Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Utilities Europa I (gennaio - luglio 2009)
- Creatore Discussione Alobar
- Data di Inizio
-
- Tags
- monitor utilities
- Stato
Imark
Forumer storico
Centrica in realtà aveva emesso anche un recente bond in euro. Si tratta della principale utility in UK, anche se noi la consideriamo pochino in quanto, ad oggi, non a monitor.
Vale a conoscerla meglio questa, in particolare nella sua attuazione di una strategia di integrazione in verticale del ciclo produttivo, questa rating action di Moody's.
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's affirms Centrica's A3 rating; stable outlook[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Approximately GBP3.8 billion of Long-Term Debt Affected [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]London, 11 May 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today affirmed the A3 / P-2 ratings of Centrica plc with a stable outlook following the announcement that it will acquire for a total consideration of GBP2.3 billion a 20% interest in Lake Acquisitions Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Electricité de France ("EDF", rated Aa3 with stable outlook) that owns the entire issued share capital of British Energy Group ("BE"), the UK nuclear operator. The transaction remains conditional upon regulatory and shareholder approvals. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The rating affirmation reflects the strategic rationale behind this transaction, as it will increase Centrica's vertical integration and in turn strengthen its business risk profile. A 20% interest in Lake Acquisitions Ltd will give Centrica the right to offtake in excess of 20% of the uncontracted output of BE, whilst profits of Lake Acquisitions Ltd will be distributed to EDF and Centrica in proportion to their equity interests.[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's notes that exposure (through the profits of Lake Acquisitions Ltd) and access (through the proposed offtake agreement) to BE's non-gas fired power generation capacity will allow Centrica to (i) hedge a greater proportion (up to 85%) of its physical retail power position, thus aligning it closer to that of its competitors; and (ii) diversify its fuel mix by moving away from its currently gas-biased power generation portfolio.[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Furthermore, the ability to participate in new nuclear build through a joint-venture with EDF will, in Moody's view, provide Centrica with extra optionality to secure future energy supplies, although such an involvement could lead to added pressures on its financial profile. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's has also considered that the acquisition is conservatively funded as it will be partly financed by the sale to EDF of Centrica's 51% interest in SPE, Belgium's second largest generator, for GBP1.2 billion. The remaining part (approximately GBP1.1 billion) will be financed through the proceeds of the GBP2.2 billion rights issue that Centrica carried out in November 2008 to pre-fund its vertical integration strategy, thus leaving some headroom to potentially take advantage of further upstream opportunities. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's notes that a potential cash offer for 100% of the share capital of Venture Production plc, a North Sea oil and gas producer, would further reduce its financial flexibility. However, the stable outlook is based on Moody's expectation that Centrica will continue to demonstrate solid financial metrics, maintaining its ratio of retained cash flow to net debt in the mid-twenties or higher. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's last rating action on Centrica was on 21 June 2006, when the rating agency downgraded the company's ratings from A2 / P-1 to A3 / P-2 with stable outlook due to a perceived deterioration in the company's operating environment. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Centrica's ratings were assigned by evaluating factors believed to be relevant to the credit profile of the issuer such as i) the business risk and competitive position of the issuer versus others within its industry or sector, ii) the capital structure and financial risk of the issuer, iii) the projected performance of the issuer over the near to intermediate term, and iv) the issuer's history of achieving consistent operating performance and meeting budget or financial plan goals. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]These attributes were compared against other issuers both within and outside of Centrica's core peer group and Centrica's ratings are believed to be comparable to ratings assigned to other issuers of similar credit risk. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Centrica plc, headquartered in Windsor, England, is the leading supplier of energy and related services to domestic, commercial and industrial customers in the UK, mostly under the "British Gas" brand. Centrica is also involved in gas upstream, storage and electricity generation activities, and is an energy supplier in North America. In 2008, Centrica reported revenues of GBP21.3 billion[/FONT]
Vale a conoscerla meglio questa, in particolare nella sua attuazione di una strategia di integrazione in verticale del ciclo produttivo, questa rating action di Moody's.
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's affirms Centrica's A3 rating; stable outlook[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]London, 11 May 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today affirmed the A3 / P-2 ratings of Centrica plc with a stable outlook following the announcement that it will acquire for a total consideration of GBP2.3 billion a 20% interest in Lake Acquisitions Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Electricité de France ("EDF", rated Aa3 with stable outlook) that owns the entire issued share capital of British Energy Group ("BE"), the UK nuclear operator. The transaction remains conditional upon regulatory and shareholder approvals. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The rating affirmation reflects the strategic rationale behind this transaction, as it will increase Centrica's vertical integration and in turn strengthen its business risk profile. A 20% interest in Lake Acquisitions Ltd will give Centrica the right to offtake in excess of 20% of the uncontracted output of BE, whilst profits of Lake Acquisitions Ltd will be distributed to EDF and Centrica in proportion to their equity interests.[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's notes that exposure (through the profits of Lake Acquisitions Ltd) and access (through the proposed offtake agreement) to BE's non-gas fired power generation capacity will allow Centrica to (i) hedge a greater proportion (up to 85%) of its physical retail power position, thus aligning it closer to that of its competitors; and (ii) diversify its fuel mix by moving away from its currently gas-biased power generation portfolio.[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Furthermore, the ability to participate in new nuclear build through a joint-venture with EDF will, in Moody's view, provide Centrica with extra optionality to secure future energy supplies, although such an involvement could lead to added pressures on its financial profile. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's has also considered that the acquisition is conservatively funded as it will be partly financed by the sale to EDF of Centrica's 51% interest in SPE, Belgium's second largest generator, for GBP1.2 billion. The remaining part (approximately GBP1.1 billion) will be financed through the proceeds of the GBP2.2 billion rights issue that Centrica carried out in November 2008 to pre-fund its vertical integration strategy, thus leaving some headroom to potentially take advantage of further upstream opportunities. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's notes that a potential cash offer for 100% of the share capital of Venture Production plc, a North Sea oil and gas producer, would further reduce its financial flexibility. However, the stable outlook is based on Moody's expectation that Centrica will continue to demonstrate solid financial metrics, maintaining its ratio of retained cash flow to net debt in the mid-twenties or higher. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's last rating action on Centrica was on 21 June 2006, when the rating agency downgraded the company's ratings from A2 / P-1 to A3 / P-2 with stable outlook due to a perceived deterioration in the company's operating environment. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Centrica's ratings were assigned by evaluating factors believed to be relevant to the credit profile of the issuer such as i) the business risk and competitive position of the issuer versus others within its industry or sector, ii) the capital structure and financial risk of the issuer, iii) the projected performance of the issuer over the near to intermediate term, and iv) the issuer's history of achieving consistent operating performance and meeting budget or financial plan goals. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]These attributes were compared against other issuers both within and outside of Centrica's core peer group and Centrica's ratings are believed to be comparable to ratings assigned to other issuers of similar credit risk. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Centrica plc, headquartered in Windsor, England, is the leading supplier of energy and related services to domestic, commercial and industrial customers in the UK, mostly under the "British Gas" brand. Centrica is also involved in gas upstream, storage and electricity generation activities, and is an energy supplier in North America. In 2008, Centrica reported revenues of GBP21.3 billion[/FONT]
Imark
Forumer storico
Arrivano i conti di National Grid, con un EBIT in crescita del 12% y-o-y ed il fatturato del 37% y-o-y grazie all'apporto delle società acquisite ed un utile netto in forte calo (70% su base annua) per effetto del peso dei costi di acquisizione dell'americana KeySpan Corp.
La società ha comunicato di aver provveduto a raccogliere 1,9 mld GBP per far fronte a scadenze debitorie per 2,5 mld GBP in scadenza nel biennio 2009-2010. La crescita dei livelli di indebitamento resta il maggiore problema di Nat grid, gestore in UK ed in USA di reti distributive di gas ed elettricità, sebbene sostenuto da un business molto profittevole. Il debito netto è difatti salito a 22,7 mld GDP contro i 17,6 di un anno prima.
MAY 14, 2009, 5:23 A.M. ET
2nd UPDATE:Nat Grid FY EBIT +12% On Strong Transmission, Gas
(Adds detail, updates share price.)
By Selina Williams Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES LONDON (Dow Jones)--National Grid PLC (NGG) Thursday posted a 12% rise in full-year earnings before interest and taxes, excluding U.S. stranded costs, due largely to strong performance in transmission and gas distribution and said outlook for the year was positive and in line with views.
The U.K.-based utility, which owns and operates electricity and natural gas networks in the U.K. and the U.S., said EBIT for the year ending March 31 totaled GBP2.915 billion compared with GBP2.595 billion the previous year.
"We have delivered over the year a strong financial and operational performance and we're very well positioned for another good year in 2009-2010," National Grid Chief Executive Steve Holliday said in a conference call.
The results were above analysts expectations for EBIT of GBP2.801 billion in a consensus of 15 analysts provided by the company.
"Taking account of the headwinds last year, they've actually done pretty well," said Peter Atherton, utilities analyst at Citigroup.
The recovery of U.S. stranded costs, excluded from the figures above, yielded GBP435 million in the year to March 31 versus GBP382 million the previous year.
National Grid's stranded costs are comprised mainly of previously incurred expenses in its U.S. transmission business that the regulator has allowed it to recover through its tariffs.
Net profit for the year was down 70% at GBP944 million from GBP3.19 billion the previous year on financial costs for its acquisition of U.S. KeySpan Corp.
National Grid has made synergy savings from the KeySpan acquisition of $129 million, exceeding the original $100 million target, Holliday said.
Revenue was up 37% at GBP15.62 billion compared with GBP11.42 billion in the previous year.
The company said it had made progress in meeting its expected GBP2.5 billion funding requirements in 2009-2010, having issued or agreed around GBP1.9 billion of long-term debt since Jan. 1 2009.
Last year, National Grid invested GBP3.2 billion. This year it plans to invest around GBP3.4 billion supported by current rate plans and long-term contracts. The company plans a similar level of investment each year until 2012.
Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations were 38.2 pence compared with 121.6 pence the previous year.
At 0912 GMT, National Grid shares were down 0.3% at 581 pence, in line with a steady to weaker U.K. utilities market.
National Grid shares have underperformed the market since early March on fears of a downgrade in credit ratings due to the company's net debt, which has grown to GBP22.7 billion from GBP17.6 billion.
La società ha comunicato di aver provveduto a raccogliere 1,9 mld GBP per far fronte a scadenze debitorie per 2,5 mld GBP in scadenza nel biennio 2009-2010. La crescita dei livelli di indebitamento resta il maggiore problema di Nat grid, gestore in UK ed in USA di reti distributive di gas ed elettricità, sebbene sostenuto da un business molto profittevole. Il debito netto è difatti salito a 22,7 mld GDP contro i 17,6 di un anno prima.
MAY 14, 2009, 5:23 A.M. ET
2nd UPDATE:Nat Grid FY EBIT +12% On Strong Transmission, Gas
(Adds detail, updates share price.)
By Selina Williams Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES LONDON (Dow Jones)--National Grid PLC (NGG) Thursday posted a 12% rise in full-year earnings before interest and taxes, excluding U.S. stranded costs, due largely to strong performance in transmission and gas distribution and said outlook for the year was positive and in line with views.
The U.K.-based utility, which owns and operates electricity and natural gas networks in the U.K. and the U.S., said EBIT for the year ending March 31 totaled GBP2.915 billion compared with GBP2.595 billion the previous year.
"We have delivered over the year a strong financial and operational performance and we're very well positioned for another good year in 2009-2010," National Grid Chief Executive Steve Holliday said in a conference call.
The results were above analysts expectations for EBIT of GBP2.801 billion in a consensus of 15 analysts provided by the company.
"Taking account of the headwinds last year, they've actually done pretty well," said Peter Atherton, utilities analyst at Citigroup.
The recovery of U.S. stranded costs, excluded from the figures above, yielded GBP435 million in the year to March 31 versus GBP382 million the previous year.
National Grid's stranded costs are comprised mainly of previously incurred expenses in its U.S. transmission business that the regulator has allowed it to recover through its tariffs.
Net profit for the year was down 70% at GBP944 million from GBP3.19 billion the previous year on financial costs for its acquisition of U.S. KeySpan Corp.
National Grid has made synergy savings from the KeySpan acquisition of $129 million, exceeding the original $100 million target, Holliday said.
Revenue was up 37% at GBP15.62 billion compared with GBP11.42 billion in the previous year.
The company said it had made progress in meeting its expected GBP2.5 billion funding requirements in 2009-2010, having issued or agreed around GBP1.9 billion of long-term debt since Jan. 1 2009.
Last year, National Grid invested GBP3.2 billion. This year it plans to invest around GBP3.4 billion supported by current rate plans and long-term contracts. The company plans a similar level of investment each year until 2012.
Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations were 38.2 pence compared with 121.6 pence the previous year.
At 0912 GMT, National Grid shares were down 0.3% at 581 pence, in line with a steady to weaker U.K. utilities market.
National Grid shares have underperformed the market since early March on fears of a downgrade in credit ratings due to the company's net debt, which has grown to GBP22.7 billion from GBP17.6 billion.
kingpin
Nuovo forumer
a fine maggio mi scadono 30k di Vodafone e 30k di E.ON
sono orientato a rimanere nei settori telefonici / utilities / oilgas ma in questo thread vi chiedo ovviamente un parere sui bond utilities....
come scadenza vorrei restare corto, per portarle a scadenza, e visti i bassi tassi attuali devo anche decidere se entrare subito o "parcheggiarmi" in contoconto al 3,285% netto
sono orientato a rimanere nei settori telefonici / utilities / oilgas ma in questo thread vi chiedo ovviamente un parere sui bond utilities....
come scadenza vorrei restare corto, per portarle a scadenza, e visti i bassi tassi attuali devo anche decidere se entrare subito o "parcheggiarmi" in contoconto al 3,285% netto
Imark
Forumer storico
Ciao Kingpin,
se dai un'occhiata ai rendimenti lordi, nelle tabelle un paio di pagine dietro (e magari se ti calcoli il rendimento "nettissimo" di questi bond con il file di Maino, che ti consente di ottenere il massimo di personalizzazione e di precisione possibile) ti rendi conto che nel momento attuale c'è poca convenienza a passare da un 3,285% netto con libertà di movimentare il cash quando si vuole ad un bond di una primaria utility, visto che ad es. con un bond EDF occorre prendere un 2014 per avere un rendimento paragonabile, ed in generale siamo su scadenze fra il 2013 ed il 2015.
Impegolarsi con un bond 2015 per avere uno 0,5% di rendimento in più, con il rischio che riparta l'inflazione ed i tassi e che cadano i rendimenti reali di questi bond per un periodo di tempo abbastanza prolungato è cosa che vale la pena ? Io sarei per il no...
Si può provare a "spigolare" fra le utilities minori (e forse qualcosa ancora si trova), oppure prendere un perpetual di una utility di settore (però facendosi carico, insieme con il maggiore rendimento, di una più elevata volatilità in portafoglio, oltre che dei rischi di differimento cedolare connaturati al funzionamento dei perpetual)... ma ad occhio forse non è sbagliato attendere un storno.
Altro discorso da fare sarebbe provare a dare un'occhiata al TV... qui lo seguiamo poco e le emissioni nel comparto non è che abbondino, ma OTC, ricercando con il solito OnVista, forse qualcosa si trova, sempre se si ritiene che sia il momento adatto per una scelta di questo tipo...
Imark
Forumer storico
Le utilities tedesche minori, nate da concentrazioni a livello locale, esattamente come in Italia, sono intente nello sforzo di raggiungere una massa critica maggiore attraverso fusioni ed acquisizioni, mentre sul versante opposto anche lì, come da noi, sono fonte di introiti importanti per gli enti locali che ne sono azionisti di controllo, e quindi i dividendi sono lauti.
Il risultato di queste politiche è intuibilmente quello di una pressione negativa sui rating: il debito cresce, mentre resta difficile varare politiche finanziarie conservative riducendo i dividendi agli shareholders.
Una operazione concentrativa è questa che riguarda EnBW e EWE, entrambe a monitor...
German Utility EnBW 'A-' Long-Term Rating On CreditWatch Negative Re The Announced Purchase Of A 47.89% Stake In VNG
FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) May 15, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today said it placed its 'A-' long-term corporate credit rating on German vertically integrated utility EnBW Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg AG (EnBW) on CreditWatch with negative implications. At the same time, we affirmed the 'A-2' short-term corporate credit rating on EnBW.
"The CreditWatch placement follows EnBW's announced plans to acquire a 47.89% stake in Germany-based gas transmission and wholesaler VNG Verbundnetz Gas AG from German utility EWE AG," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Ralf Etzelmuller.
The sale is still subject to certain conditions, including approval at VNG's general meeting and by the German Federal Cartel Office. In addition, the deal's completion depends on EnBW acquiring a 26% stake in EWE (A-/Watch Neg/--), which is also subject to cartel office approval. EnBW expects both transactions be approved in July.
"The CreditWatch status reflects our view that EnBW's planned debt-financed acquisition of this minority stake in VNG will weigh on the company's financial profile," said Mr. Etzelmuller. "Our opinion also factors in EnBW's limited leeway within the current ratings, prior to this announcement, given the company's substantial investment program that already includes the €2 billion proposed purchase of a stake in EWE."
Moreover, like the EWE acquisition, the VNG transaction will only provide EnBW with a minority stake, albeit a large one, and hence limited access to VNG's cash flows. That said, the VNG deal would considerably strengthen EnBW's position in gas, an area in which it is weak. VNG operates essentially in Eastern Germany and ranks among Germany's largest gas importers, storage and transmission grid operators, and wholesalers.
We will aim to resolve the CreditWatch status within the next three months. Assuming the cartel authorities approve the EWE and VNG transactions, our analysis will primarily focus on EnBW's strategy, its medium-term financial profile, its funding of the two deals, and its liquidity position. We will also take into consideration any potential mitigating measures that the company could consider to protect its financial profile
Il risultato di queste politiche è intuibilmente quello di una pressione negativa sui rating: il debito cresce, mentre resta difficile varare politiche finanziarie conservative riducendo i dividendi agli shareholders.
Una operazione concentrativa è questa che riguarda EnBW e EWE, entrambe a monitor...
German Utility EnBW 'A-' Long-Term Rating On CreditWatch Negative Re The Announced Purchase Of A 47.89% Stake In VNG
FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) May 15, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today said it placed its 'A-' long-term corporate credit rating on German vertically integrated utility EnBW Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg AG (EnBW) on CreditWatch with negative implications. At the same time, we affirmed the 'A-2' short-term corporate credit rating on EnBW.
"The CreditWatch placement follows EnBW's announced plans to acquire a 47.89% stake in Germany-based gas transmission and wholesaler VNG Verbundnetz Gas AG from German utility EWE AG," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Ralf Etzelmuller.
The sale is still subject to certain conditions, including approval at VNG's general meeting and by the German Federal Cartel Office. In addition, the deal's completion depends on EnBW acquiring a 26% stake in EWE (A-/Watch Neg/--), which is also subject to cartel office approval. EnBW expects both transactions be approved in July.
"The CreditWatch status reflects our view that EnBW's planned debt-financed acquisition of this minority stake in VNG will weigh on the company's financial profile," said Mr. Etzelmuller. "Our opinion also factors in EnBW's limited leeway within the current ratings, prior to this announcement, given the company's substantial investment program that already includes the €2 billion proposed purchase of a stake in EWE."
Moreover, like the EWE acquisition, the VNG transaction will only provide EnBW with a minority stake, albeit a large one, and hence limited access to VNG's cash flows. That said, the VNG deal would considerably strengthen EnBW's position in gas, an area in which it is weak. VNG operates essentially in Eastern Germany and ranks among Germany's largest gas importers, storage and transmission grid operators, and wholesalers.
We will aim to resolve the CreditWatch status within the next three months. Assuming the cartel authorities approve the EWE and VNG transactions, our analysis will primarily focus on EnBW's strategy, its medium-term financial profile, its funding of the two deals, and its liquidity position. We will also take into consideration any potential mitigating measures that the company could consider to protect its financial profile
Imark
Forumer storico
A propria volta, EWE intende utilizzare il cash che riceve da EnBW per rafforzare la propria posizione nel comparto della generazione elettrica in Germania, e dunque questi soldi verranno spesi, in primis per l'acquisto, già predisposto (se ne era già parlato) di una utility di Brema e poi per un ulteriore acquisto e dunque resta in creditwatch negativo in attesa di verificare se il cash in arrivo per le dismissioni annulla l'effetto degli esborsi per le nuove acquisizioni - nel qual caso il rating andrebbe confermato - oppure meno.
Germany-Based EWE AG 'A-' Ratings Remain On CreditWatch Negative Following The Announced Sale Of VNG Stake
FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) May 15, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that its 'A-' long-term corporate credit rating on Germany-based utility EWE AG remains on CreditWatch with negative implications, where it had originally been placed on April 17, 2009.
"Our decision to continue the CreditWatch status follows EWE's announced plan to sell its 47.89% stake in German gas transmission and wholesaler VNG Verbundnetz Gas AG to EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Ralf Etzelmuller.
"Although we believe the divestment would improve EWE's financial profile in the short term, we anticipate that EWE would reinvest in the medium term a large part of the expected cash proceeds in assets in line with the company's strategy over the next couple of years to improve its short position in electricity generation."
The sale is still subject to certain conditions, including approval at VNG's general meeting and by the German Federal Cartel Office. In addition, the deal's completion depends on EnBW (A-/Watch Neg/A-2) acquiring a 26% stake in EWE, which is also subject to cartel office approval.
We aim to resolve the CreditWatch status within the next three months, when we have improved visibility on EWE's consolidated financial profile and its medium-term strategy following the VNG deal, EWE's previously announced intention to buy an additional 25.9% stake in utility Stadtwerke Bremen (SWB), and a third pending transaction.
Our analysis will focus on EWE's medium-term financial profile, including SWB, EWE's final shareholding in SWB, and the use of the expected cash inflow from EnBW and the sale of the VNG stake.
We would likely affirm the 'A-' rating on EWE if its acquisition of the additional SWB shares is offset by the proceeds from the sales of EWE shares to EnBW and from the VNG deal.
Conversely, we could lower the rating if the share sales to EnBW do not go through or if EWE doesn't use the proceeds to offset the SWB acquisition
Germany-Based EWE AG 'A-' Ratings Remain On CreditWatch Negative Following The Announced Sale Of VNG Stake
"Our decision to continue the CreditWatch status follows EWE's announced plan to sell its 47.89% stake in German gas transmission and wholesaler VNG Verbundnetz Gas AG to EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Ralf Etzelmuller.
"Although we believe the divestment would improve EWE's financial profile in the short term, we anticipate that EWE would reinvest in the medium term a large part of the expected cash proceeds in assets in line with the company's strategy over the next couple of years to improve its short position in electricity generation."
The sale is still subject to certain conditions, including approval at VNG's general meeting and by the German Federal Cartel Office. In addition, the deal's completion depends on EnBW (A-/Watch Neg/A-2) acquiring a 26% stake in EWE, which is also subject to cartel office approval.
We aim to resolve the CreditWatch status within the next three months, when we have improved visibility on EWE's consolidated financial profile and its medium-term strategy following the VNG deal, EWE's previously announced intention to buy an additional 25.9% stake in utility Stadtwerke Bremen (SWB), and a third pending transaction.
Our analysis will focus on EWE's medium-term financial profile, including SWB, EWE's final shareholding in SWB, and the use of the expected cash inflow from EnBW and the sale of the VNG stake.
We would likely affirm the 'A-' rating on EWE if its acquisition of the additional SWB shares is offset by the proceeds from the sales of EWE shares to EnBW and from the VNG deal.
Conversely, we could lower the rating if the share sales to EnBW do not go through or if EWE doesn't use the proceeds to offset the SWB acquisition
Imark
Forumer storico
E Fitch riafferma il rating su National Grid e sulle società operative del gruppo. Il commento mi è parso interessante perché rifà il punto su una serie di aspetti già trattati molto tempo addietro, quali il livello del leverage (cresciuto ancora di recente), l'allocazione del debito fra società operative ed holding (che porta quale risultato una subordinazione de facto del debito allocato in capo alla holding) ed altri aspetti di interesse...
Fitch Affirms National Grid, NGG and NGET
15 May 2009 10:39 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-15 May 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed National Grid plc's (NG) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB' with a Stable Outlook, senior unsecured rating at 'BBB+' and Short-term IDR at 'F2'. Fitch has also affirmed National Grid Electricity Transmission plc's (NGET), National Grid Gas plc's (NGG), and National Grid Gas Holding plc's (NGGH) Long-term IDRs at 'A-' with Stable Outlooks, senior unsecured ratings of 'A' and Short-term IDRs of 'F2', respectively.
NG is the holding company for the National Grid group, which owns and operates regulated electricity and gas networks in the United Kingdom (NGG and NGET) and the United States. In FY08, 29% of group debt was held by NG, leading to structural subordination and a two notch differential with the 'A-' rated operating companies.
Based on preliminary results, NG's net leverage has increased to around 5.4x in FY09 from 4.8x in FY08.
Fitch notes that FY09 net leverage is slightly inflated due to exchange rate impacts that increase USD-denominated debt more than related cash flows.
Fitch expects NGET's net leverage and regulatory leverage (net debt/regulated asset value (RAV)) in FY09 to increase from FY08 levels (3.7x and 53%, respectively) and remain high for the remainder of the current price control period ending 31 March 2012, substantially removing any headroom in the company's 'A-' rating.
NGET's Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's belief that even if Ofgem disallows some of NGET's forecast capex overspend from entering RAV, the company will likely adjust other cash outflows, such as dividends, to ensure its credit metrics remain commensurate with an 'A-' credit profile.
The agency expects NGET's post-maintenance interest coverage ratio (PMICR) will remain, overall, above 2.0x to 2012.
Fitch expects NGG will maintain more headroom within its rating than NGET. NGG's net leverage and net debt/RAV should increase in FY09 compared to FY08 levels (4.2x and 56%, respectively), but decline for the next several years. PMICRs are expected to remain around 3.5x to at least FY12.
Fitch notes that NGG's transmission business has performed well, with reference to regulatory expectations of opex and capex, in the first year of its price control (FY08). NGGH, the holding company for NGG, does not currently hold any debt. If NGGH were to issue material levels of debt, it would have a negative impact on the company's rating due to structural subordination to NGG.
Fitch Affirms National Grid, NGG and NGET
15 May 2009 10:39 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-15 May 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed National Grid plc's (NG) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB' with a Stable Outlook, senior unsecured rating at 'BBB+' and Short-term IDR at 'F2'. Fitch has also affirmed National Grid Electricity Transmission plc's (NGET), National Grid Gas plc's (NGG), and National Grid Gas Holding plc's (NGGH) Long-term IDRs at 'A-' with Stable Outlooks, senior unsecured ratings of 'A' and Short-term IDRs of 'F2', respectively.
NG is the holding company for the National Grid group, which owns and operates regulated electricity and gas networks in the United Kingdom (NGG and NGET) and the United States. In FY08, 29% of group debt was held by NG, leading to structural subordination and a two notch differential with the 'A-' rated operating companies.
Based on preliminary results, NG's net leverage has increased to around 5.4x in FY09 from 4.8x in FY08.
Fitch notes that FY09 net leverage is slightly inflated due to exchange rate impacts that increase USD-denominated debt more than related cash flows.
Fitch expects NGET's net leverage and regulatory leverage (net debt/regulated asset value (RAV)) in FY09 to increase from FY08 levels (3.7x and 53%, respectively) and remain high for the remainder of the current price control period ending 31 March 2012, substantially removing any headroom in the company's 'A-' rating.
NGET's Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's belief that even if Ofgem disallows some of NGET's forecast capex overspend from entering RAV, the company will likely adjust other cash outflows, such as dividends, to ensure its credit metrics remain commensurate with an 'A-' credit profile.
The agency expects NGET's post-maintenance interest coverage ratio (PMICR) will remain, overall, above 2.0x to 2012.
Fitch expects NGG will maintain more headroom within its rating than NGET. NGG's net leverage and net debt/RAV should increase in FY09 compared to FY08 levels (4.2x and 56%, respectively), but decline for the next several years. PMICRs are expected to remain around 3.5x to at least FY12.
Fitch notes that NGG's transmission business has performed well, with reference to regulatory expectations of opex and capex, in the first year of its price control (FY08). NGGH, the holding company for NGG, does not currently hold any debt. If NGGH were to issue material levels of debt, it would have a negative impact on the company's rating due to structural subordination to NGG.
Imark
Forumer storico
Il quadro dell'andamento delle aziende tedesche in seno al comparto... in sintesi, la tesi di Fitch è che la caduta dei prezzi e della domanda di energia incideranno sui margini operativi e sulla capacità di generazione di cash flow delle utilities tedesce, ma non in misura tale da determinare nel breve termine riduzioni dei relativi rating... 
rispetto ai picchi segnati nel 2008, il prezzo dell'energia elettrica in D è calato del 40% e la domanda si è contratta su base annua del 5%.
Ciononostante, l'EBITDA delle utility tedesche nel Q1/2009 non ne ha particolarmente risentito, in quanto esse avevano venduto quasi l'intera produzioni con contratti vincolanti sui prezzi per 1 o 2 anni e con la formula del take or pay (consumo minimo garantito).
Però, intanto questa situazione espone le aziende clienti ad un accresciuto rischio di distress finanziario, e ciò si riflette automaticamente in termini di esposizione delle utility a problemi di inadempimento contrattuale dei clienti.
Inoltre, men man che questi contratti giungono a scadenza, i clienti tornano ad acquistare sul mercato libero e la rendita a favore delle utility viene meno.
Un ulteriore fattore di valutazione riguarda l'esposizione verso una utenza di tipo residenziale piuttosto che di tipo industriale: poiché é quest'ultima che ha generato il calo maggiore di domanda energetica, la minore esposizione verso una tale clientela delle utilities locali in prospettiva le penalizza in misura inferiore.
Altri porblemi potrebbero emergere dalla recente politica di internazionalizzazione condotta dalle utilities tedesce, giacché in alcuni paesi (Uk, Russia, Italia, Spagna) il calo della domanda energetica si è rivelato più marcato che in Germania. E.On è l'azienda maggiormente interessata da questo aspetto della situazione.
Fitch: Economic Slowdown Has Little Impact on German Utilities
18 May 2009 4:31 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London/Warsaw-18 May 2009: Fitch Ratings says today that the German energy utility sector remains relatively well protected against the country's current recessionary environment.
However, the impact of the downturn on earnings and cash flows varies across companies depending on factors such as the effectiveness of hedging strategies and trading activities, the degree of customer and geographical diversification, the composition of the generation mix, and the contribution of stable regulated activities to consolidated earnings.
"Due to the economic slowdown and related contraction in energy demand and prices, the operating margins and cash flow generating ability of German utilities are likely to come under some pressure, but not to the extent that it will affect ratings in the near term," says Jacek Kawalczewski, Associate Director in Fitch's Energy, Utilities and Regulation team.
"The operating performance of the main German players is supported by their well-balanced generation portfolios, diversified customer base and comprehensive hedging strategies. These factors will help the utilities to endure a more prolonged decline in energy demand, historically low spot market prices and an up-tick in bad debtors."
Despite the dramatic decrease of more than 40% in energy prices on the German Energy Exchange (EEX) since peak levels reached in mid-2008, and a 5% year-on-year demand contraction, the EBITDA performance of German utilities remained relatively strong in Q109.
E.ON AG ('A'/ Stable) reported a y-o-y adjusted EBITDA decline of 3%, compared with an increase of almost 5% for RWE AG ('A+'/Negative) and a rise of 7% for EnBW AG ('A'/Stable).
These results were partially possible due to the utilities' strategy of selling almost their entire generation output one or two years in advance through forward contracts, which have proven effective in limiting earnings volatility, especially if supported by comprehensive trading activity.
However, in the absence of an upward pricing adjustment, utilities will likely feel some pain as forward contracts reach maturity.
Fitch also believes that the increase in exposure to distressed industrial customers with whom the utilities have entered into take-or-pay forward contracts might hurt supply margins, as the energy supplies that cannot be absorbed by these customers will typically be resold at subdued spot market prices. Fitch therefore carefully assesses the quality of forward contracts and trading activities, the breakdown of customers for individual utilities and the mechanisms in place for monitoring counterparty risk.
Q109 results revealed that the three main German utilities experienced material declines in energy demand, especially in the industrial customer segment, which saw a 13% y-o-y reduction. Fitch believes that utilities whose customer base is more targeted towards households and local utilities (Stadtwerke) are relatively better positioned in the current environment as they should be less affected by negative swings in energy demand.
Fitch notes that the geographical spread of operations can materially affect performance, with E.ON AG being the most international of the German utilities A number of European energy markets have been impacted more than Germany for instance, with Q109 demand in the UK and Russia down by more than 6%, and declines of almost 8% seen in Spain and Italy.
Fitch anticipates that worsened economic conditions will encourage German utilities and their European peers to implement efficiency measures in addition to those required under the new German incentive-based regulation that is binding from January 2009. However, the binding efficiency gains are unlikely to be visible by end-2009. The agency will continue to comment on the performance of German utilities and their peers in the EMEA region in the context of the subdued demand and pricing environment.
rispetto ai picchi segnati nel 2008, il prezzo dell'energia elettrica in D è calato del 40% e la domanda si è contratta su base annua del 5%.
Ciononostante, l'EBITDA delle utility tedesche nel Q1/2009 non ne ha particolarmente risentito, in quanto esse avevano venduto quasi l'intera produzioni con contratti vincolanti sui prezzi per 1 o 2 anni e con la formula del take or pay (consumo minimo garantito).
Però, intanto questa situazione espone le aziende clienti ad un accresciuto rischio di distress finanziario, e ciò si riflette automaticamente in termini di esposizione delle utility a problemi di inadempimento contrattuale dei clienti.
Inoltre, men man che questi contratti giungono a scadenza, i clienti tornano ad acquistare sul mercato libero e la rendita a favore delle utility viene meno.
Un ulteriore fattore di valutazione riguarda l'esposizione verso una utenza di tipo residenziale piuttosto che di tipo industriale: poiché é quest'ultima che ha generato il calo maggiore di domanda energetica, la minore esposizione verso una tale clientela delle utilities locali in prospettiva le penalizza in misura inferiore.
Altri porblemi potrebbero emergere dalla recente politica di internazionalizzazione condotta dalle utilities tedesce, giacché in alcuni paesi (Uk, Russia, Italia, Spagna) il calo della domanda energetica si è rivelato più marcato che in Germania. E.On è l'azienda maggiormente interessata da questo aspetto della situazione.
Fitch: Economic Slowdown Has Little Impact on German Utilities
18 May 2009 4:31 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London/Warsaw-18 May 2009: Fitch Ratings says today that the German energy utility sector remains relatively well protected against the country's current recessionary environment.
However, the impact of the downturn on earnings and cash flows varies across companies depending on factors such as the effectiveness of hedging strategies and trading activities, the degree of customer and geographical diversification, the composition of the generation mix, and the contribution of stable regulated activities to consolidated earnings.
"Due to the economic slowdown and related contraction in energy demand and prices, the operating margins and cash flow generating ability of German utilities are likely to come under some pressure, but not to the extent that it will affect ratings in the near term," says Jacek Kawalczewski, Associate Director in Fitch's Energy, Utilities and Regulation team.
"The operating performance of the main German players is supported by their well-balanced generation portfolios, diversified customer base and comprehensive hedging strategies. These factors will help the utilities to endure a more prolonged decline in energy demand, historically low spot market prices and an up-tick in bad debtors."
Despite the dramatic decrease of more than 40% in energy prices on the German Energy Exchange (EEX) since peak levels reached in mid-2008, and a 5% year-on-year demand contraction, the EBITDA performance of German utilities remained relatively strong in Q109.
E.ON AG ('A'/ Stable) reported a y-o-y adjusted EBITDA decline of 3%, compared with an increase of almost 5% for RWE AG ('A+'/Negative) and a rise of 7% for EnBW AG ('A'/Stable).
These results were partially possible due to the utilities' strategy of selling almost their entire generation output one or two years in advance through forward contracts, which have proven effective in limiting earnings volatility, especially if supported by comprehensive trading activity.
However, in the absence of an upward pricing adjustment, utilities will likely feel some pain as forward contracts reach maturity.
Fitch also believes that the increase in exposure to distressed industrial customers with whom the utilities have entered into take-or-pay forward contracts might hurt supply margins, as the energy supplies that cannot be absorbed by these customers will typically be resold at subdued spot market prices. Fitch therefore carefully assesses the quality of forward contracts and trading activities, the breakdown of customers for individual utilities and the mechanisms in place for monitoring counterparty risk.
Q109 results revealed that the three main German utilities experienced material declines in energy demand, especially in the industrial customer segment, which saw a 13% y-o-y reduction. Fitch believes that utilities whose customer base is more targeted towards households and local utilities (Stadtwerke) are relatively better positioned in the current environment as they should be less affected by negative swings in energy demand.
Fitch notes that the geographical spread of operations can materially affect performance, with E.ON AG being the most international of the German utilities A number of European energy markets have been impacted more than Germany for instance, with Q109 demand in the UK and Russia down by more than 6%, and declines of almost 8% seen in Spain and Italy.
Fitch anticipates that worsened economic conditions will encourage German utilities and their European peers to implement efficiency measures in addition to those required under the new German incentive-based regulation that is binding from January 2009. However, the binding efficiency gains are unlikely to be visible by end-2009. The agency will continue to comment on the performance of German utilities and their peers in the EMEA region in the context of the subdued demand and pricing environment.
Imark
Forumer storico
Intanto anche Moody's ha messo sotto osservazione per una riduzione il rating di EnBW, sempre per via dell'operazione concentrativa che coinvolge anche EWE di cui si è parlato anche qualche post addietro.
Il commento, olte a riprendere i passaggi di un'operazione già commentata in precedenza, fa il punto sul profilo finanziario di EnBW, che resta caratterizzato comunque da una buona posizione di liquidità, anche scontando l'effetto negativo della duplice acquisizione pianificata.
Peraltro Moody's menziona un commitment della società a conservare un profilo finanziario solido e fa comprendere di attendersi possibili dismissioni che valgano a ridurne il leverage.
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's reviews EnBW's A2/Prime-1 ratings for downgrade[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Approximately EUR1,650 million of rated debt securities affected [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]London, 19 May 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed on review for possible downgrade the A2/Prime-1 long- and short-term senior unsecured issuer and debt ratings of Energie Baden-Württemberg AG (EnBW) and the guaranteed A2/Prime-1 senior unsecured debt ratings of EnBW's guaranteed subsidiary, EnBW International Finance BV. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]These rating actions follow the recent announcement that EnBW intends to acquire the 47.89 % shareholding of Verbundnetz Gas AG (VNG) held by EWE AG (EWE, rated A2) for an undisclosed purchase price. The proposed transaction, which has been filed with the German Federal Cartel Authority, in conjunction with EnBW's ongoing acquisition of 26% of EWE (currently the subject of a Cartel Authority review), is expected to become effective in 2010, subject to certain conditions, including approval by shareholders and the Cartel Authority. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"The review for possible downgrade reflects the negative pressure that could be exerted on EnBW's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) of 6 (equivalent to an A2 rating) as a result of a weakened financial profile if the transaction were to complete as planned, and the strategic and execution risks associated with developing what is likely to remain a minority position in the short term," explains Niel Bisset, a Senior Vice President in Moody's Infrastructure Finance Group. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's says that the investment in VNG, which is the third-largest natural gas importer and storage provider in Germany, will help expand EnBW's existing mid-stream gas portfolio in line with its ambition to develop its gas business alongside its strong regional electricity franchise. "However, while Moody's recognises the potential benefits of developing a better balanced electricity and gas business model, there remain potential challenges with regard to developing VNG in partnership as part of a strategic alliance in the absence of a controlling shareholding," says Mr. Bisset. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]At end-2008, EnBW demonstrated a solid financial profile, with a ratio of retained cash flow (RCF)/net debt in excess of 26%. The review for downgrade reflects that, in the event that the acquisitions of the 26% stake in EWE for roughly EUR2 billion (potentially in July 2009) and the stake in VNG were to complete as planned, EnBW's credit metrics would decline to levels below the guidance for the current A2 rating (which includes, for example, RCF/net debt of 19-24%). At the same time, Moody's notes EnBW's commitment to a solid financial profile and would expect management to take measures, including potential asset disposals, to reduce leverage and restore financial flexibility. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]As part of its review, Moody's will focus on EnBW's plans for developing VNG in partnership with other shareholders as part of a strategic alliance. The review will also consider EnBW's plans for reducing debt through potential asset disposals or other measures. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Finally, Moody's adds that, on the basis of the 45.01% stake held by OEW (Zweckverband Oberschwäbische Elektrizitätswerke), EnBW is considered a Government Related Issuer (GRI), and that the rating review will also consider the extent to which its assumptions of support (currently low) and dependence (medium) remain appropriate. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The previous rating action on EnBW was implemented on 17 October 2005, when Moody's upgraded to A2 from A3 the issuer rating and senior unsecured debt ratings of EnBW and EnBW International Finance B.V. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Headquartered in Karlsruhe, Germany, EnBW AG is the third-largest energy company in Germany, with a leading market position in the south-western state of Baden-Württemberg. In 2008, it reported group revenues of EUR16.3 billion and EBITDA of EUR2.5 billion[/FONT]
Il commento, olte a riprendere i passaggi di un'operazione già commentata in precedenza, fa il punto sul profilo finanziario di EnBW, che resta caratterizzato comunque da una buona posizione di liquidità, anche scontando l'effetto negativo della duplice acquisizione pianificata.
Peraltro Moody's menziona un commitment della società a conservare un profilo finanziario solido e fa comprendere di attendersi possibili dismissioni che valgano a ridurne il leverage.
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's reviews EnBW's A2/Prime-1 ratings for downgrade[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]London, 19 May 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed on review for possible downgrade the A2/Prime-1 long- and short-term senior unsecured issuer and debt ratings of Energie Baden-Württemberg AG (EnBW) and the guaranteed A2/Prime-1 senior unsecured debt ratings of EnBW's guaranteed subsidiary, EnBW International Finance BV. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]These rating actions follow the recent announcement that EnBW intends to acquire the 47.89 % shareholding of Verbundnetz Gas AG (VNG) held by EWE AG (EWE, rated A2) for an undisclosed purchase price. The proposed transaction, which has been filed with the German Federal Cartel Authority, in conjunction with EnBW's ongoing acquisition of 26% of EWE (currently the subject of a Cartel Authority review), is expected to become effective in 2010, subject to certain conditions, including approval by shareholders and the Cartel Authority. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"The review for possible downgrade reflects the negative pressure that could be exerted on EnBW's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) of 6 (equivalent to an A2 rating) as a result of a weakened financial profile if the transaction were to complete as planned, and the strategic and execution risks associated with developing what is likely to remain a minority position in the short term," explains Niel Bisset, a Senior Vice President in Moody's Infrastructure Finance Group. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's says that the investment in VNG, which is the third-largest natural gas importer and storage provider in Germany, will help expand EnBW's existing mid-stream gas portfolio in line with its ambition to develop its gas business alongside its strong regional electricity franchise. "However, while Moody's recognises the potential benefits of developing a better balanced electricity and gas business model, there remain potential challenges with regard to developing VNG in partnership as part of a strategic alliance in the absence of a controlling shareholding," says Mr. Bisset. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]At end-2008, EnBW demonstrated a solid financial profile, with a ratio of retained cash flow (RCF)/net debt in excess of 26%. The review for downgrade reflects that, in the event that the acquisitions of the 26% stake in EWE for roughly EUR2 billion (potentially in July 2009) and the stake in VNG were to complete as planned, EnBW's credit metrics would decline to levels below the guidance for the current A2 rating (which includes, for example, RCF/net debt of 19-24%). At the same time, Moody's notes EnBW's commitment to a solid financial profile and would expect management to take measures, including potential asset disposals, to reduce leverage and restore financial flexibility. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]As part of its review, Moody's will focus on EnBW's plans for developing VNG in partnership with other shareholders as part of a strategic alliance. The review will also consider EnBW's plans for reducing debt through potential asset disposals or other measures. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Finally, Moody's adds that, on the basis of the 45.01% stake held by OEW (Zweckverband Oberschwäbische Elektrizitätswerke), EnBW is considered a Government Related Issuer (GRI), and that the rating review will also consider the extent to which its assumptions of support (currently low) and dependence (medium) remain appropriate. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The previous rating action on EnBW was implemented on 17 October 2005, when Moody's upgraded to A2 from A3 the issuer rating and senior unsecured debt ratings of EnBW and EnBW International Finance B.V. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Headquartered in Karlsruhe, Germany, EnBW AG is the third-largest energy company in Germany, with a leading market position in the south-western state of Baden-Württemberg. In 2008, it reported group revenues of EUR16.3 billion and EBITDA of EUR2.5 billion[/FONT]
- Stato