Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Utilities Europa I (gennaio - luglio 2009) (9 lettori)

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Imark

Forumer storico
Monitor bond Utilities (gruppo di lavoro: Alobar, I98mark).

AVVERTENZE

Liquidità anche qui in temporanea stabilizzazione sui livelli visti nelle scorse settimane, molto inferiori alla fase pre contrazione della liquidità sui mercati finanziari (terminata oramai nell'autunno del 2007) ma molto migliore di quanto si è visto nelle settimane successive al big bang di Lehman.

Per i bond illiquidi, i corsi sono reperiti da Massimo S. e provengono dai mercati professionali. I corsi esposti in tabella sono di fonte ICMA, e risalgono alla chiusura di oggi, per i seguenti titoli.

EDF 10/2010, 2014, 2016, 2020; EnBW 2025; RWE 2033; Vattenfall 2011, perpetual e 2018; National Grid 02/2013 e 2018; Veolia 2012 e 2033; Suez Belgelec 2010; Gie Suez 2012; GDF Suez 2013; Suez Belgelec 2015; International Endesa 2013; Iberdrola 02/2013, 2015 e 2018; Nederlandese Gasunie 2016; Hera 2016; Fortum 2010 e 2013.


Per il bond Vattenfall 2024 e Nederlandese Gasunie 2021;si è reso necessario riprendere il prezzo Bloomberg (BBML) della chiusura di ieri.

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Il periodo monitorato

Poco da dire. Lateralizzazione dei corsi. Mercato senza particolari spunti direzionali.

Qualche ulteriore recupero nei prezzi di bond di utilities francesi (Veolia, GDF Suez).

Tovate il file allegato qui oltre che, come sempre, sul sito ventimaggio gestito da Maino ...

http://digilander.libero.it/ventimaggio/Finanza/Pagina dei files.html

La tabella dei prezzi, divisa in tre parti:


Utilitibond1.GIF
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Il file per chi volesse farne uso, rammentando che sarà presto disponibile anche sul Ventimaggio di Maino per chi preferisse uno scarico contestuale dei file... :)
 

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  • Bond_Utilities_Europa_27022009aggiornato.xls
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Imark

Forumer storico
Vattenfall Makes EU8.5 Billion Offer for Nuon Unit (Update1)



By Fred Pals
Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Vattenfall AB, Sweden’s largest utility, made an all-cash offer of 8.5 billion euros ($10.9 billion) for 100 percent of Nuon NV’s production and supply unit.
Vattenfall will acquire 49 percent initially and the rest in the coming six years on fixed terms, the Stockholm-based company said today in a statement. The transaction excludes Nuon’s grid operations. After 2008 dividends, the cost will be 10.3 billion euros, the companies said.
“Our partnership will boost Nuon’s investment program for new, cleaner production and innovative energy technologies for our customers,” Nuon Chief Executive Officer Oystein Loseth said in the statement.
Nuon, based in Amsterdam, is the second Dutch utility to sell part of its production and supply business after RWE AG last month agreed to buy Arnhem-based Essent NV for 9.3 billion euros. That deal excludes Essent’s distribution networks and waste- management unit.
The four biggest Dutch utilities are required by law to separate their production, trading and sales units from grid operations by Jan. 1, 2011. The unbundling is aimed at promoting competition and encouraging grid investment.
European utilities have bucked a trend for fewer mergers and acquisitions as changes in European Union law provide incentives for combining. Cost-cutting, diversification and declining stocks have made targets cheaper. The pace of mergers and takeovers fell 39 percent to $2.48 trillion last year as a credit squeeze hampered financing, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Expanding into the Dutch energy market has been a top priority for Vattenfall Chief Executive Officer Lars Josefsson since 2005 when the utility bought power plants in Denmark as the company targets northwest Europe for growth.
The U.K., Europe’s third biggest power consumer, is also a priority market for Vattenfall and it bought wind energy assets there in the second half of last year, and plans to participate in the country’s new nuclear program.
Nuon said last year it was looking for a foreign partner to complement its production and supply business. That followed the failure of merger talks with Essent.
Nuon, which has about 10,000 employees, said Feb. 16 that fourth-quarter profit fell 62 percent as production declined and operating expenses increased. Net income fell to 79 million euros from 210 million euros a year earlier. Sales dropped to 1.62 billion euros from 1.78 billion euros.
Editors: Jonas Bergman, Guy Collins
To contact the reporter on this story: Fred Pals in Amsterdam on [email protected]
Last Updated: February 23, 2009 05:24 EST

Le politiche di scorporo delle reti di trasmissione determinate dalle Autority nazionali di garanzia del settore (come nel caso olandese di recente) si confermano nella prospettiva delle agenzie di rating quali fattori di indebolimento del rating delle utility forzate a scorporare le attività di generazione e di fornitura energetica da quelle distributive, sulle quali beneficiano di una rendita di posizione.

Tant'è che l'olandese Nuon, che riceve un'offerta di acquisto da Vattenfall dopo che RWE ha rilevato la concorrente Essent, resta tuttavia in creditwatch negative in attesa soprattutto di verificare con quali modalità e costi l'unbundling verrà effettivamente realizzato.

Pur essendo i bond di Nuon fuori dal monitor, interessanti le notizie sull'andamento dell'attività sul versante del risultato operativo, della capacità di generazione di cassa, dell'indebitamento.

Potrebbe valere la pena di dare un'occhiata ai prezzi...

NUON 'A+/A-1' Ratings Still On Watch Negative On Vattenfall's €8.5 Billion Bid For Its Generation And Supply Operations

LONDON (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 25, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that its 'A+/A-1' long- and short-term corporate credit ratings on Dutch energy utility N.V. NUON remain on CreditWatch with negative implications following the bid by Sweden-based utility Vattenfall AB (A-/Stable/A-2) for its unregulated generation and supply businesses for an enterprise value of €8.5 billion.

For further details on the bid proposal, please refer to the article
titled "Vattenfall 'A-/A-2' Ratings Affirmed After €8.5 Billion Bid For NUON's
Generation And Supply Businesses; Outlook Stable," published today on
RatingsDirect.

The ratings on NUON were originally placed on CreditWatch on July 18, 2008--alongside those on fellow Dutch utilities Delta N.V. (A-/Watch Neg/--), ENECO Holding N.V. (A/Watch Neg/A-1), and Essent N.V. (A+/Watch Neg/A-1)--to reflect the risks linked to the forced ownership unbundling of regulated distribution operations from unregulated businesses by Dec. 31, 2010, at the latest.

"The ultimate ownership unbundling, whereby NUON's generation and supply businesses will effectively be spun off from its existing corporate structure, is likely to have negative consequences for the company's credit quality, which reflects the company's vertically integrated business model and its currently very strong financial profile," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Karin Erlander.

The ratings on NUON reflect its strong market position as one of The
Netherlands' major utilities, its robust financial profile, and its stable
distribution operations, which generate about 50% of group cash flows. These strengths are offset by some competition in the fully liberalized Dutch retail market, a relatively challenging electricity consumer profile (which includes a significant proportion of price-sensitive industrial consumers), and risks stemming from the forced unbundling.

NUON's operating performance has been solid over the past few years, and revenues continued to improve through 2008. However, volatile commodity prices and higher operating expenses in the second half of 2008 resulted in reported operating profit declining to €765 million from €1.11 billion in 2007. Funds from operations decreased in 2008 due to lower operating income, and large capital expenditures reduced reported free operating cash flow to €219 million, from €767 million in 2007.

NUON's debt position remains strong, with reported net debt of €642 million in 2008 (net cash position of €293 million in 2007).

We will review the CreditWatch placement in the coming months and will
essentially focus on:

Whether Vattenfall's bid for the unregulated generation and supply operations of NUON is successful.

The financial policy of the regulated businesses. The regulator is considering putting in place minimum credit metrics for the regulated businesses.

We will meet with the regulator to gain a better understanding of how these metrics might affect the financial risk profiles of the regulated businesses.

The allocation of debt between the unregulated and regulated businesses.
The consequences of unbundling for NUON's cross-border lease exposure.

Any one-time costs and/or liabilities resulting from the unbundling.
 

Imark

Forumer storico
La stessa acquisizione di Nuon da parte di Vattenfall, valutata da S&P nella prospettiva degli svedesi offerenti. Rating e outlook di Vattenfall non sono intaccati dall'offerta cash per 8.5 mld euro anche per le modalità con cui verrà attuato l'accordo ove andasse in porto.

Vattenfall acquista infatti subito il 49% delle azioni del business non regolato di Nuon, acquisendone il controllo, ed il restante 51% nei 6 anni successivi, a condizioni già definite.

In sostanza le dimensioni dell'operazione e le modalità con cui essa è condotta non hanno un'incidenza tale sul profilo di business né su quello finanziario di Vattenfall al punto da determinare modifiche in una direzione o nell'altra.

Interessanti le considerazioni sugli sviluppi recenti dell'attività di Vattenfall, con la previsione da parte di S&P di nuove esigenze di funding per gli svedesi nel breve-medio termine. Vedremo se sarà soddisfatto per tramite di obbligazioni di nuova emissione o altrimenti.

Vattenfall 'A-/A-2' Ratings Affirmed After €8.5 Billion Bid For NUON's Generation And Supply Businesses; Outlook Stable

LONDON (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 25, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it affirmed its 'A-' long-term and 'A-2' ratings on
Sweden-based utility Vattenfall AB following its bid for the unregulated
generation and supply operations of Dutch utility N.V. NUON (A+/Watch Neg/A-1) for an enterprise value of €8.5 billion. The outlook is stable.

Vattenfall will initially acquire 49% of the shares in NUON's generation
and supply (G&S) businesses and obtain operational and strategic control. The remaining 51% of shares will be acquired in the coming six years under fixed terms. We understand that Vattenfall intends to fully consolidate the G&S businesses retroactively as of Jan. 1, 2009.

"We expect Vattenfall's business risk profile to remain largely unchanged following the proposed acquisition," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Karin Erlander.

The deal would provide Vattenfall with some diversification benefits by
establishing Benelux (Belgium, The Netherlands, and Luxembourg) as a new core market within the group. Furthermore, it would render Vattenfall a meaningful position in Continental gas trading and provide opportunities for improved portfolio optimization. These positive rating factors would partly be offset by Vattenfall's increased exposure to upstream gas production (albeit on a limited scale) and the execution and integration risks related to the acquisition.

"We view the debt-financed acquisition as negative for Vattenfall's
financial risk profile, although this is partly offset by its planned
divestment of noncore assets before year-end 2009," said Ms. Erlander.

Furthermore, the deferred payments of acquisition proceeds will help to
moderate the impact on the company's near-term funding needs.

We expect Vattenfall to post significant negative free operating cash flow over the near term following its ambitious capital expenditure plan, which in combination with the debt funding of the NUON acquisition is expected to create significant near- to medium-term funding needs.

However, we expect Vattenfall to proactively manage its upcoming funding and liquidity requirements to keep refinancing and funding risks within a level commensurate with the 'A-' rating category.

Incorporating the proposed acquisition of NUON's G&S operations, we expect Vattenfall's debt protection ratios of funds from operations (FFO) to debt and FFO interest coverage to remain above 20% and 4.5x, respectively, over the medium term, with the lowest point in 2009.

We adjust these ratios by adding to Vattenfall's debt the present value of
remaining payments of acquisition proceeds.

Vattenfall's earnings for full-year 2008 benefited from a continued good
performance in its Nordic generation business, mainly based on higher achieved prices.

Meanwhile, earnings in the company's Central European operations
weakened compared with the previous year due to the higher cost of carbon dioxide allowances, reduced availability of coal-fired plants, and continued standstill at two of the company's German nuclear power plants.

The sharp drop in electricity prices in the fourth quarter has had a limited effect on Vattenfall's earnings due to hedging arrangements in place, but any sustained weakness in power prices would negatively affect its earnings.

We expect that Vattenfall's business and financial risk profiles will
remain in line with the 'A-' rating category following the proposed
acquisition of NUON's G&S businesses.

Any material negative changes to terms and conditions related to the
proposed acquisition from those incorporated into the current ratings could put pressure on the ratings, as could any additional large debt-financed acquisition or further expansion of Vattenfall's already significant
investment program. The ratings could also come under pressure from any
prolonged deterioration of power prices resulting in weaker-than-expected medium-term earnings performance.

An upgrade does not appear likely over the medium term as Vattenfall's
headroom under the 'A-' rating would be exhausted if the acquisition of NUON's G&S operations materializes as expected.
 
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