DERIVATIVES: ISDA preps for Greek CDS auction
07 March 2012 | By Christopher Whittall
The International Swaps and Derivatives Association is busy preparing behind the scenes for potentially the highest-profile auction for credit default swaps the organisation has overseen.
There are still doubts over whether the plan to haircut €206bn of privately-held Greek debt to 53.5% of face value will go ahead, with Thursday’s deadline for participation swiftly approaching. But presuming it proceeds and collective actions clauses are exercised, it is widely expected that Greek CDS will trigger by the exchange’s settlement on March 12.
This process can be complicated in restructuring events, because outstanding bonds may be altered – or even disappear – prior to the auction date.
The EMEA Determinations Committee of 10 banks and five buyside firms will have the final say on a Greek credit event. For its part, ISDA has been carefully reviewing (or scrubbing) which bonds will be deliverable into a potential auction and determining the likely timeframe it would take place within.
“This is obviously a huge potential credit event. People are especially focused on this one to make sure we can iron out issues in advance,” said one person close to the process, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.
“We have been scrubbing the list of deliverable bonds for some time now. We do that for any auction, but we’ve obviously started in advance here, because we would want to get this auction done as quickly as possible,” he said.
Greek bonds will be delivered into a CDS auction to determine a settlement price for recovery payouts. If a CDS trigger is ruled to have taken place, ISDA will publish a list of deliverable bonds, which CDS users will have the right to challenge.
This process can be complicated in restructuring events, because outstanding bonds may be altered – or even disappear – prior to the auction date. There have been some notable corporate restructurings without enough bonds for the CDS auction. Some observers have raised concerns similar pitfalls may hamper a successful Greek auction, although practitioners predict the auction should run smoothly.
Deliverables
ISDA originally looked to ensure at least one liquid Greek-law bond was not exchanged until after a CDS auction to provide a potential “old” bond that would be deliverable. This tactic was deployed successfully in the restructuring of some of the Irish banks, but Greek authorities rejected the proposal.
“They didn’t want to do that because they have their own timetable, which is driven by other factors than the convenience of the CDS market,” the person close to the process explained.
As a result, the main deliverables look likely to be the €64.89bn of “new” Greek bonds that will have been exchanged, and the €18.5bn of international-law Greek bonds, whose proposed settlement date of April 11 is later than a likely auction. “We’d want to ensure any auction was well within the window of international law bonds existing, although we haven’t set a date for it,” added the person close to the process.
Participants underlined the availability of foreign-law bonds could be constrained if, as expected, some investors try to hold out against the restructuring (“Vulture prepare for Greek battle”, IFR 1921 p8). But traders remain sanguine the large rump of “new” bonds should still provide ample deliverables for the net notional of US$3.2bn of Greek CDS to be settled.
There will be 20 “new” Greek bonds of maturities between 11 and 30 years. Traders reckon they will be valued at around 25% of par – more or less mirroring CDS protection levels – and said the “new” bond with the longest tenor should be the cheapest to deliver in the auction.
“The new bonds will be relatively large issues of around €3bn each, so we’ll have a good price on them. The only unknown is how many bonds will be for sale in the auction, but I think the market has the depth to swallow anything,” said one head of sovereign CDS trading at a major house.
Trigger time
The CDS market is showing further signs of an approaching trigger. At 20% of face value, Greek-law bonds are trading below recovery swaps at 23 points upfront. It’s very rare for bonds to trade below recovery levels, indicating the market does not believe these bonds will be deliverable into a CDS auction. At the same time Greek five-year CDS has pushed out over the past few days and is now trading in line with recovery swaps at a bid-offer spread of 75/78 points upfront.
“I don’t think there is going to be an issue with the auction. For people outside it seems very complex, but it’s relatively straightforward for those who have done their homework. The biggest issue is whether it actually triggers, not the actual settlement of it, and the CDS and recovery market tell you people expect it to trigger,” said one European head of credit trading at a major house.
The decision over the trigger will be closely scrutinised by market observers. Two questions on Greek CDS triggers were rejected by the DC last week, although participants said this result had been expected.
There have also been further calls for increased transparency around the DC’s decision-making process. ISDA is currently drawing up best practice guidelines for DC members, although there is no indication these will ring wholesale changes such as requiring DC members to disclose their positions on a given name (“Dealers slam CDS committee ‘bias”, IFR 1913 p10).