Una operazione che abbiamo seguito poco qui è quella della acquisizione di Gas Natural da parte di Union Fenosa, a costituire quella che, per dimensioni, dovrebbe essere la quarta utility energetica spagnola.
A seguito del merger, S&P ha downgradato il rating di Gas Natural a BBB+ e tiene i rating in creditwatch fino a completamento dell'operazione, che ha ricevuto recentemente il via libera dall'authority energetica spagnola.
Il problema appare essere quello del debito e di scadenze importanti da rifinanziare nel biennio 2010-2011, sebbene le due società abbiano dichiarato che intendono dimezzare il capex complessivo delle due società nel periodo 2009-2012 portandolo a 8-9 mld euro e focalizzare sul deleverage dell'entità risultante dalla fusione.
Una eventuale ulteriore riduzione del rating, verosimilmente limitata ad 1 notch, dipenderà dalla struttura finanziaria finale e dalle strategie che verranno adottate in vista del contenimento del debito, del rifinanziamento delle scadenze prossime e del mantenimento di livelli di liquidità adeguati al servizio del debito.
Indico anche i bond delle due società, il secondo dei quali potrebbe forse offrire una opportunità moderatamente speculativa di investimento nel breve termine, se preso sotto la pari...
5% Union Fenosa Finance 2010
http://anleihen.onvista.de/snapshot.html?ID_INSTRUMENT=9232234
6,125% Gas Natural finance 2010
http://anleihen.onvista.de/snapshot.html?ID_INSTRUMENT=369061http://anleihen.onvista.de/snapshot.html?ID_INSTRUMENT=369061
Spanish Utility Gas Natural Downgraded To 'BBB+/A-2' On Proposed Buyout Of Union Fenosa; Still On CreditWatch Negative
MILAN (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 20, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it has lowered its long- and short-term corporate credit ratings on Spanish utility Gas Natural SDG, S.A. to 'BBB+/A-2' from 'A/A-1' following Spain's national competition authority's approval, with conditions, of the group's acquisition of Spanish utility Union Fenosa S.A.
The ratings, which were placed on CreditWatch with negative implications on Aug. 1, 2008, on news of the acquisition, will remain on CreditWatch until completion of the transaction and our subsequent analysis of the enlarged group's credit profile.
"The downgrade reflects our expectation that the acquisition--which now seems highly likely to go ahead--will weaken Gas Natural's credit profile to levels no longer compatible with an 'A' category long-term rating," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Monica Mariani.
We believe that the acquisition will materially weaken Gas Natural's financial profile, due to the size of the bid, the consolidation of Union Fenosa's debt, increasing refinancing risk, and execution risk pertaining to asset disposals.
Businesswise, Gas Natural will double its size, and the transaction will
likely have a moderately credit-dilutive effect on the group's business risk
due to Union Fenosa's comparatively higher business risk and the integration risks typical of large merger and acquisition deals.
We believe that liquidity is currently adequate, but significant refinancing needs loom ahead in 2010 and 2011.
The group has announced, however, that it intends to approximately halve its combined capital expenditures between 2009 and 2012 to €8 billion-€9 billion and focus on deleveraging. We therefore expect the enlarged group to be cash flow positive in the near term.
On Dec. 31, 2008, Union Fenosa reported €1.4 billion of debt maturing by year-end 2009 and had available undrawn committed credit lines and cash of about €1.65 billion.
We will resolve the CreditWatch status based on the outcome of the
completed transaction and our analysis of the enlarged group's credit profile.
"Our analysis will focus on the final acquisition disbursement, as well
as on the combined group's new business strategy and financial policies,
structure, and forecasts," said Ms. Mariani.
At this stage, we anticipate that a further downgrade, if any, would likely be limited to one notch.
We could affirm the ratings at their current level if we have sufficient reason to believe that the group will reach funds from operations coverage of adjusted debt of about 17%-18% by 2010 and then maintain this level, as well as significantly reduce its refinancing risk in both 2010 and 2011.