L'aumento di capitale da 8 mld euro scongiura la possibilità di un calo di rating di Enel da parte di S&P, che ne afferma l'outlook stabile alla luce dell'atteso supporto da parte dello Stato italiano in caso di difficoltà, lasciando intendere che altrimenti l'outlook sarebbe negativo, ma affermando contestualmente che anche nel caso in cui il rating "stand alone" di Enel dovesse scivolare a BBB+, l'elevata probabilità di supporto da parte dello Stato conserverebbe il suo rating corporate a livello A- in virtù dei nuovi criteri valutativi applicati alle GRE (government related entities).
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Italian Utility Enel SpA Affirmed At 'A-/A-2' On Capital Increase; Off Watch; Outlook Stable
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- Italian utility Enel SpA has materially reduced refinancing risk and improved liquidity after raising €8 billion in equity.
- We are removing the 'A-' long term rating from CreditWatch negative and affirming the 'A-/A-2' long- and short-term ratings with a stable outlook.
- The 'A-' long-term rating is based on the company's stand-alone credit profile (SACP), which we assess at 'A-', as well as on our opinion that there is a "moderately high" likelihood that the Republic of Italy will provide timely and sufficient extraordinary support in the event of financial distress.
- There is still some pressure on Enel's SACP, but the stable outlook reflects that, in accordance with our criteria on government-related entities, we would affirm the 'A-' rating even if we were to lower our assessment of Enel's SACP to 'BBB+'.
MILAN (Standard & Poor's) July 13, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings services said today that it affirmed its 'A-' long-term and 'A-2' short-term corporate credit ratings on Italian utility Enel SpA. At the same time, the long-term rating was removed from CreditWatch with negative implications, where it was placed on Jan. 15, 2009. The outlook is stable.
"The rating action reflects that, in our view, Enel has strengthened its capital structure and reduced refinancing risk through its recent €8 billion capital increase," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Monica Mariani. It also reflects our opinion that Enel will derive further benefits from the sale of its domestic gas distribution grid and Endesa's assets in renewable energy.
The stable outlook reflects that, in accordance with our criteria on GREs, the 'A-' long-term rating would be affirmed even if we were to lower our assessment of Enel's SACP to 'BBB+' from the current 'A-'. Given the pressures on Enel's SACP and the stable outlook on the sovereign ratings, we do not currently see any rating upside.
Notwithstanding the positive impact of the recent rights issue and progress with asset disposals, we believe there are still risks that could limit Enel's ability to deliver the financial profile improvement that we have already factored into the 'A-' rating, including credit metrics of funds from operations (FFO) to debt of about 18% and FFO interest coverage of about 4x in 2009.
The risks we see include the difficult macroeconomic environment in Enel's key markets, Spain and Italy, which could have a larger-than-anticipated negative impact on financial performance; the possibility of delays in Enel's asset disposal program or of lower-than-expected disposal proceeds; and the material refinancing needs faced by the group. With reference to this latter aspect, in particular, we will continue to follow closely progress in the group's liquidity position in the second half of the year.
