Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Utilities Europa I (gennaio - luglio 2009)

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Hera è messa sotto osservazione da Moody's per un calo del rating. Il programma di sviluppo 2009-2011 prevede un capex consistente insieme all'erogazione di dividendi generosi, con il risultato di determinare un indebolimento della metrica finanziaria dell'emittente in termini di copertura del debito e degli interessi sul debito mediante la liquidità generata al netto delle uscite previste.

Il che porta ad una probabile riduzione del rating, essendo quello attuale non più compatibile con il profilo di solidità finanziaria risultante dai programmi varati da Hera.

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's reviews Hera's A1 rating for possible downgrade[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]EUR500 million of rated debt affected [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]London, 20 May 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed on review for possible downgrade the A1 long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings of Hera SpA ("Hera"). The rating action reflects Moody's expectation that the company's investment programme for 2009-11, in conjunction with relatively high projected dividend payments, will likely result in a credit profile inconsistent with the current A1 rating.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Hera's investment plan for 2009-11 includes more than EUR1 billion of capex, of which approximately 43% is related to development initiatives and 57% to maintenance. The bulk of projected expenditures are concentrated on the waste segment (28%), where Hera aims to complete waste-to-energy ("WTE") projects under development and expand the special waste business segment, and water activities (35%), with capex aimed at optimising sourcing and expanding the network. As part of its plan, Hera also intends to strengthen its energy activities, with the strategic objective of increasing upstream integration, enlarging its customer base and expanding its district heating network.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Whilst Hera has indicated that funding of the investment programme for 2009-11 is expected to be fully covered by internally generated operating cash flows, Moody's expects that the combination of the planned capex and the relatively high projected dividend payments will likely result in a financial profile largely inconsistent with the current A1 rating. Moody's had previously indicated that it would expect Hera to exhibit ratios of FFO/Net Debt broadly within a range of low 20s-30%, RCF/Net Debt in the range of 18-25% and FFO Interest Cover of around 5-8x, in order to support the current A1 rating. Current ratio guidance reflects Hera's low to medium business risk profile. As part of its review, Moody's will also assess the evolution of Hera business risk resulting from the implementation of its investment plan. Overall, Moody's does not anticipate that any downgrade will be more than one notch.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Hera is considered a Government Related Issuer ("GRI") under Moody's methodology, in light of Hera's 15% ownership by the City of Bologna (rated Aa2/stable outlook). However, the company's current A1 rating does not benefit from any uplift from potential Government support.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The previous rating action on Hera was implemented on 26 January 2006, when Moody's first assigned a rating to the company.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Hera is one of the largest integrated multi-utilities in Italy, with particular focus on the region of Emilia Romagna, one of the wealthiest in the country. The company provides a variety of public services, including the sale and distribution of gas and electricity, the provision of integrated water services and urban and special waste collection and disposal services, as well as ancillary activities, such as district heating and public lighting. In the financial year ended 31 December 2008, the company recorded a turnover of approximately EUR3.7 billion[/FONT]

 

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Fitch a carrellata sulle utilities ed energy companies italiane. Il succo è che se le cose continueranno nella seconda metà dell'anno ad andare male come nella prima, talune utilities italiane andranno incontro ad un deterioramento del profilo di rischio finanziario che innescherà dei cali di rating.

La crisi infatti sta avendo un impatto sulle utilities che eccede quanto inizialmente stimato da Fitch...

Fitch: Italian Utilities Q109 Results Reflect Deepening Recession

21 May 2009 6:22 AM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-Milan/Barcelona/London-21 May 2009: Fitch Ratings says today that a larger-than-expected weakening of electricity and gas demand and a higher tax burden negatively impacted Italian utilities' cash flows and profitability margins in Q109.

In line with the assumptions outlined by Fitch in its 'Italian Utility Sector: 2009 Outlook', published in December 2008, the effects of the present economic climate differ across business segments, and any future rating actions will to a notable degree depend on the length and scale of the recession affecting Italy.

Fitch believes that the country's utility companies could experience a significant deterioration of credit metrics if the downturn maintains its current pace for the remainder of 2009.

The drop in first quarter electricity and gas volumes (-7.9% and -19% respectively compared with Q108) caused by the contraction in consumption, especially from industrial customers, coupled with a lower oil price environment has markedly impacted the profitability of Italian gas suppliers and un-hedged electricity generators.

In such an environment, only generators with a balanced portfolio across technologies and with comprehensive forward selling strategies are relatively well protected against margin pressure.

Enel Spa ('A-'/Rating Watch Negative) for example posted a 14% EBITDA increase for Q109 compared with Q108 due to its contracted capacity despite a slight reduction in revenues due to decreased demand. Enel's Rating Watch Negative reflects execution risks linked to a de-leveraging strategy tied to asset disposals and a capital increase.

Greater exposure to oil price volatility has affected Edison Spa's ('BBB+'/Stable) business profile. Edison's Outlook was revised to Stable from Positive in December 2008 following the debt-funded acquisition of upstream gas assets.

Eni Spa ('AA-'/Stable) Q109 results were affected by the decline in oil prices and lower gas sale volumes, which contributed to a 36% drop in adjusting operating profits compared with Q108. Eni's rating is nonetheless supported by its strong integrated business profile along the whole oil and gas value chain and a robust capital structure.

Integrated and regulated Italian utilities have shown a greater resilience to the recession. However, volume risk remains, especially for distribution companies like Acea Spa ('A+'/Negative).

Volume risk is less relevant for electricity transmission companies such as Terna Spa ('A'/Stable), as a recently introduced provision in the revenue-setting mechanism for transmission by the regulator established a revenue floor to protect margins in case of a significant drop in transported electricity.

Electricity prices in the first four months of the year dropped by 11% and by 17% on the same period last year, and the price decrease has continued so far in May. This does not affect forward contracts for deliveries in 2009, but the impact will be visible on 2010 profitability margins.

"The severity of the economic recession experienced in the first quarter of the year has extended beyond expectations. Signs of a recovery in the short-term remain weak and, at this stage, it is difficult to anticipate the turning point in the cycle.

Italian generators are now hedging their capacity for next year and present market fundamentals suggest that companies' profitability in 2010 could be significantly impacted," says Francesca Fraulo, Director in Fitch's Energy, Utilities and Regulation team for the EMEA region. (For further detail, see the April 2009 report, entitled 'Corporate Forecasts: Macro-Level Assumptions: April 2009 Update', which is available on the agency's subscriber website, www.fitchresearch.com.)

In Q109, energy and utility companies' cash flows were also negatively impacted by higher tax charges linked to the provision introduced in the 2009 budget law. The tax charge, known as the "Robin Hood Tax", increased the corporate income tax rate by 5.5% from 2008 to 33%. A recent proposal suggests the tax might be increased by a further 1% to 34% from 2009.

"The tax was introduced to help fund social subsidies to low income households after energy companies had benefited from peaking oil prices between 2007 and 2008. However, the oil price trend inverted just a few weeks after the introduction of the measure and since then the tax charges have absorbed substantial cash flow that otherwise would have been devoted to funding companies' capex budgets," Ms Fraulo adds.

As confirmed by a number of revised business plans, or lower capex spending in Q109 against original budgets, some utility companies have responded to decreasing oil prices and increased market uncertainty by scaling back, delaying or suspending investments.

This could limit their growth when the markets and energy demand recover, but cost savings and efficiency programmes, especially targeted at controlling working capital dynamics, have gained priority on management agendas. The scaling back of investment plans has, in some instances, been driven by a need to decrease leverage.

This was the rationale given by Enel for its 10% cut in capex. In other cases, companies have reduced capex spending as they wait to see how the economic climate develops and as they have sought to renegotiate supply contracts with this environment. Individual Outlooks and further information on the Italian utilities rated by Fitch, including recent rating actions, are available from the agency's public and subscriber websites: www.fitchratings.com and www.fitchresearch.com

 

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Anche Centrica, la principale utility energetica britannica (che ha recentemente emesso un bond in euro che ha riscosso un buon successo sull'euromercato) subisce un downgrade da parte di S&P.

La causa principale é anche qui da un lato negli investimenti (realizzati e attesi) con cui Centrica si rafforza nell'upstream (che nel settore energy consiste nella generazione energetica, mentre le attività distributive e di vendita al dettaglio costituiscono il downstream) così da passare dall'attuale 35% ad un 50-60% di generazione energetica da asset propri o da contratti di lungo termine rispetto al totale di quanto commercializzato.

Benché tali investimenti rafforzino la integrazione in verticale del ciclo energetico, così concorrendo a consolidare il profilo di business di Centrica, tale aspetto viene più che soverchiato, nel breve termine dall'indebolimento del profilo finanziario dell'emittente.

Centrica PLC Downgraded To 'A-/A-2' On Likely Further Investments; Outlook Stable

LONDON (Standard & Poor's) May 29, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long- and short-term corporate credit ratings on U.K. energy supplier Centrica PLC to 'A-/A-2' from 'A/A-1'. At the same time, the long-term rating on Centrica's subsidiary, British Gas Trading Ltd. (BGTL), was lowered to 'A-' from 'A'. All ratings were removed from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications on Jan. 13, 2009. The outlook on both Centrica and BGTL is stable.

"The downgrade reflects our expectation that Centrica will undertake material upstream investments over the medium term in order to meet its target energy hedge ratio of between 50% and 60%," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Mark Davidson. "This ratio, defined as the proportion of gas and electricity supply needs that are supplied from own assets or long-term contracts, is currently about 35%. Centrica is structurally short of both gas and electricity assets relative to its competitors in the energy supply market, which creates significant volatility in its consolidated cash flows."

On May 11, 2009, Centrica announced that it had reached a definitive agreement with French utility Electricité de France S.A. (EDF; A+/Negative/A-1) to acquire a 20% interest in British Energy Group PLC (BE; not rated), the U.K.'s leading nuclear operator. The agreement is for £2.3 billion. The resulting capacity increase would raise Centrica's energy hedge ratio to just over 45%.

In addition, Centrica is considering its options regarding its 23.6% holding in North Sea-based gas producer Venture Production PLC, which could include making a full offer for the company. The total cost of these moves, including existing Venture Production net debt, would be around £1.5 billion.

Standard & Poor's anticipates that these transactions would reduce Centrica's business risk by lowering its exposure to wholesale gas and electricity prices. However, the reduced business risk will be offset by higher financial risk, since Centrica's cash flow coverage of net adjusted debt would weaken.

We believe that if the transaction were not completed, Centrica would make other upstream investments of a similar magnitude to meet its energy hedge ratio target.

In our view, Centrica will maintain a ratio of adjusted funds-from-operations to debt of more than 35%, while significantly increasing its vertical hedge. Although we expect Centrica's cash flow volatility to reduce through investment in upstream activities, we believe that this volatility will likely remain above the level of a more fully integrated energy utility, or a utility that derives a significant portion of earnings from regulated operations.

We consider that Centrica has a degree of headroom at the current rating level.

 

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Domani aggiornerò i prezzi...

 

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Monitor bond Utilities (gruppo di lavoro: Alobar, I98mark).

AVVERTENZE

Fra festività in essere in mezza Europa e situazione della liquidità comunque non brillante sui mercati tedeschi in generale, l'aggiornamento dei prezzi, a 3 settimane di distanza dall'ultimo, é costato un enorme lavoro, tutto manuale, di verifica condotto su praticamente quasi tutti i prezzi.

L'EuroTlx ha pregio, nella sua dimensione rionale, che sui sui banchi la merce con il prezzo c'è quasi sempre. I mercati retail tedeschi invece fanno venire in mente, per la desolante situazione della liquidità, certi mercati sovietici prima della caduta dell'impero: una sequenza di scaffali desolatamente vuoti.

I ringraziamenti vanno sempre a Massimo S. che rende disponibili, per i bond illiquidi, i prezzi realizzati sui mercati professionali: fra i prezzi in tabella, sono di fonte ICMA quelli dei seguenti titoli (i prezzi sono quelli di venerdì 29 maggio).

EDF Tutti; E.On 05/2017 e 2020; RWE 2016 e 2018; Vattenfall 2011 e perpetual; EWE 2014; National Grid 03/2013, 05/2013 ; Veolia 2012, 2013 e 2017; Gruppo Suez 2010, 2012 e 2013; International Endesa 2013; Iberdrola 2010, 05/2013, 2015; Nederlandese Gasunie 2016; Hera 2016; Fortum 2010 e 2013;

Per i bond EnBW 2016 e 2025; RWE 2033; Vattenfall 2018 e 2024; Veolia 2020; Gruppo Suez 2015, 2018 e 2023; International Endesa 2013; Iberdrola 02/2013; National Grid 2018, 2020, 2022 e Nederlandese Gasunie 2021 si è reso necessario riprendere il prezzo Bloomberg (BBML) (i prezzi sono sempre quelli della chiusura di venerdì).

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Il periodo monitorato

Stessa zuppa come tre settimane fa: continua e si rafforza il movimento da esaurimento del flight to quality, quella che avevo chiamato "la voglia di normalità" dei mercati, di comportarsi come se questa crisi fosse come tutte le altre e fosse sostanzialmente archiviata, almeno per quanto riguarda il capitolo obbligazionario, avendo essa portato ad una riduzione dei tassi al livello minimo, dal quale la dinamica non potrà che ripartire.

I fenomeni osservati sono dunque i medesimi emersi già 3 settimane fa, e nel mentre si sono consolidati: calano i prezzi sui bond lunghi, crescono leggermente sui bond degli emittenti a fascia di rating più bassa del plotone delle utilities (Veolia e National Grid su tutti), recuperano benino un paio di perpetuals (il Vattenfall soprattutto, che qui si era consigliato un paio di mesi fa).

L'interrogativo del cosa succederà ci condiziona tutti, e continua a restare senza risposte.

Tovate il file allegato qui oltre che, come sempre, sul sito ventimaggio gestito da Maino ...

http://digilander.libero.it/ventimaggio/Finanza/Pagina dei files.html

La tabella dei prezzi, divisa in tre parti. Parte prima:

 

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la seconda parte della tabella...

 

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La terza parte della tabella...

 

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Tabella e grafici monitoraggio rendimenti...

La tabella, parte prima...

 

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La seconda parte

 

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Il primo grafico