Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Utilities Europa I (gennaio - luglio 2009)

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Ricordate che EDF è del pubblica al 80% circa. E siccome il debito, come detto, è elevato, la soluzione al problema è vista in alternativa in un incremento del 20% delle tariffe elettriche in 3 anni o in alternativa in un taglio degli investimenti...

Dopo l'acquisizione di British Energy, il debito è balzato da 16,3 a 24,5 mld euro.

A decidere sarà il Governo, ossia il controllore di EDF.

Si cerca inoltre di ottenere un prolungamento della vita media di un rettore atomico da 40 a 60 anni, con beneficio sui tempi di ammortamento dei costi di realizzazione e di rimando sui conti di EDF.

UPDATE 1-France's EDF seeks 20 pct tariff hike-report

Wed Jul 8, 2009 7:19am EDT

* Twenty percent rise in tariffs needed over next 3 years
* EDF will cut investments if government refuses
* EDF shares up 1.6 percent in early afternoon trade

(Updates with quotes, details)

PARIS, July 8 (Reuters) - France's EDF (EDF.PA) will ask the government for permission to raise electricity tariffs by a fifth to help it reduce debt, Chief Executive Pierre Gadonneix said in an interview with Paris Match.

"In order for us to stop getting into debt, we would need a 20 percent rise in tariffs. This could be spread out over three years, for example, or for a bit longer," Gadonneix said in an interview due to be published on Thursday.

If the government refused such an increase, Gadonneix said that EDF, which is more than 80 percent owned by the French state, would have to slash investments.

EDF has plans to invest 7.5 billion euros in France in 2009 alone. On Monday, it closed an offer for a retail bond, which reportedly raised nearly 3 billion euros, and the group has been active in the debt market in recent weeks.

The group's debt stood at 24.5 billion euros at the end of 2008, up from 16.3 billion euros a year earlier following the acquisition of British Energy.

"The sums are simple. For example, an EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) costs 4 billion euros whereas if we prolong the life span of our reactors from 40 years to 60 years, the cost is 400 million euros per plant. This is therefore the most profitable investment for the French population," Gadonneix said.

The French nuclear safety authority, ASN, said on Tuesday it had agreed in principle for EDF to continue running its oldest nuclear reactors for up to 40 years. EDF wants the life span of its reactors to go up to 60 years, arguing that this had been granted for similar reactors in the United States.

Asked whether the EPR was not a priority for EDF, Gadonneix said: "The priority is to prolong the life span of our reactors, while ensuring that future generations benefit from the EPR technology.

"This is the reason why EDF supports and finances this technology in the countries where nuclear will develop, such as in China, the UK and the United States."

EDF shares were up 1.6 percent in early afternoon trade, outperforming a 0.6 percent fall in France's benchmark CAC 40 index .FCHI.
 
Edison passa ad outlook negativo nell'inquadramento di Moody's.

La società fronteggia da un lato un indebolimento del profilo di business, dal momento che la congiuntura italiana lascia ad intendere che vi sarà un persistere della debolezza nella domanda di energia, elettricità e gas, e delle tariffe energetiche.

Circostanza che incide particolarmente su Edison, che è forte soprattutto nel comparto della generazione elettrica da centrali a gas, un business la cui profittevolezza in Italia ha subito un forte declino ad inizio anno ed avrà tempi di recupero incerti, secondo Moody's.

Contestualmente, Edison prevede nel triennio 2009 - 2011 un capex molto elevato,pari a 4,6 mld euro. Sebbene Edison abbia già precisato che di qusti, 1,6 mld euro siano "flessibili", Moody's ritiene che anche in caso di riduzione a 3 mld euro, almeno questo importo debba essere investito/speso in larga parte nello sviluppo del campo petrolifero-gasiero di Abu Qir.

Il risultato è la riduzione dei livelli di liquidità a soglie critiche per la conservazione del rating attuale, che richiede determinati livelli di copertura del debito netto e degli interessi da parte del cash generato dalla società.

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's changes outlook on Edison S.p.A.'s Baa2 to negative[/FONT]
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[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Approximately EUR1.2 billion of debt affected [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]London, 07 July 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service today changed the rating outlook for the Baa2 senior unsecured ratings of Edison S.p.A. to negative from stable. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The outlook change reflects the deterioration in the macroeconomic environment in Italy in 2009 which has led to a significant drop in demand for electricity and gas. This will reduce Edison's profitability at a time when the company's financial profile is already somewhat stretched following the USD1.4 billion acquisition of the Abu Qir concession in January 2009 and is likely to slow its financial recovery. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Electricity margins for gas-fired plant - the bulk of Edison's generation fleet - have, in particular, been squeezed and whilst there has been some recovery since early 2009, prices remain soft and the timing of a substantial recovery in both demand and prices is uncertain. Greater volumes of gas imported into Italy from 2009 onwards, at a time when demand is depressed, are also likely to reduce margins, although this will be partially mitigated in Edison's case by access to more attractively-priced gas via the Rovigo terminal. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Following the acquisition of Abu Qir, Moody's pointed out that Edison had limited flexibility at its current rating level, when also factoring the ambitious business plan announced at the time. Edison's investment plan, disclosed in December 2008, targets EUR4.6 billion of group capex for the 2009-11 period, although Edison signalled that EUR1.6 billion of this is flexible. Nonetheless, this would leave, on average, a sizeable EUR1 billion of investments per annum for this company, of which a significant proportion relates to both the acquisition and development of the fields in Abu Qir. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]In order to change the outlook back to stable, Moody's would expect the company to demonstrate that it has taken the necessary measures to recover its financial profile in the intermediate term, this is likely to include (i) the expected execution of the disposal of a stake in Abu Qir (unlikely to be before 2010) and (ii) adapting its investment plan as necessary to expected lower levels of cash flow, given difficult market conditions, in order to demonstrate that the company can recover its financial profile beyond 2009 and achieve ratios in line with those indicated for the rating: Retained Cash Flow/net debt of at least 20% and FFO interest cover of 5-6x. Moreover, failure to take the necessary actions could lead to the rating coming under further downward pressure. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's also notes that the EBITDA contribution from Abu Qir is forecast to increase significantly as from 2012, but points out as the company progressively relies on higher-risk cash flows, the parameters for its rating are likely to shift upwards. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's previous rating action for Edison S.p.A. was on 17 December 2008 when its rating was affirmed at Baa2, stable outlook following the announcement of the acquisition of the Abu Qir concession. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Edison's rating was assigned by evaluating factors believed to be relevant to the credit profile of the issuer, such as i) the business risk and competitive position of the issuer versus others within its industry or sector, ii) the capital structure and financial risk of the issuer, iii) the projected performance of the issuer over the near to intermediate term, and iv) the issuer's history of achieving a consistent operating performance and meeting budget or financial plan goals. These attributes were compared against other issuers both within and outside of Edison's core peer group and Edison's ratings are believed to be comparable to ratings assigned to other issuers of similar credit risk. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Edison S.p.A. is Italy's second largest utility. It has an installed capacity of about 12,000 MW. In the natural gas area, Edison is Italy's second largest operator with activities in every aspect of the business: from exploration to production, importation, distribution and sales. Edison's agreement with the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation grants Edison exploration, development and production rights of the Abu Qir Concession, offshore Egypt, to the north of Alexandria. In 2008, Edison had revenues of EUR11.8 billion[/FONT]
 
Sebbene sia fuori dal monitor, la segnalo lo stesso, in quanto ha bond in GBP ma anche in euro e soprattutto in quanto le utilities - anche quelle molto indebitate - possono presentare spunti di interesse.

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's reviews Scottish and Southern Energy's ratings for possible downgrade[/FONT]
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[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Approximately GBP3.2 Billion of Long-Term Debt Securities Affected [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]London, 08 July 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service today placed all the ratings of Scottish and Southern Energy plc ("SSE") and its subsidiaries on review for possible downgrade. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The rating review was prompted by Moody's concerns that, in a relatively weak operating environment, its ambitious capex plan will likely hamper SSE's ability to redress its credit metrics, which are currently weakly positioned within the current rating category. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The company had little financial flexibility following its acquisition of Airtricity in February 2008 and recorded in 2008/09 a further material increase in debt levels mostly owing to unfavorable movements in working capital and the execution of its large capital programme, thus resulting in a weak financial profile relative to existing ratings. Although Moody's expects part of the cash outflow relative to working capital movements to reverse, we note that, absent any significant improvement in market conditions, its dividend growth policy leaves little flexibility to retain cash within the business. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's review of the ratings of the SSE group will therefore focus on assessing the potential for changes in the company's environment and operations so as to restore its financial profile in the short to medium term. Failure to maintain FFO interest cover above 5.0x, FFO / net debt at least in the low-20s and RCF / net debt at least in the low- to mid-10s would likely result in a rating downgrade. Any potential downgrade is however likely to be limited to one notch. Moody's would expect to conclude its rating review in the next three months. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The following ratings were placed under review: [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- A2 issuer and senior unsecured ratings of Scottish and Southern Energy plc [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- A2 backed senior unsecured rating of Scottish and Southern Energy plc [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- P-1 short-term rating of Scottish and Southern Energy plc [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- A2 issuer and senior unsecured ratings of Southern Electric Power Distribution plc [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- A2 issuer and senior unsecured ratings of Scottish Hydro-Electric Power Distribution plc [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- A2 issuer rating of Scottish Hydro-Electric Transmission Ltd [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- A2 issuer rating of SSE Generation Ltd [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]- A3 issuer rating of SSE Energy Supply Ltd [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's last rating action on SSE was on 5 June 2008, when the agency downgraded the group's ratings following the acquisition of Airtricity Holdings Limited for an enterprise value of EUR1.455 billion. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]SSE's ratings were assigned by evaluating factors believed to be relevant to the credit profile of the issuer such as i) the business risk and competitive position of the issuer versus others within its industry or sector, ii) the capital structure and financial risk of the issuer, iii) the projected performance of the issuer over the near to intermediate term, and iv) the issuer's history of achieving consistent operating performance and meeting budget or financial plan goals. These attributes were compared against other issuers both within and outside of SSE's core peer group and SSE's ratings are believed to be comparable to ratings assigned to other issuers of similar credit risk. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Scottish and Southern Energy plc ("SSE") is a UK-listed holding company and one of the largest energy groups in the UK. SSE owns operating subsidiaries with activities in the generation, transmission, distribution and supply of electricity; energy trading; the storage, distribution and supply of gas; electrical and utility contracting; and telecoms. For the year ending 31 March 2009, the group reported consolidated revenues of about GBP25.4 billion[/FONT]
 
Monitor bond Utilities (gruppo di lavoro: Alobar, I98mark).

AVVERTENZE

Si aggrava la situazione della liquidità sui mercati retail tedeschi, complici probabilmente le ferie ed il week end incombente ... fatto sta che diventa faticosissimo aggiornare il monitor essendo necessario rilevare a mano il 90% dei prezzi sui mercati professionali.

In aggiunta a tutto il resto del lavoro da fare, finiscono per volerci 3 ore e mezzo o 4 per aggiornare un monitor con oltre 70 bond. Di qui l'aggiornamento ogni 2-3 settimane: sinceramente si fa grande fatica ed il tempo spesso materialmente non c'è.

Resta buona la liquidità sui mercati professionali.

Vanno confermati i ringraziamenti a Massimo S. che rende disponibili, per i bond illiquidi, i prezzi realizzati sui mercati professionali: fra i prezzi in tabella, sono di fonte ICMA quelli dei seguenti titoli (i prezzi sono quelli di venerdì scorso).

EDF tutti tranne la 12/2010 e la 2018; E.On 2017; Vattenfall 2011 e perpetual; EWE 2014; National Grid tutti; Veolia 2012, 2013, 2016, 2018; Gruppo Suez Tutti tranne 2018 e 2023; International Endesa 2013; Iberdrola Tutti; Nederlandese Gasunie 2016; Hera 2016; Dong 2011 e perpetual; Fortum tutti;

Per i bond EDF 2018; EnBW 2016 e 2025; RWE 2033; Vattenfall 2018 e 2024; Veolia 2022 e 2033; Gruppo Suez 2018 e 2023; Nederlandese Gasunie 2021 si è reso necessario riprendere il prezzo Bloomberg (BBML) (i prezzi sono sempre quelli della chiusura di venerdì).

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Il periodo monitorato

Ancora tre settimane, ed ancora nulla di nuovo da segnalare: i bond del comparto sono sicuri, le attese dinamiche inflazionistiche non si sono manifestate, i prezzi continuano a salire sostanzialmente su tutte le scadenze.

Tre settimane fa avevo scritto:

"Inutile dire che un movimento di questo tipo ben si abbina ad un possibile andamento ribassista delle borse, ma esso convive anche con un ulteriore rilassamento del flight to quality all'interno del comparto.

Infatti gli emittenti più deboli (in termini di rating e/o di rischio percepito fra quelli monitorati) sono anche quelli i cui bond lunghi traggono maggiore vantaggio da questo ritorno di attenzione nei loro confronti. E' il caso, in particolare, di Veolia, ma anche di Dong, di Fortum, di National Gas."

Ad oggi, la situazione rimane questa.

Tovate il file allegato qui oltre che, come sempre, sul sito ventimaggio gestito da Maino ...

http://digilander.libero.it/ventimaggio/Finanza/Pagina dei files.html

La tabella dei prezzi, divisa in tre parti. Parte prima:
 

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Tabella e grafici monitoraggio rendimenti

La tabella parte prima...
 

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Il primo grafico... i rendimenti dei bond corti sono a livelli minimi ed io non sono in grado di modificare l'ampiezza del grafico... controllateli semmai nelle tabelle...
 

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Il secondo grafico. Per i bond corti, vale l'avvertenza già formulata...
 

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