietnam’s debt rating on negative watch. The currency has now stabilized, said Alan Pham, chief economist for VinaSecurities Joint-Stock Co., the brokerage unit of VinaCapital Investment Management Ltd., which oversees about $1.7 billion.
“The dong’s value will stay stable in the near future, or may even show slight appreciation occasionally,” Ho Chi Minh City-based Pham wrote in a research note. “With moderate inflation and adequate capital inflows, the dong’s value is sustainable.”
Vietnam’s first-quarter trade shortfall of $3.5 billion is more than covered through inflows of foreign direct investment and remittances from overseas, Pham wrote. Disbursements from a $1 billion bond sale in January are also now complete, he said.
The deficit, inflation and the balance of payments are the three biggest influences on the exchange rate, said Pham. The trade gap should benefit from stronger exports in coming months, and inflation may ease to as low as 8 percent by year-end, from 9.46 percent in March, the research said.
The currency traded at 18,970 per dollar as of 10:45 a.m. in Hanoi, having strengthened from 19,085 a month ago. On the unofficial market, the dong changed hands at about 19,030, according to a telephone information service run by state-owned Vietnam Posts & Telecommunications.
‘Fundamental shift’
The official and black-market exchange rates have “occasionally attained parity,” and a narrowing of the gap signifies a “fundamental shift” in stability of the dong, he said. The gap between the two rates widened to as much as 12 percent late last year.
Foreign-exchange reserves fell to about $15 billion by the end of last year from $23 billion in 2008 as Vietnam defended the dong, according to Pham. The government has devalued the dong twice since November. The World Bank said this month it expects the reserves to increase to $17.5 billion this year.
Kevin Grice, a London-based economist at Capital Economics Ltd., predicted last month that the dong would stabilize this year, citing fewer strains on the balance of payments and rising capital inflows from remittances and foreign investment.
“Any further Vietnamese dong slippage to come will be small and orderly,” Grice wrote. Capital Economics forecasts the dong will end 2010 at 19,200 per dollar, he said.
Source: Bloomberg
Vietnam latest news - Thanh Nien Daily | Dong set to sustain gains, Vietnam?s biggest fund manager says
Nell'articolo si pronostica un'inflazione dell'8% per la fine dell'anno, a mio avviso un po' troppo elevata per potersi aspettare un cambio stabile, figuriamoci in apprezzamento .... chi vivra' vedra'
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Stima PPP secondo la Banca Mondiale
la PPP nel 2005 era di 4.712,69 dong per $ .
L'inflazione negli anni successivi e' stata:
Vietnam 2006 6,6% 2007 12,6% 2008 19,9% 2009 6,52%
USA 2006 2,5% 2007 4,1% 2008 0,1% 2009 2,7%
Facendo le solite moltiplicazioni e divisioni di rito la PPP aggiornata a dicembre 2009 era di 6.587 dong per $ , che rapportati al cambio attuale di 19.000 rappresentano uno sconto del 65% in termini di PPP .
Ripensandoci ... dopotutto il cambio potrebbe restare stabile anche con un'inflazione all'8%
la PPP nel 2005 era di 4.712,69 dong per $ .
L'inflazione negli anni successivi e' stata:
Vietnam 2006 6,6% 2007 12,6% 2008 19,9% 2009 6,52%
USA 2006 2,5% 2007 4,1% 2008 0,1% 2009 2,7%
Facendo le solite moltiplicazioni e divisioni di rito la PPP aggiornata a dicembre 2009 era di 6.587 dong per $ , che rapportati al cambio attuale di 19.000 rappresentano uno sconto del 65% in termini di PPP .
Ripensandoci ... dopotutto il cambio potrebbe restare stabile anche con un'inflazione all'8%
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downgrade Fitch da BB- a B+
Vietnam's Debt Rating Lowered by Fitch on Foreign Borrowing, `Weak' Banks - Bloomberg
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Vietnam's Debt Rating Lowered by Fitch on Foreign Borrowing, `Weak' Banks
By Jason Folkmanis - Jul 29, 2010
Vietnam’s debt rating was lowered by Fitch Ratings on concern about the nation’s “inconsistent” economic policy, foreign-exchange reserves and banking system.
The country’s long-term foreign and local-currency ratings were cut to B+ from BB-, with a stable outlook, Fitch said in a statement today. The new rating is four steps below investment grade and contrasts with improving creditworthiness this year among emerging markets from Indonesia to Ukraine.
Fitch highlighted a budget deficit it expects to stay “high” at 7.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2010, which the government is financing partly by issuing foreign-currency debt even when the nation is running a current-account deficit.
“Vietnam’s sovereign creditworthiness has deteriorated on the back of weaker external finances and rising external financing requirements amid an inconsistent macroeconomic policy framework,” Ai Ling Ngiam, a director in Fitch’s Asia Sovereign team, said in today’s release. She also cited a “weak banking system.”
The International Monetary Fund said last month that Vietnam’s foreign reserves had declined to the equivalent of seven weeks of imports from less than two-and-a-half months in December. It estimated the current-account deficit would be 9.9 percent of GDP this year, down from 10.4 percent in 2009.
Dong ‘Vulnerable’
Fitch said Vietnam’s foreign-exchange reserves had declined to $13.8 billion in March, before recovering “marginally,” without giving a figure. It said the Vietnamese dong is vulnerable to shocks to domestic confidence.
The currency, which was devalued in February, was little changed at 19,075 per dollar at 12:02 p.m. and has fallen 3.2 percent this year. The benchmark Ho Chi Minh stock index closed little changed at 491.11.
“External debt levels for Vietnam look manageable,” said Matt Hildebrandt, a Singapore-based economist for JPMorgan Chase & Co. “The downgrade was appropriate because Vietnam’s credit quality is weaker than peers such as Indonesia and the Philippines, but I wouldn’t expect any further downgrades by Fitch, and I think the risk of a default is very low.”
Vietnam’s policy makers have urged banks to reduce lending costs to bolster the economy even as inflation has held above 8 percent since February. Consumer prices rose 8.19 percent in July from a year earlier, compared with 8.69 percent in June.
Against the Grain
“The authorities have gone back and forth on fighting inflation or supporting growth, and their recent focus on driving rates lower goes against the grain of other Asian central banks,” said Tai Hui, the head of Southeast Asian economic research at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore.
Vietnam’s move to target growth over managing inflation is a “dangerous strategy,” given its “low” level of foreign reserves and a lack of confidence in the dong, Kevin Grice, a London-based economist at Capital Economics Ltd., said in a July 19 note.
Vietnam’s sovereign credit-default swaps rose after Fitch lowered the country’s rating. The five-year price rose 5 basis points to 225 basis points, according to Deutsche Bank AG prices. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. Vietnam raised $1 billion when it sold its second foreign bond in January, the first such sale since its initial offering in 2005.
“There are no plans for any new government sovereign-debt sales anytime soon so Fitch’s move wouldn’t have any impact there, though there may be some negative implications for the bonds that are already out there,” said Lawrence Wolfe, director of business development at DongA Securities Co. in Ho Chi Minh City.
Trade Deficit
Vietnam’s trade deficit widened in July from the previous month on falling exports. The shortfall reached $1.15 billion from a revised $742 million in June. For the seven months through July, the deficit was $7.4 billion, almost twice the figure for the same period last year.
The nation’s economic growth accelerated to 6.4 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. Outstanding loans rose 10.52 percent in the first six months of the year. The central bank’s full-year target for credit growth is 25 percent and Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung’s government is targeting 6.5 percent GDP expansion in 2010.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Folkmanis in Berkeley, California at [email protected]
®2010 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Allora lo vogliamo svalutare 'sto dong e li vogliamo alzare 'sti tassi ?
Vietnam's Debt Rating Lowered by Fitch on Foreign Borrowing, `Weak' Banks - Bloomberg
Vietnam's Debt Rating Lowered by Fitch on Foreign Borrowing, `Weak' Banks
By Jason Folkmanis - Jul 29, 2010
Vietnam’s debt rating was lowered by Fitch Ratings on concern about the nation’s “inconsistent” economic policy, foreign-exchange reserves and banking system.
The country’s long-term foreign and local-currency ratings were cut to B+ from BB-, with a stable outlook, Fitch said in a statement today. The new rating is four steps below investment grade and contrasts with improving creditworthiness this year among emerging markets from Indonesia to Ukraine.
Fitch highlighted a budget deficit it expects to stay “high” at 7.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2010, which the government is financing partly by issuing foreign-currency debt even when the nation is running a current-account deficit.
“Vietnam’s sovereign creditworthiness has deteriorated on the back of weaker external finances and rising external financing requirements amid an inconsistent macroeconomic policy framework,” Ai Ling Ngiam, a director in Fitch’s Asia Sovereign team, said in today’s release. She also cited a “weak banking system.”
The International Monetary Fund said last month that Vietnam’s foreign reserves had declined to the equivalent of seven weeks of imports from less than two-and-a-half months in December. It estimated the current-account deficit would be 9.9 percent of GDP this year, down from 10.4 percent in 2009.
Dong ‘Vulnerable’
Fitch said Vietnam’s foreign-exchange reserves had declined to $13.8 billion in March, before recovering “marginally,” without giving a figure. It said the Vietnamese dong is vulnerable to shocks to domestic confidence.
The currency, which was devalued in February, was little changed at 19,075 per dollar at 12:02 p.m. and has fallen 3.2 percent this year. The benchmark Ho Chi Minh stock index closed little changed at 491.11.
“External debt levels for Vietnam look manageable,” said Matt Hildebrandt, a Singapore-based economist for JPMorgan Chase & Co. “The downgrade was appropriate because Vietnam’s credit quality is weaker than peers such as Indonesia and the Philippines, but I wouldn’t expect any further downgrades by Fitch, and I think the risk of a default is very low.”
Vietnam’s policy makers have urged banks to reduce lending costs to bolster the economy even as inflation has held above 8 percent since February. Consumer prices rose 8.19 percent in July from a year earlier, compared with 8.69 percent in June.
Against the Grain
“The authorities have gone back and forth on fighting inflation or supporting growth, and their recent focus on driving rates lower goes against the grain of other Asian central banks,” said Tai Hui, the head of Southeast Asian economic research at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore.
Vietnam’s move to target growth over managing inflation is a “dangerous strategy,” given its “low” level of foreign reserves and a lack of confidence in the dong, Kevin Grice, a London-based economist at Capital Economics Ltd., said in a July 19 note.
Vietnam’s sovereign credit-default swaps rose after Fitch lowered the country’s rating. The five-year price rose 5 basis points to 225 basis points, according to Deutsche Bank AG prices. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. Vietnam raised $1 billion when it sold its second foreign bond in January, the first such sale since its initial offering in 2005.
“There are no plans for any new government sovereign-debt sales anytime soon so Fitch’s move wouldn’t have any impact there, though there may be some negative implications for the bonds that are already out there,” said Lawrence Wolfe, director of business development at DongA Securities Co. in Ho Chi Minh City.
Trade Deficit
Vietnam’s trade deficit widened in July from the previous month on falling exports. The shortfall reached $1.15 billion from a revised $742 million in June. For the seven months through July, the deficit was $7.4 billion, almost twice the figure for the same period last year.
The nation’s economic growth accelerated to 6.4 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. Outstanding loans rose 10.52 percent in the first six months of the year. The central bank’s full-year target for credit growth is 25 percent and Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung’s government is targeting 6.5 percent GDP expansion in 2010.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Folkmanis in Berkeley, California at [email protected]
®2010 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Allora lo vogliamo svalutare 'sto dong e li vogliamo alzare 'sti tassi ?
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a onor del vero ....
...su questo bond il tasso soddisfa persino un arpagonico fan della doppia cifra come il sottoscritto Song Da Group finishes selling 1.5tr dong corporate bonds | Vietnam Business News
ANZ Bank has successfully finished holding the bond-issuing session for Song Da Group in dong with total value of 1.5 trillion dong or $79 million
ANZ Bank and Song Da Joint Stock Finance Co were the two co-managers and issuers for these five-year bonds. The interest rate for the first year has been fixed at 15 percent per year. The interest rates for the following years will be calculated at the floating interest rates equal to average deposit rates in 12 months of four large banks in Vietnam plus the amplitude of 4 percent.
Peccato che la sede vietnamita della ANZ da me interpellata sulla possibilita' di acquistare il bond sul mercato manco si sia degnata di darmi una risposta
...su questo bond il tasso soddisfa persino un arpagonico fan della doppia cifra come il sottoscritto Song Da Group finishes selling 1.5tr dong corporate bonds | Vietnam Business News
ANZ Bank has successfully finished holding the bond-issuing session for Song Da Group in dong with total value of 1.5 trillion dong or $79 million
ANZ Bank and Song Da Joint Stock Finance Co were the two co-managers and issuers for these five-year bonds. The interest rate for the first year has been fixed at 15 percent per year. The interest rates for the following years will be calculated at the floating interest rates equal to average deposit rates in 12 months of four large banks in Vietnam plus the amplitude of 4 percent.
Peccato che la sede vietnamita della ANZ da me interpellata sulla possibilita' di acquistare il bond sul mercato manco si sia degnata di darmi una risposta
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Vietnamese conundrum
Tensions remain on Vietnam's forex market | Vietnam Business News
in sintesi... la bilancia dei pagamenti chiude il primo semestre con un attivo di 3,4 miliardi di $ , le riserve della banca centrale crescono di 2 miliardi, quindi
aumentano le tensioni sul dong il cui cambio ufficiale e' schiacciato sul margine della banda di oscillazione a 19100 mentre al mercato nero il $ arriva anche a 19280.
Vabbeh immagino che tra gli svantaggi di un governo comunista ci sia anche quello che nessuno dei tuoi schiavi crede ad una parola di quello che dici
Tensions remain on Vietnam's forex market | Vietnam Business News
in sintesi... la bilancia dei pagamenti chiude il primo semestre con un attivo di 3,4 miliardi di $ , le riserve della banca centrale crescono di 2 miliardi, quindi
aumentano le tensioni sul dong il cui cambio ufficiale e' schiacciato sul margine della banda di oscillazione a 19100 mentre al mercato nero il $ arriva anche a 19280.Vabbeh immagino che tra gli svantaggi di un governo comunista ci sia anche quello che nessuno dei tuoi schiavi crede ad una parola di quello che dici
